2004 Senate Election List

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[ER_in_OC,CA]

Here are the Senators whose term expires in 2005 (meaning elections in November 2004).

Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2005

Democrats
Bayh, Evan
Boxer, Barbara
Breaux, John
Daschle, Thomas
Dodd, Christopher
Dorgan, Byron
Edwards, John
Feingold, Russell
Graham, Bob
Hollings, Ernest
Inouye, Daniel
Leahy, Patrick
Lincoln, Blanche
Mikulski, Barbara
Miller, Zell
Murray, Patty
Reid, Harry
Schumer, Charles
Wyden, Ron



Republicans
Bennett, Robert
Bond, Christopher
Brownback, Sam
Bunning, Jim
Campbell, Ben Nighthorse
Crapo, Mike
Fitzgerald, Peter
Grassley, Chuck
Gregg, Judd
McCain, John
Murkowski, Frank (elected AK Governor, will be filled by appointee)
Nickles, Don
Shelby, Richard
Specter, Arlen
Voinovich, George

[ER_in_OC,CA]

My quick-take on most beatable Dems: Boxer, Dorgan, Graham, Hollings, Reid.

My quick-take on hardest Reps to defend: Fitzgerald, Gregg, Specter.

Your thoughts? Time to start the planning today. Work locally to expose your Dem senator's bad votes.

[BushRep]

Corrections:

There is no Democrat in Pennsylvania who can take on Santorum. He will clobber whoever runs against him in 2004.

Please don't buy the liberal bias that Pennsylvania is Democrat-friendly. We are not, and the General Assembly is evidence of the fact.

Judd Gregg is a very popular New Hampshire politician who will breeze over any Democrat. Guys, Republicans picked up seats in the New Hampshire House and Senate, extending our already 2-1 lead in one body. We're back to the early 20th century in New Hampshire.

Bennett, Bond, Brownback, Crapo, Grassley, Gregg, McCain, Nickles, Shelby, Specter, and Voinovich are shoo-ins.

We might have possible problems with Bunning, Campbell, Fitzgerald, and the Alaska seat.

Even then, who can beat Bunning now that Patton is gone? Who can beat Campbell now that we've proven Colorado is solid GOP territory? Who can win Alaska? It was supposed to lean Democrat. Fitzgerald is our only vulnerable seat.

In contrast, those Democrats seats provide a lot of opportunities where we do very well-Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, South Dakota, North Dakota, and South Carolina.

Say, Yucca Mountain really did cause a Bush backlash, didn't it? I think the GOP swept every statewide position.

Any thoughts on Louisiana this year and in 2004?

[longtermmemmory]

Boxer can be made vulnerable if the Dems actually lurch further left. (this seems the case) If boxer is seen and being anti-US then perhaps. It also depends what Gray Davis does in CF. He has two years to deal with the white elephant ecconomy he has created/creating.

[BushRep]

The Liutenant Govenor of Kentucky has been indicted for defrauding Medicare and Medicaid.

Looks like Patton is finished, so is Henry.

I think we will pick up that Governorship next year.

What we need to do in California is get somebody right now who is ready and willing to run. I would prefer a Congressman or Congresswoman.

[thingumbob]

Landreau is toast. We're going to win it if we let Terrell show us the way and have G.W. pay her a visit just before the election just like he did for all the others.

Breaux will remain loyal to the Dem's and make deals with the Bush Brigade to assure his re-election in the state as a Dem. The only way I can see that changing is if Daschle and Company push Breaux over the edge from within their caucus.

Tommy boy has probably ticked Breaux off already though. So I'll bet he'll be receiving the special "Kidd Glove" treatment.

[BlackRazor]

Who can beat Campbell now that we've proven Colorado is solid GOP territory? Who can win Alaska? It was supposed to lean Democrat.

Current Alaska governor Tony Knowles has been rumored to have interest in a Senate run. Fran Ulmer is another possibility. Whomever Murkowski appoints as his Senate successor will have lower name ID than either of those two potential candidates. I expect this to be a very competitive race.

There have also been rumors that Ben Nighthorse Campbell may retire and not seek reelection in CO. Governor Bill Owens has been rumored to have possible interest if that happens; otherwise, it becomes a competitive open seat race.

