Poll Woes For Bush (CBS Poll) Kerry/Edwards 50% - W/Cheney 42%--W Approval@ 47%

cbsnews.com ^ | 02/28/04 | CBS/AP

[KQQL]

The four Democrats still officially seeking their party's presidential nod will debate Sunday for the last time before Super Tuesday, even as a new CBS News poll shows President Bush's approval rating slipping below 50 percent for the first time in that survey.

Some 47% of Americans now approve of the way the President is handling his job, while 44% disapprove.

The same poll shows a John Kerry/John Edwards ticket beating one headed by Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney in the fall election, by a margin of 50 percent to 42 percent.

Whether that difference is due more to the appeal of Kerry and Edwards together or suggests weak voter support for Cheney couldn't be determined in this poll.

In addition, it shows both Kerry and Edwards running about even with Mr. Bush in the fall if they ran without the other on their ticket.

Americans continue to express doubts about the situation in Iraq, and point to the economy and jobs as the issues they are most concerned about.

Still, voters said they expect a Bush win in November, although that view is less pervasive than it was in early January. Now, 48% expect Mr. Bush to win, and 42% see a Democrat winning the presidency. In January, 55% expected the president to be re-elected, and just 31% thought the Democratic candidate could prevail.

Kerry holds a wide lead over Edwards in the poll as the choice of Democratic voters both nationwide and in the ten states that vote on Tuesday.

That lead for the nomination is especially strong among those Democrats who say beating the president is more important than agreeing on the issues.

Both Kerry and Edwards have gained public favor since the Democratic campaign began. More Americans hold favorable views of both men than have unfavorable ones.

And in a sign of how much the Democratic race has changed since the first weeks of the year, one-third of Super Tuesday voters say they are former Howard Dean supporters. Today, most of those voters back John Kerry.

"Countdown to Super Tuesday: The Democrats Debate," sponsored by CBS News, WCBS-TV and The New York Times, will bring together Kerry, Edwards, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich in the CBS Broadcast Center in New York.

[DoughtyOne]

Listen guy, if you think these programs are an answer to what ails this nation, then please explain the net effect of what free labor under slavery brought us. Do you think that was a net gain over the hundreds of years?

Perhaps you have no exposure to areas where high immigrant populations are represented. The ghetofication of my region is chilling to watch. Legalizing the process would only legitimize the process. It's effect on the ghetofication would be negligable. It's effect on the financial drain would be negligable.

[Holden Magroin]

I think Bush has slipped a lot, but I don't trust a poll from CBS - the home of Dan Rather, the anti-Reagan mini-series, and Janet Jackson.

[JohnnyZ]

Listen guy, if you think these programs are an answer to what ails this nation, then please explain the net effect of what free labor under slavery brought us.

Whoa now, there's a big difference between slavery and high levels of legal immigration.

Legal immigration, as you pointed out, is much better than illegal in many ways.

I believe we can handle lots of legal immigration if we don't have illegal. We'd be much better off than we are now, at least.

The ghetofication of my region is chilling to watch.

Simple steps like not allowing bilingual education will eventually result in more integration. Just about every major immigrant group that has come to America has lived in ethnic ghettos.

[ARCADIA]

only in 1948 did the incumbent party split and win the election

I wasn't suggesting that we split the party. But, the GOP goof big time by not automatically giving Bush the nomination for 2004. There are better Republican candidates out there, and Kerry or Edwards are likely to do far better in the debates then that blockhead Gore. They should have open the floor to other players; GW is damaged goods and is likely to go the way of his father. This was the same arrogant decision making that led to a Dole run in 96.

[raloxk]

"There are better Republican candidates out there, and Kerry or Edwards are likely to do far better in the debates then that blockhead Gore"

all that does is divide the party like 1992 or 1980 like the DEMs and leads to a loss, you need to understand Presidential history. Yes, there are better Republicans than GW Bush, but they didnt run in 2000.

[TomasUSMC]

How long have we been waiting for the borders to be controlled? Since 1980, thats almost a quarter of a century, and during that time we have had a Republican in the White House for 16 of those years. The result? Nada, noting. It is not going to happen in the next four years even if we win every seat in the house and senate.

Lets face the facts. We are going to have open borders from the Arctic Circle to the Panama Canal. Its going to be like the European Union. The only thing you can do is not vote for it. That way you can hold your head high knowing you were not part of the surrendering of America. But what can you do to make it as positive a surrender as possible? What? You tell me. Because I don't know to much about that subject.

No Borders - No Votes/ Si Border - Si GOP Victory

[DrDeb]

1.) DISCLAIMER: Polls in February do NOT predict voter behavior in November! [NOTE: As Ambrose discovered last week, in March 1984, a Gallup poll indicated that GARY HART would defeat President Reagan by double digits!]

2.) CAVEAT: It appears that the "mainstream" pollsters have purposely changed their approach to 'sampling'. Beginning in mid-January, most pollsters began both to poll REGISTERED VOTERS vs Adults and to OVERSAMPLE Democrats in key states.

Relative to this current CBS Poll, the pollster OVERSAMPLED Democrats in the 10 states holding primaries on March 2. As raloxk noted, this approach seems to have produced a GROSS oversampling of Democrats -- 37% Democrats, 33% Independents and 29% Republicans -- skewing poll results accordingly!

