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Trump Is Collapsing in Wisconsin: And that’s really bad for his delegate math
Slate ^ | March 30, 2016 | Jim Newell

Posted on 03/30/2016 11:52:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The April 5 Republican primary in Wisconsin is looking less like a toss-up between Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz and more like a probable win for Cruz. This would be a fairly grave problem for Trump in his effort to reach 1,237 delegates ahead of the convention. Further, a new Wisconsin poll from a well-respected outfit shows horrific favorability ratings for Trump in the state among all voters, mirroring his recent national downturn. If he can’t reach enough delegates ahead of the convention, and his support shows signs of erosion in the final contests—all while his overall favorability rating dives from pretty terrible to comically toxic—it’s going to be that much harder for him to convince delegates to stick with him in Cleveland.

The just-released Marquette Law School poll for March finds Cruz at 40 percent in the state, with Trump at 30 percent and John Kasich at 21 percent. Trump’s 30 percent is actually stable from the February version of the poll … when there were three more candidates still in the race. Cruz’s support, meanwhile, has shot up 21 points in a month, while Kasich’s has increased 13. The once dearly held theory of the Trump ceiling—that his support would never exceed one-third of the primary electorate and thus would not grow even once the field had consolidated—has been shattered in some states. If this poll holds, though, the theory appears to apply to Wisconsin....

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: Wisconsin; Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; 2nddivisionvet; cruz; globalistcruz; implosion; jimnewell; leftistsource; noteligiblecruz; openboarderscruz; slate; slatereally; tedcruz; trump; unipartyposter; wisconsin
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To: mongrel

This was my original point of focus. I haven’t changed anything, I did not twist anything, my original post had absolutely nothing to do with you, and you are as insane as the following:

“All of this for a misguided infatuation with a reality television, beauty contestant entrepreneur, a prize fighting promoter, a titty bar owner, a bankrupt gambling casino magnate, a grifter of vulnerable students and nutrition minded suckers, a brutal landlord, a deceiver of customers, a bully, a misogynist, a serial liar, a mountebank and a man thoroughly unworthy of the highest office in the world.”


181 posted on 04/01/2016 4:19:11 AM PDT by odawg
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To: nathanbedford

“I might’ve been able to defend myself if odawg had sent me notice of his subsequent comments concerning me after his first.”

I was responding, first, to your post, and then whoever he is jumped in and you would think I slapped his mother.

He obviously doesn’t think you are capable of defending yourself. He became distraught. Still is.


182 posted on 04/01/2016 4:22:57 AM PDT by odawg
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To: odawg; mongrel
It is more than common courtesy, it is decency that requires the utterer of comments about another Freeper to offer him the chance to defend himself. You have done this once to me and, even after I rebuked you about it, you again committed the same breach of etiquette and did it to mongrel.

This is a matter of courtesy, this is a matter of decency and, more, this is necessary if we are to prevent Free Republic from descending into nothing more than a collection of guttersnipes.


183 posted on 04/01/2016 6:12:44 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

“You have done this once to me and, even after I rebuked you...”

“rebuked” me?

As Paul Harvey use to say, I think you are overrunning your headlights. You rebuke me only in your exalted mind only.

I was defending myself to Mongrel. I am not interesting in defending you.

“guttersnipes”

Cite where I said anything to him, about you, that I did not say directly to you.


184 posted on 04/01/2016 6:25:04 AM PDT by odawg
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To: odawg; mongol
You are unrepentant and obdurate and obviously a serial offender. You are a drive-by cheap shot artist. You are a moral coward.

You do no credit to conservatism.


185 posted on 04/01/2016 6:34:58 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: mongrel; mongol; odawg
The following remark was intended to be directed secondarily as an advisory to mongrel but due to a spelling error was apparently misdirected to mongol.

My apologies to you both.

You are unrepentant and obdurate and obviously a serial offender. You are a drive-by cheap shot artist. You are a moral coward.

You do no credit to conservatism.


186 posted on 04/01/2016 6:41:54 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

I live in Louisiana. I am willing to drive quite a distance to meet you so we can find how who is the coward. Are you willing you son of a bitch?


187 posted on 04/01/2016 6:42:50 AM PDT by odawg
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To: nathanbedford
Donald Trump is the most hated of all modern potential presidential candidates. When he goes down in the general election, he will take senators, representatives, conservatism and the country down with him. Hillary will nominate three or four leftist Justices who will finish us off in those areas that the Democrats themselves don't get around to.

This is what I always hated about you Nathan... you're refusal to take a stand on any issue. /s

188 posted on 04/01/2016 6:43:35 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What do you expect from Wisconsin...they talk funny.


189 posted on 04/01/2016 6:46:25 AM PDT by jetson
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To: odawg
Not only are you a moral coward but you are an illiterate. I did not call you a physical coward but a moral coward. If you want to confront me you will have a hard time driving but you could swim from Louisiana. I am in Germany so I recommend you swim across the Atlantic into the entrance to the Rhine, proceed down the main canal than swim south from the Danube along the in Inn River finally wading ashore on the Chiemsee were I will be happy to meet you on your terms. My recommendation is you let me tutor you in English but we will do it your way as you please.


190 posted on 04/01/2016 6:48:43 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: sargon

Even Megan Kelly recognizes that Donald Trump is nothing more than a carnival barker selling snake oil to the masses!

He’s a worthless POS not worthy of the consideration of any thinking person regardless of party!


