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"You would have a great point, even if it were not for the fact that 40% of the vote in PA is cast in Philadelphia, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties."

First of all, Chester County isn't exactly RINO territory. Its black areas vote Democrat, but the rest of the county is solid Republican. The combined Philly, Bucks, Delaware and Montco vote was only 28.6% in 2000. And even if you threw in Chester County (with its Pennsylvania Dutch farmers and all), the percentage of the vote cast in Philly, Bucks, Delaware, Montco and Chester in the 2000 presidential election was only 32.4%, which, according to the immutable laws of mathematics, is still well below 40%.

"The bottom line is that Specter could still win 40% in Philadelphia, just as Sam Katz did."

Now that is just plain ridiculous. Specter couldn't win 40% in Philly in 1992, when he wasn't running against a Congressman from the Philly area, and when Philly was nowhere near as heavily Democrat as today. And Sam Katz can get over 40% of the vote in Philly IN A MAYORAL RACE against John Street, in which the issues are far different from a Senate race. For example, Katz got supermajorities among white Philadelphians in both the 1999 and 2003 mayoral races because of his emphasis on crime, which is for the most part a LOCAL ISSUE that has very little to do with a U.S. Senate race, since it's something U.S. Senators can't do a thing about. If Katz ran for the Senate against Joe Hoeffel, do you really think he would do anywhere near as well as in his mayoral race against John Street? It is just preposterous.

Whoever made you a "wizard" should take away your broom, because you could hurt yourself.

DRATS! You are correct. I had New York in mind when I was writing that. In New York, 40% of vote is cast in NYC and its suburbs. In Pennsylvania, 30% of the vote is cast in Philly and its suburbs. (It's why this state tends to be more Republican)

However, I disagree with you about Chester County. Republican Party officials there are not on the ball, and the percentages Republicans win there have been progressively decreasing. Remember, Reagan won 64% in the suburbs. That is no longer possible, but 55% should be do-able.

Tom Ridge won 33% of the vote in Philadelphia in 1998. Republicans cannot afford to only win 20% in that city. Please remember that Specter is a former countywide official in Philly and Philadelphia himself.