2004 Senate Election List

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[ER_in_OC,CA]

Here are the Senators whose term expires in 2005 (meaning elections in November 2004).

Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2005

Democrats
Bayh, Evan
Boxer, Barbara
Breaux, John
Daschle, Thomas
Dodd, Christopher
Dorgan, Byron
Edwards, John
Feingold, Russell
Graham, Bob
Hollings, Ernest
Inouye, Daniel
Leahy, Patrick
Lincoln, Blanche
Mikulski, Barbara
Miller, Zell
Murray, Patty
Reid, Harry
Schumer, Charles
Wyden, Ron



Republicans
Bennett, Robert
Bond, Christopher
Brownback, Sam
Bunning, Jim
Campbell, Ben Nighthorse
Crapo, Mike
Fitzgerald, Peter
Grassley, Chuck
Gregg, Judd
McCain, John
Murkowski, Frank (elected AK Governor, will be filled by appointee)
Nickles, Don
Shelby, Richard
Specter, Arlen
Voinovich, George

[Jeb08]

OK, folks, here is how it will go.

Fritz Hollings is finished. Whether or not he runs, Rep. Joe Wilson is a lock to run and win that Senate seat. End of story. The Dems' cupboard is bare.

The media's golden boy, John Edwards, is likely to be defeated, but only by the right opponent. The best man for the job is Rep. Richard Burr.

Rep. David Dreier and NSA Advisor Condoleezza Rice would be phenomenal candidates against Boxer, but I doubt if either will run. Rep. Chris Cox is an excellent option, although he may be too conservative for the state and has given no indication that he will run.

Wouldn't it be great to get rid of both Boxer and Murray, who rode the feminist wave of the unspeakable horror that was the Clarence Thomas confirmation? Jennifer Dunn is a classy, conservative woman who would be a perfect contrast to Murray.

John Thune, after being narrowly defeated by Tim Johnson, should be set up perfectly to take on Daschle in 2004. Daschle was never a strong leader and was humiliated on Election Night. He may not even run again. I believe that Thune will run either way.

Former Gov. Ed Schafer will almost certainly run against Byron Dorgan, but do not underestimate Dorgan. He is an aggressive campaigner and is socially conservative, similar to Tim Johnson. Still, this would be a dogfight.

OK, I have an announcment to make: Ralph Reed is AWESOME! Thumping Max Cleland, stunning Roy Barnes and keeping control of the competitive House seats (not to mention defeating the State House Speaker and State Senate President) was nothing short of remarkable. We need to get Reed into Congress. In 2004, he will be 43 and ready to run. I am almost certain that Zell Miller will step down; Reed would be a shoo-in for victory. If he chooses to hold off, Rep. Jack Kingston would be a formidable candidate.

If Evan Bayh runs again, he will be tough to beat; either way, we will need a strong candidate. Forget David McIntosh; he flopped against O'Bannon in the 2000 Governor's race. How about Dan Quayle? His national (unfair) reputation notwithstanding, he is tremendously popular in Indiana. He could beat Bayh and would easily win an open seat.

Chuck Schumer is a GREAT politician, and he handled September 11 extremely well, but his radical position on abortion means that he must go. Unfortunately, only Rudy Giuliani has even a snowball's chance of knocking him off, and I'm not sure he will risk his career on a race that is this tough to win. A hidden star for the Republicans is my local Congressman, Buffalo's Jack Quinn. Hey, it's about time that we got some national representation! We'll see what happens.

In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold is an honorable guy, but there is not enough room in this chat forum to fulfill his liberalism. He only won by two points in 1998, and if Tommy Thompson runs, he could knock off Feingold. 1998 nominee Marc Neumann would also be a decent candidate. Still, I can't see Feingold losing.

Blanche Lincoln, the freshman Senator from Arkansas, is moderate and popular. We would need a blockbuster candidate, like former Rep. and drug czar Asa Hutchinson. But Hutchinson may be waiting for a judicial nomination, and voters soundly rejected his brother this past cycle.

In Connecticut, Chris Dodd looks untouchable, but he may retire, and popular Gov. John Rowland looks like a formidable candidate should be decide to run. Still, Connecticut seems to be getting more liberal by the hour. Dodd will most likely prevail.

