Posted on 08/06/2016 8:36:45 AM PDT by kerry431
DON’T BELIEVE THE POLLS . . . EVEN FOX NEWS POLLS: Think about this for a second – While Roger Ailes was running FOX News, Trump was either tied or winning in just about every category against Hillary Clinton. But, since he was politely let go by Rupert Murdoch, for supposedly making lascivious and salacious advances to some of the women on Fox News, as a result, Papa Murdoch’s LEFT LEANING SONS, replaced Ailes in the BIG PICTURE decision making of the News Channel, and all of a sudden, Trump isn’t doing any better in the FOX News Polls, than he’s doing amongst the Heavily Loaded ANTI-TRUMP CNN, ABC, NBC, MSNBC and CBS Polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at galganov.com ...
Don’t trust the media...all of them. Vote.
I believe these media outlets hire polling companies to do the polls. These companies have no vested interest in being proved wrong. After elections, they get bragging rights - or do damage control - over who was most correct. This is important as these companies compete for private marketing clients when there are no elections.
The polls have different results. That is more a function of how they forecast the electorate than any bias in the outcome.
Trump is behind, as of now. Whether he can make up ground depends upon whether he can convince people they want him as POTUS, as well as factors beyond either candidate’s control, such as major terrorists attacks.
I just posted this to another thread:
What nobody is talking about, and they eventually will be, is “The Enthusiasm Factor.”
So called “likely voters” are, at best, taken as percentages from (usually) the 2012 election. That will absolutely not apply for two reasons.
First, Trump supporters (such as myself) will crawl across broken glass to vote for him. I’ll go door to door knocking and giving rides to anyone with Trump enthusiasm to get them to the polls. And I ain’t alone. I changed my registration from independent to pubbie just to vote for Trump.
Second, other than the msm, NOBODY likes Hillary. Everyone voting for her will reluctantly go holding their nose. (Or coerced, but that’s normal—won’t skew the true likely voter %).
Look at their respective rallies. Compare and contrast the total primary voters for each party with 2012 estimates.
It will become (reluctantly) a familiar phrase: “The Enthusiasm Gap.” I would guess multiply 2012 % by 1.3 for Trump, and 0.8 for Hillary. But there are pollsters out there who can do a creative adjustment based on reality if they try. Maybe ask “one a 1-10 scale, how likely are you to vote?” or, “If they charged $ to vote, how much would you pay?” or something...
Hillary’s enthusiasm multiplier won’t go up much from where it is now. She has to open her mouth more eventually, and as Rush points out so brilliantly, every time she does, her polls go down.
Trump’s enthusiasm multiplier, on the other hand, will fluctuate but it is real and positive. The msm and turncoat pubs are doing what they can to kill Trump’s enthusiasm multiplier. That’s all they can do to stop him, and they are pulling out all stops.
It seems strange that both the republican establishment and the demorats would just keep on trashing Trump if they were so convinced that he never had a chance of winning.
I will vote for Trump even if i thought he never had a chance of winning because he says what i believe even if those stuped tit sucking socialists can`t understand what he is saying.
Yep. Trump is playing ‘rope a dope’ until the time is right to pounce.
How can you be sure? The polling models try to figure out what voting patterns will be, based on previous elections. Trump is appealing to a lot of people who aren't always motivated voters. Add to that, there are groups from which his support is massively high, and thus will be under-reported by these models.
My guess is that's why the dems, media and disgusting nevertrumpista backstabber Republicans went all-in with the Khan rigged story. It was an attempt to cut into Trump's support in Veterans and the military.
Add to that, Trump's past two days' rallies have been really, really good. He seems focused on the message, and has Pence and Flynn with him. The "insiders" who gave the media damaging info seem to be gone; I'm suspecting there were one or two high-profile infiltrators.
For all those reasons, I can't understand why you say "Trump is behind". We need polls with targeted foci because of the uniqueness of this election. Saying "he's behind" amounts to pushing the inadequate polls, and pushing the narrative can sometimes make something so.
The only polls to follow:
http://election.princeton.edu/
http://pollyvote.com/en/
Yes, there’s a couple days delay, but they are accurate if poll methodologies are appropriate.
There is some doubt of that, so add a few points one way or the other as you please. Pollyvote is good for that but both make it easy to do.
ALL political scientists hate Trump as far as I can tell. At least those accessible on the web. They REALLY hate him.
Fox News has been a part of the Ministry of Propaganda for a lot longer than just recently.
They have been the mouthpiece of the Cheap Labor Express for many years.
Every attempt to “Comprehensively Screw Americans Out Of Their Country” has been promoted by Fox News and their darlings, Rubio, McCain and Grahamnesty.
http://truthfeed.com/media-lies-exposed-mother-with-crying-baby-at-trump-rally-trump-never-kicked-me-or-my-child-out/15311/
The media is REALLY throwing this election or trying to. We have to keep exposing them at every turn. FR is doing a darned fine job at that.
Nonsense. The corruption is so obvious a child can see it.
I took a statistics course in graduate school years ago, working on my MBA. It was one of the best classes I have ever taken and I remain skeptical of poll results to this day because of what I learned in that class.
A poll is made up of numbers and statistics are just a way to analyze those numbers. And one thing I learned in that class is that one can make those numbers say anything you want, depending on your viewpoint or agenda. Completely different outcomes arrived at from the same exact numbers.