3.) RELIABLE POLLSTERS: At present, I am closely watching the following polling services: Annenberg (boasts an MOE of +/- 2 -- the lowest among ALL current pollsters), Rasmussen (tracks 1,500 LIKELY VOTERS on a daily basis), and Zogby (the only pollster to track voter opinion in RED states vs BLUE states -- also the only pollster to admit that getting a VALID sample of Republicans/conservatives is VERY difficult so most pollsters don't do it!!!!)

ZOGBY
2/12-15/04
Likely Voters/MOE +/- 2.8

GWB Approval Ratings:
Red States -- 55% Excellent/Good
(translates to an approval rating proximating 60%)
Blue States-- 47% Excellent/Good

Head-to-Head Match-up:
Red States -- GWB 51% Kerry 39% (+12)
Blue States -- GWB 46% Kerry 47% (-1)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=808


ANNENBERG
2/11-19/04
Adults/MOE +/- 2

GWB Approval Rating:
55% approve 42% disapprove (+13)

over 60% believe the President is a strong leader
http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2004_03_guard-and-vietnam_02-20_pr.pdf


RASMUSSEN:
2/26-28/04
Likely Voters +/-3

GWB Approval Rating:
54% approval

Head-to-Head Match-Up:
Bush 48% Kerry 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/


4.) GOOD NEWS FROM FLORIDA:

Research 2000 for South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union
Likely Voters
2/24-25/04

GWB Favorability:
58% favorable 38% unfavorable (+20)

Head-to-Head Match-Up
Bush 47% Kerry 42%

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-afloridapoll29feb29,0,3146156.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines


THE ONLY SURVEY WE SHOULD CONCERN OURSELVES WITH AT THIS POINT IS THE ONE THAT WILL BE RELEASED NEXT FRIDAY (March 5) -- THE JOBS REPORT FOR FEBRUARY!!!

If this report is positive, i.e., exceeds analyst expectations, the President's approval ratings/match-ups will get a boost. If not . . . we'll have to wait until March!!

Remember, we're involved in an election marathon NOT a sprint!

[JohnnyZ]

There's only one possible response to that:

WE'RE DOOMED

[sinkspur]

Thanks, Doctor. You're doing yeoman's work, and backing it up with statistical FACTS!

[lasereye]

If this report is positive, i.e., exceeds analyst expectations,

... it will be portrayed as some kind of anomaly by the media.

[Bombard]

All good points. I would feel better about Zogby if his brother was not tied so closely with the Dems.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Deluded to the end I suppose. Bush could do little right which would please you as far as I can see. Buchanan's ridiculous world view can't even recognize the necessity to remove a Saddam from Kuwait.

[COEXERJ145]

I'm of the opinion that polls like this are done for one reason, to discourage Republicans and Bush supporters. I've had to listen to my family since this poll came out talking about how Bush has lost and Kerry will be President. They won't listen to me explain that this is Feb. and polls mean jack right now and that polls can be rigged very easily.

[futureceo31]

As DrDeb put it, its the blue states and the red states that matter. Its really interesting that the public thinks that we arent doing well in Iraq when February had the lowest number of casualties and we havent had one death in 10 days. We have accomplished so much in one year, and if someone had said last march that it would only take 500 or so deaths to do what we have to do, people would think we are crazy. Even though every death matters, we have had only 300 something casualties due ot hostile fire which is amazing, no matter how you look at it.
Also, looks like there might be at least 125k jobs added to the payroll in february and by november, we are looking at a net increase in probably million plus jobs. And Al Quaeda is running scared. I think its actually good that we are coming from behind, since it gives urgency to the base and we all know what a scumbucket Kerry is.
Also, look at the ground movement that has been galvanized by the republican party already and the Rats are still fighting amongst themselves.
So overall, we are in very good shape. Everryone knew this election was going to be close but looking at the red states blue states numbers I am feeling very confident that Pres Bush will pull a win.

[PeteFromMontana]

Wow....I mean...WOW... A lot of work went into this one. Thank you so much!

[longtermmemmory]

The comments about oversampling are worth the BUMP!

[DefCon]

Thank you for that information.

[SunkenCiv]

I'd love to see the actual questions asked, and the actual democratic, oops, demographics of those asked.

[SunkenCiv]

NAFTA -- successful vote spearheaded by Bill Clinton. I support it, but those who don't will have Bill Clinton to thank. And if they try to blame job losses on it, they can't blame President Bush.

[veronica]

Relative to this current CBS Poll, the pollster OVERSAMPLED Democrats in the 10 states holding primaries on March 2. As raloxk noted, this approach seems to have produced a GROSS oversampling of Democrats -- 37% Democrats, 33% Independents and 29% Republicans -- skewing poll results accordingly!

CBS polls have in the past been skewed Democrat.

As I have posted in the past, GWB is in the unenviable position of having to beat Kerry AND the mainstream press, which is clearly interested in defeating Bush. It's so unfair. It's also unfortunate that Howard Dean came off as such a leftwing kook, because Kerry is the leftwing kook, but it will be more difficult to brand him as such now due to Dean. Yet I have faith that things will work out in GWB's favor.