I frankly cannot see how Bob Graham loses. A previous chatter mentioned John Delaney and Tillie Fowler, and I'm sure that we could find a decent candidate. But Graham destoyed his opponent in 1998. However, the GOP's resounding victory on Election Night could signify trouble for Graham.

In other races: a well-known moderate Republican could be elected in Hawaii if Daniel Inouye retires. John Breaux is a lock for re-election if he runs again; if he retires, Reps. David Vitter and Billy Tauzin would be strong candidates. Barbara Mikulski looks like a shoo-in in Maryland; the only viable Republican candidate is defeated Rep. Connie Morella, but she is liberal and will be 73. Kevin Mannix almost pulled a stunner in the Oregon gubernatorial race, but he would be a long shot at best against Ron Wyden. Finally, Republicans can kiss Vermont good-bye; Pat Leahy is in for another six. (@#$@#%#$@!!!)

Next up: My analysis of Republican seats.

[nospinzone]

In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold is an honorable guy, but there is not enough room in this chat forum to fulfill his liberalism. He only won by two points in 1998, and if Tommy Thompson runs, he could knock off Feingold. 1998 nominee Marc Neumann would also be a decent candidate. Still, I can't see Feingold losing.

What about Ed Thompson, Tommy's brother? He didn't do too bad for a third party candidate. Any chance Bush could convince him to switch to the GOP for a Senate run?

I don't really know that much about Ed, so if there's a reason why he wouldn't be palatable to the GOP someone let me know.

[Jeb08]

Good call, nospinzone - I forgot about Ed Thompson, although libertarians usually try to distance themselves from Republicans. Wisconsin is a socially liberal state, but I think that many voters would welcome an alternative to Feingold's tax-and-spend liberalism.

Analysis of Republican seats:

Nobody seems to be talking about Alaska, but I have a feeling that it's gone. With Gov.-elect Frank Murkowski on his way to the statehouse, there are no viable Republicans (that I know of; after all, this is Alaska) waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, popular outgoing Gov. Tony Knowles is the likely Democratic nominee. There's only one question: will Alaska voters elect a Democrat to Congress?

I hate to smile on anyone's failures, but we all breathed a sigh of relief with Paul Patton's embarassing fall from grace. I think that he would have stood a real chance of defeating Sen. Jim Bunning, a shaky incumbent at best. The Democrats had put all their eggs in one basket, and now their bench looks empty. Bunning is by no means a lock for re-election, but he will be the only heavyweight in this race.

What a race Illinois will showcase in 2004. Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, who many people underestimate, ousted Carol Mosely-Braun in 1998, but he will face another stiff challenge this time around. If the fallout for George Ryan's corrupt tenure is over, then the GOP has a chance to rebound. I must say, I am much more impressed with Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. than I am with his father. His liberalism would play well in Chicago but may alientae suburban voters. The Dems have several decent candidates, but no great ones; I still think Fitzgerald is the favorite to hold this seat.

An open letter to John McCain: please go away. Retire, resign, whatever; just leave us alone. You are a war hero who has served this country well, but that is not an excuse for your mean-spirited crusades in the 2000 presidential campaign. The Democratic party in Arizona is nonexistent at the national level. GOP candidates could include outgoing Gov. Jane Hull or Reps. Jeff Flake or J.D. Hayworth. The only hope I see for the Dems is Bruce Babbitt coming out of retirement, but I don't think that will happen.

I have a feeling that popular Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a fine man, may step down in 2004. If he runs again, he is a lock for re-election; if he doesn't, the Republicans could replace him with an even stronger candidate, Gov. Bill Owens. The only viable Democratic candidate is Rep. Mark Udall, an environmentalist, but I doubt that this seat will change hands. After all, if the Democrats can't beat Wayne Allard, who can they beat?

Who says that Sen. Judd Gregg is vulnerable? Who's going to beat him - Jeanne Shaheen? Dick Swett? I don't think so. Gregg will cruise to re-election.

I've never been crazy about moderate Sen. George Voinovich, and I've been hearing that he is "disenchanted" with Washington and may retire. The Democratic party in Ohio couldn't elect a dog-catcher; former Rep. John Kasich would be a tremendous candidate. If not him, then look out for another quietly rising superstar: Rep. Rob Portman. Portman may be in the White House someday.