BTW, the title of the textbook for that class was "How To Lie With Statistics."
IOW...its "The Art of the Deal".
Why would anyone let poll results determine whether they vote or not? Where I live, most of the candidates I vote for —if there is someone besides a Democrat to vote for —don’t have a prayer of winning, and I know that going in. Still, I exercise my right to vote. I participate in the process. Every once in a while, usually on the statewide or nationwide level, I will help elect someone. It’s not a lot of effort. And I have made my choice, win or lose.
DON’T BELIEVE THE POLLS . . . EVEN FOX NEWS POLLS
***
I would say “especially Fox News”.
Stressing about polls is the cyclical angst of American politics. We all do it at one point or another. We have a unique candidate who is anything but conventional. Trump is prone to statements and flippant remarks that defy our expectations. Some simply don’t know what to make of him. I can’t think of any comparable figure on the American political scene. He is unique. I also firmly believe that there are many who silently agree with him on a whole host of subjects. I don’t know how many unrecorded points this will win him in November, but I know he will get the vote of many who may not admit it now.
However, I also subscribe to a very unpopular view here on FR that Trump will hurt himself by chasing the media driven butterflies. The media is out to destroy him and the hysteria will only get worse in the coming weeks. Hillary is the establishment corrupt candidate and she does not inspire her own base, much less the public. She has one campaign strategy to win over the undecided swing voters - make the election a referendum on Trump. She has to define him as boorish and dangerous because there are several percentage points of the swing voters who won’t vote for “that guy.” Deny it all you want, but I know some of them.
Trump has a winning platform and message that he needs to keep hammering. They both have their base numbers. This election is no longer about those who have decided. We like his fight because he says what many of us do at the dinner table. It was his strength during the primary and it worked.
However, the primary is over and it’s now the main event. There are always enough undecideds and people who have not paid attention out there. It is now about a few states for guaranteed victory - even the left is admitting it - they are focusing on the swing states. It’s the people we all know from our circle of family, friends, and co-workers who believe the partisan hacks on television and those writing for their newspaper have unbiased gravitas. These are the people who don’t see the traps or recognize the bias. These are the people who instinctively view Trump as a bombastic television personality because that is the media image. A sizable number of them don’t like him because that is how they view him.
Their strategy is keeping their base vote (easy to do) and portraying Trump as dangerous. They are making the election about Trump. If Trump plays to their narrative he will lose. If he deftly avoids getting dragged into the weeds and continues to hammer the issues (he is winning those big time), avoids their definitions, and smartly focuses on her negatives he will win. I firmly believe that.
To some here on FR that makes me a “concern troll” and they seem to think the election will be decided here. They attack those of us who want Trump to calm down and focus on the prize as if that will somehow make Trump win. They deny the obvious - Trump won’t gain any more supporters at this point by chasing their butterflies. He needs to pick and choose his shots carefully from this point forward like a smart boxer does.
That’s the way I see it. This election is about my children’s future and I think Trump would be a huge positive for them and the nation they will inherit. I won’t agree with some things (I am sure), but I think Hillary would be a complete and total disaster. She is an extension of the status quo and represents the ultimate form of political corruption. Trump should make her the face of the policies that have 70% of Americans believing we are heading in the wrong direction. She has a horrible record and people don’t trust her.
I don’t give a damn about anything else other than winning. It’s time to be smart and play to win. I pray that Trump understands this and stays on message. At this point he is after the fickle swing voter that many here seem incapable of understanding.... the uninformed Americans who vote on “feelings” ignoring the ass full of splinters they carry into every election because “they just don’t know and can’t make up their minds.” I know a bunch of them and despite what many here think the whole stupid Khan thing offended them (even if he was an obviously partisan actor with a set script). It was dumb and was easily avoidable. Khan was to the left what Joe the Plumber was to the right - a person and “fight” that a smart candidate would simply avoid.
Forget me and you - this is now crunch time for the swing voters. Polls be damned.
1.Only about half of the people old enough to vote DON'T, and a lot of them are evangelical Christians. 2.Over 4 million evangelical voters stayed home in 2012 because of Romney.
Since Trump is the nominee against Hillary A lot of these nonvoters are getting involved in this election for Trump. It is these people who are NOT showing up in these polls.
Sounds like someone has their head on straight!!!
All these ‘weak kneed, pearl grabbing faint of heart’ people just are not thick skinned enough to figure it out...
Everybody knows that the MSM is bought and paid for by the Clinton/Barky machine, and with that so are the ‘pollsters’...did it ever occur to anyone that Trump has his ‘own’ pollsters and they know where he is??? Just because you don’t know about doesn’t mean it isn’t happening....
http://truthfeed.com/video-results-of-live-bravo-presidential-poll-shocks-host-andy-cohen/14303/
Read about BOTH polls here. Not my find, just reposting.
Trump 65 Hillary 35
from viewers of a gay show on the gay Bravo channel! Not your typical Trump voters
Trump 67 Hillary 19 Undecided & other voters 13
from a poll of 50,000 registered voters in 50 states!
Yes, 50,000, that’s *********FIFTY THOUSAND*********
As has been pointed out you can’t have the same number of polled from each state
You have to allow for state population
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