[Brandon]

Bad news: GOP has no candidate who can take on Boxer

Well, I'm not a Californian, so take this with a grain of salt, but what about Ah-nold? Plus, no matter who the GOP candidate is, there will have been two more years of Grayout in the governor's mansion, and the GOP will have an opportunity to tie Boxer to Davis, and maybe, just maybe, the voters will take out their dislike of Davis on Boxer, ince they won't be able to get at him in 2004.

[DownWithGreenspan]

Fitzgerald may be in trouble, or we may be reading too much into the leftward lurch in Illinois we saw on Tuesday. The pendulum has a way of reversing direction in a 2-year period. BagOShitich will push a lot of "moderates" away from the Dems and over to the Republicans.

Gregg is in no trouble at all in NH, not to mention the Dems have nobody to run against him (Shaheen again?!?).

Specter is in no trouble - except in a primary I HOPE - in PA. If he retires (please do!), Mark Schweiker or Melissa Hart would be very popular candidates to replace him.

DWG

[lasereye]

I doubt Hollings is vulnerable. What about Murray?

[BlackRazor]

I doubt Hollings is vulnerable.

I think he has to be considered a prime target. He'll be a couple months shy of 83 years old in November 2004 (not that that ever hurt Strom Thurmond!), he drew less than 53% of the vote last time, he's made some very negative (and downright silly) comments about President Bush these last couple years, and Bush himself will be on the ballot in a strong GOP state. I would expect 2004 to be Hollings' toughest challenge yet (assuming a strong challenger, of course).

[ER_in_OC,CA]

The consensus top choice (here in So. Cal) for a person to challenge Boxer is Congressman Chris Cox. He is an articulate Reagan Republican with an axe to grind against Boxer.

Here is my memory: during the Bush transition, he was rumored to be a candidate for a Federal Court Bench appointment, but Boxer & Feinstein blue-slipped/blocked him. (Someone correct my memory.)

In the aftermath, Cox made a veiled comment about how that decision could come back to haunt Boxer. (not his words exactly).

[BushRep]

I think Cox would be assured to get the 42% that the brilliant Bill Simon won.

Boxer, like most other California Democrats, seems stuck in the mid to high-40s%.

Whoever we run needs to get started NOW!

Anyone think we should run Arnie now? Or should we wait until 2006? Arnie would clobber Boxer....

[DownWithGreenspan]

I think he has to be considered a prime target

Ditto, but somehow this cadaver (like Harkin in Iowa) slides on through every six years. And Fritz is even MORE out-of-touch with the political climate in his state than Harkins is in his.

Who can the Republicans get to oust this anachronism? Does Carroll Campbell have any political capital left in SC? What about Charlie Condon? If neither of those, then perhaps congressman Jim DeMint can give it a shot.

DWG

[BushRep]

The only reason why California and New Jersey are not joining the Republican national trend is a very poor state organization in each state. There are many Republicans who might as well be Democrats, and then you have crazy ideologues who can't understand that you can't elect a real conservative until you elect moderate Republicans who move the state from liberalism.

We won every state where we have an organization running, regardless of the Democrats.

[BushRep]

Campbell is sick, and he is retiring from public life.

I think one of the Congressional delegation will step up to the plate.

The bigger question is who do Democrats nominate? Sanders again?

[BoomerBob]

If Campbell decides to run again in Colorado he will be a slam dunk (he won with over 60% of the vote in '98). If Campbell steps down, its hard not to see Owens running for the spot and of course he was just re-elected with 63% of the vote.

I wondered about Arnold running for Senate instead of Gov. I'm not sure if that would interest him or not but I suspect he would stand a good chance of winning and the press would love to have him elected just for the ratings alone.

The best place to look for strong candidates who might run against the GOP incumbent would be states with popular Democratic governors. Of course a lot will change in 2 years, hopefully to the betterment of the GOP.

[The Old Hoosier]

I don't like Arnie as a candidate. He's too liberal and too stupid. He would melt on the campaign trail.

[thingumbob]

AH-nold sure sounds appealing to me....from what I've observed over the years he seems business smart and likeable.

Of course it could never hurt to have a Kennedy by your side either....gee it might be interesting to see how the Dem's would handle that issue?

His checkered past really can't be an issue in CA can it?

Maybe he could run for Senator and if he loses he could always run for Governor in 2006.

[thingumbob]

The best place to look for strong candidates who might run against the GOP incumbent would be states with popular Democratic governors. Of course a lot will change in 2 years, hopefully to the betterment of the GOP.

Yeah the new increase in taxes in those states will start to have an effect on the voter base possible pushing them toward the republicans maybe?