Six more years of Arlen Specter? It looks that way. Don't get me wrong - I respect him tremendously, but he is too moderate and he comes across as wishy-washy. I hear that he has already started to build up his war chest for 2004. I hate to sound like a broken record, but the Democrats cannot get a Senator elected in the Keystone State; they barely even elected Ed Rendell! Still, I would love to see Specter replaced on the ballot with Gov. Mark Schweiker, although we don't know where he stands on the issues. Tom Ridge would be a great candidate, but he already has a job. Stay tuned on this one.

Every other GOP seat looks safe: Shelby in Alabama, Grassley in Iowa, Crapo in Idaho (unless he is appointed to the bench, in which case he would be replaced by Rep. Mike Simpson), future President Brownback in Kansas, and Nickles in Oklahoma. If Sen. Bob Bennett retires in Utah, he may be replaced by 49ers legend Steve Young or Gov. Mike Leavitt.

I welcome your comments and responses.

[GraniteStateConservative]

OK, I have an announcment to make: Ralph Reed is AWESOME! Thumping Max Cleland, stunning Roy Barnes and keeping control of the competitive House seats (not to mention defeating the State House Speaker and State Senate President) was nothing short of remarkable. We need to get Reed into Congress. In 2004, he will be 43 and ready to run. I am almost certain that Zell Miller will step down; Reed would be a shoo-in for victory. If he chooses to hold off, Rep. Jack Kingston would be a formidable candidate.

Being a good strategist is different from being a good candidate. He should work on winning Miller's seat, who is likely to retire. If he wins that, he'll be a favorite for RNC chair.

[Jeb08]

Good point, GraniteStateConservative, but don't forget that George H.W. Bush was the RNC Chairman before he became president. Still, I see your point. If we can find another electable candidate in Georgia, then I'm all for it.

Oh, and I forgot a minor detail: I will be running against Hillary Clinton for the Senate in 2012, assuming that she is still there. I will be 30 at that time, which would make me the second-youngest person ever to be elected Senator. I won't reveal my name for security reasons, but you will know me soon enough. I'll appreciate you votes and donations in 10 years. More to come on my impending candidacy.

[GraniteStateConservative]

What's your 10-year strategy?

[nospinzone]

Good call, nospinzone - I forgot about Ed Thompson, although libertarians usually try to distance themselves from Republicans. Wisconsin is a socially liberal state, but I think that many voters would welcome an alternative to Feingold's tax-and-spend liberalism.

I wasn't sure what kind of libertarian Ed was, whether he was running as a third party candidate just because the Republican slot was occupied, or if he's been a libertarian for a while. Some Libertarians are such because they don't believe Republicans are genuine about smaller government. Perhaps if Ed is close enough policy wise, a promise of strong backing from the White House may be enough to get him in the race.

Nobody seems to be talking about Alaska, but I have a feeling that it's gone. With Gov.-elect Frank Murkowski on his way to the statehouse, there are no viable Republicans (that I know of; after all, this is Alaska) waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, popular outgoing Gov. Tony Knowles is the likely Democratic nominee. There's only one question: will Alaska voters elect a Democrat to Congress?

It'll hinge on who Murkowski appoints. I think only then we'll know. At the very least Alaska leans GOP and Bush will be on the ballot, two ingrediants that may help.

If Fitzgerald and Bunning have a favorable year that will probably shut out any chance the Dems have to pick up a seat. Everyone else seems set (Although Alaska is still uncertain.)

I have a feeling that popular Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a fine man, may step down in 2004. If he runs again, he is a lock for re-election; if he doesn't, the Republicans could replace him with an even stronger candidate, Gov. Bill Owens. The only viable Democratic candidate is Rep. Mark Udall, an environmentalist, but I doubt that this seat will change hands. After all, if the Democrats can't beat Wayne Allard, who can they beat?

Maybe Strickland will make an umpteenth try to win if there's an open seat. After having Wayne Allard beat him twice, he's probably toast.

I've never been crazy about moderate Sen. George Voinovich, and I've been hearing that he is "disenchanted" with Washington and may retire. The Democratic party in Ohio couldn't elect a dog-catcher; former Rep. John Kasich would be a tremendous candidate. If not him, then look out for another quietly rising superstar: Rep. Rob Portman. Portman may be in the White House someday.

Hmmmm....what's Voinovich's beef? I can't say I'm familiar with the guy.

I notice we haven't been doing too shabby in Oregon. Bush and Gore were nearly tied in that state, as was the governor's race, Gordon Smith won reelection handily and the state rejected socialized health care 80% to 20%. Perhaps we may give Wyden a real contest. Same for Washington state.

Bob Graham may have dominated in 1998 but let's face it, that wasn't the GOP's best year. Another one that could be a real contest.

I think Daschle will retire. He will probably win reelection, but odds are he'll have to wait until 2008 before the Dems have any real chance of taking back the Senate and he'll have to stew in the minority until then.

Harry Reid narrowly lost last time. If he goes and Daschle retires, the Dems will have two leaderships slots to fill.

[Jeb08]

I don't have one yet.

I will not begin by campaign until 2011, but I plan to run on a conservative, issue-oriented, grassroots platform which will involve traveling all over the state and, hopefully, debating my opponent often.

I do not plan to go into elected politics before the Senate Race; instead, I intend to make my name as a lawyer and a writer. I am only 20, so I have plenty of time to think about my campaign strategy.

Any other questions you have, I would be happy to answer.

[Jeb08]

Where is everybody?

[GoldenBear]

I think your view of Colorado is accurate. There is strong talk that Cong. Tancredo will challenge Campbell in a primary. That would be interesting. If Campbell does not run look for Cong. McInnis to run. McInnis hold Campbell's old congressional seat (when Campbell was a democrat) and has received at least 65% of the vote in a even district.

[Jeb08]

I have come to believe that Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan is the strongest candidate to take on Graham. I would love to see Graham defeated. The resounding GOP victory in 2000 can be construed as a repudiation of the Democrats' antics in 2000. I would be interested to see what Graham's approval ratings are like.

If any of you know a way that we can help defeat McCain in 2004, please let me know. I live in Buffalo, but I would be willing to do anything necessary to get rid of him.

I have been exhaustively searching for an opponent for Leahy in Vermont, but the best I can do is state House Speaker Walt Freed, who seems like a longshot at best. Skip Vallee, the Burlington, VT GOP Chairman, is also a possibility.

I am a bit concerned about House races - as Roll Call states, the GOP won most of the close races in 2002, making several incumbents vulnerable for 2004.

[GraniteStateConservative]

This is all or nothing. Either Bush wins or the party loses. 2004 will be a referendum on Republican leadership. Bush's re-election would be approval of that leadership and would result in big gains in the House and Senate (and governorships like Missouri, and possible Indiana and others). If Bush loses, the GOP will suffer major losses elsewhere.

[Jeb08]

New info on conservative uprising for 2004: Club for Growth may endorse Rep. Jeff Flake to run against McPain in Arizona, while Rep. Pat Toomey is the choice to unseat Arlen Specter.

How about Gary Bauer for Gov. of KY?

[nospinzone]

I am a bit concerned about House races - as Roll Call states, the GOP won most of the close races in 2002, making several incumbents vulnerable for 2004.

The GOP also lost a few vulnerable seats this time around. I'm not sure off the top of my head who is still vulnerable on our side except for Anne Northup in Kentucky and Capito in West Virgina (though the Dems failed to oust them this time around)

There are still some areas we can make gains, though. Anyone have a good idea where we can go?

[Tennessean4Bush]

his state (PA) leans Republican

This the same PA that went for Gore in 2000? Something happen there in the meantime we should all know about?

[JohnnyZ]

A couple of things to add to Dutchgirl's great analysis:

Colorado: If the 'Rats can't beat Wayne Allard, they can't beat anyone??? I don't think so. For all that Allard is low-key, he's such a principled man and upstanding senator that when push comes to shove no one will vote against him, which is how he busted out the strong win this year. Ben Nighthorse Campbell should romp to victory again: he anticipates a challenge from Rep. Udall, Denver mayor Webb, or CO AG Salazar, and has all but formerly announced he's running for reelection.

North Carolina: The NCGOP is very motivated to beat John Edwards. Every month he spends campaigning for president is 0.5% off his 2004 vote. I can't wait to vote him out of office!!

South Carolina: There's not much keeping Hollings in the senate now that he's lost his chairmanship. If he retires, it's likely GOP; if he runs it's a tossup.

Georgia: Zell will win if he runs -- he's enormously popular. If he doesn't run, it's likely GOP -- if an incumbent Vietnam vet 'Rat can lose, the 'Rats stand no chance in an open seat fight.

New York: I think Giuliani will run, and Chuck Schumer just isn't big-time enough to face America's mayor. If Giuliani runs, it's likely GOP.

Kentucky: Has been getting more Republican by the minute. McConnell just won 2-1 over Combs Weinberg. Moderate D Rep. Ken Lucas could give Bunning a run for his money, but still leans GOP.

Indiana: Bayh is staying out of presidential politics until 2008 -- he wins again.

Missouri: Might Kit Bond face a tough time? He won a very close election in 98. Any idea who would challenge him?

Arkansas: Gov. Huckabee has indicated that he'll run against Blanche Lincoln "if the President says he needs me". I interpret that as he's begging to run but doesn't want to announce a week after being reelected governor that he won't serve out his 4 years. This is a tossup.

Alaska: Tony Knowles is trying to deny he's running for senate in 2004. Fran Ulmer could run, though. Still, this is still Likely GOP territory.

Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson said he only wants to serve 2 years as HHS secretary. He's the most popular politician in the state.

Nevada: I'd be shocked if Harry Reid didn't run again. He's too much in love with himself not to. Unfortunately he's gotten some points for opposing Yucca, and might eek out another win even over a strong challenger.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Most all of the fair-fight districts went our way (pretty much all except for Gekas's seat). The tide could turn against us and wash all of them out. The new seats in CO, AZ, NV, and CT just to name a few could be up for grabs.

GOP House targets for 2004 (partial):

• AR-01: Marion Berry

• AR-04: Mike Ross

• AZ-07: Raul Grijalva

• CA-18: Dennis Cardoza

• CA-39: Linda Sanchez

• GA-03: Jim Marshall

• IA-03: Leonard Boswell

• IN-07: Julia Carson

• IN-09: Baron Hill

• KS-03: Dennis Moore

• KY-04: Rep. Ken Lucas

• MD-02: Dutch Ruppersberger

• ME-02: Michael Michaud

• MS-05: Gene Taylor

• NC-13: Brad Miller

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy

• NV-01: Shelley Berkley

• NY-01: Tim Bishop

• OH-17: Tim Ryan

• OR-05: Darlene Hooley (country star Sara Evans' hubby will make a second run at the nomination-- and will have loads of cash)

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski

• PA-13: Joe Hoeffel

• PA-17: Tim Holden

• TN-04: Lincoln Davis

• TN-05: Jim Cooper

• TN-08: John Tanner

• TX-04: Ralph Hall

• TX-11: Chet Edwards

• TX-17: Charlie Stenholm

• TX-25: Chris Bell

• UT-02: Jim Matheson

• WA-02: Rick Larsen

[JohnnyZ]

KY-04: Rep. Ken Lucas

Lucas has pledged that this (2002) is his last term in the House. He will have to break that pledge to run again or seek office elsewhere, probably vs. Sen. Bunning, possibly for Governor.

The district is conservative and an open seat should go GOP.

[GraniteStateConservative]

North Carolina: The NCGOP is very motivated to beat John Edwards. Every month he spends campaigning for president is 0.5% off his 2004 vote. I can't wait to vote him out of office!!

You won't get the chance. He won't be on the ballot for Senate in 2004. This will be an open seat. I'm certain of it. South Dakota will be an open seat, too. Daschle showed today (and at other times) that George W. Bush has driven him stark-raving mad. He'll quit and Thune will win this race easily.

[GraniteStateConservative]

That Yucca Mountain thing didn't hurt any Republican in Nevada this year. I don't buy that it's that harmful of an issue when any number of Republicans (including Gov. Guinn) takes him on.