191 posted on 04/01/2016 6:51:43 AM PDT by Bigun ("The most fearsome words in the English language are I'm from the government and I'm here to help!")
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To: nathanbedford

You forgot to add that he kicks puppies!/s


192 posted on 04/01/2016 6:52:08 AM PDT by mdmathis6
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This poll again? Cruzlims have been beating off to it for days now despite it’s tiny sample size and outlier status.. Hardly news.


193 posted on 04/01/2016 6:58:12 AM PDT by JerseyDvl (Hillary's a criminal.)
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To: nathanbedford

“Not only are you a moral coward but you are an illiterate. I did not call you a physical coward but a moral coward.”

Genius, did I mention anything at all about physical cowardice? Now you are making me laugh. But can you imagine a moral coward who is not also a physical coward?

I am a Southerner. Down here you call someone a coward and you can expect blood on the floor.


194 posted on 04/01/2016 7:00:32 AM PDT by odawg
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To: nathanbedford
Killing the Messenger

I should know.

LOL. You're no messenger.

A messenger doesn't have an agenda. A messenger simply carries a message. A messenger doesn't embellish and distort.

Thank you for confirming for every one who reads this precisely how the Trump swarm operates.

Thank you for disingenuously demonstrating how the Ted Cruz/GOPe smear machine operates.

You guys long ago exceeded any excesses that Donald Trump has been accused of, or is even capable of.

Nothing but 24/7/365 hatred, without conscience or intrinsic merit.

You seek to cast the mote from peoples' eyes while ignoring the beam in your own.

I've never seen a more arrogant, condescending, unprincipled group of slanted propagandists in my life than the coalition of Media/Left/GOPe/Cruz supporters who have banded together in the common cause of destroying an individual who loves his country and simply wants to help make it great again.

Like I said, you're no messenger, you're simply a deceiver with no decency.

Every sentence you type veritably drips with hysterical malevolence. Your malice is couched in lofty words, but underneath the phony veneer of objectivity is nothing but lies and spin.

Messenger? HAH!

195 posted on 04/01/2016 7:01:06 AM PDT by sargon ("No king but Christ!")
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To: SomeCallMeTim; Longbow1969
Perhaps this reply will also appeal to you.


196 posted on 04/01/2016 7:02:36 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: sargon
Every sentence you type veritably drips with hysterical malevolence... nothing but lies and spin.

I have written many sentences, perhaps you can find some examples of the deplorable " lies and spin."?

Please note you wrote in the conjunctive not in the disjunctive, "lies and spin," so let's see you produce some examples of lies which demonstrate that I am a "deceiver" without "decency". Let's hear those lies.

There is a difference between a lie and an opinion. An opinion is part of the give-and-take of political debate but a lie is a knowing misrepresentation of a material fact. Let's see you produce some knowing misrepresentations of material facts because I will not let you get away with posting an opinion and calling it a lie.

Your turn.


197 posted on 04/01/2016 7:17:47 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

Always looked forward to your posts ... until recently when your TDS has become unbearable.

I think you have lived abroad too long, and no longer recognize how corrupt our political system has become, and the fact that only a real outsider has any chance at changing things.

You can’t reform a corrupt system by electing someone who is a member of that system. Electing another Harvard lawyer won’t change a damn thing. Especially one who is married to a NAU proponent and has the establishment backing him.

Just MNSHO.


198 posted on 04/01/2016 7:25:45 AM PDT by Comment Not Approved (When bureaucrats outlaw hunting, outlaws will hunt bureaucrats.)
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To: Comment Not Approved
The idea that a billionaire, son of a millionaire, briber of politicians, a developer who made his fortune in large part by developing in conjunction with government, is an outsider is preposterous.

Is there anyone in the United States up to and including the president of the United States before Trump declared his candidacy who would not pick up the telephone if Donald Trump called? Donald Trump has spent his entire life social climbing and ingratiating himself with the powerful. That is one of the ways he acquired his fortune.

Donald Trump is the consummate insider.


199 posted on 04/01/2016 7:33:51 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford; Longbow1969; michelala
If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot some GOPe stooge like Ryan will win the nomination on the 3rd or 4th ballot. Romney and the other sleazebag GOP superfriends will throw Cruz away like yesterday’s garbage.

Indeed, Nathan, I did like the response you linked. Your opinions are clear, and persuasive. I don't agree on all, but... I do on many.

I don't have as negative an opinion of Trump as you do. I think he's a man who truly does love his country and has been trying to do good things for it. He's failed in many areas, but succeeded in others. Nevertheless, he has never shirked from the spotlight... (lol, now THERE's an understatement!)

I think it's pretty clear that DJT has been dreaming about being President for most of his adult life. Like 17+ others, he saw an opportunity in this cycle, and jumped on it. Before anyone else, Trump very clearly saw THE ISSUE that could carry him all the way: Illegal Immigration. He made this issue the centerpiece of his announcement, and returns to it every time he gets into trouble. Nine months later, he’s STILL the Republican front runner, and the ONLY candidate with a chance to win an outright majority of the votes. Like it or not, he IS the “winner”…. Almost. Our bizarre system for nomination might still save the day for the establishment.

Personally, I have always preferred Cruz and still do. But, I copied the quote from Michelala above for a reason: I think it’s correct. As a Cruz supporter, I must admit; he has NO CHANCE to win the nomination outright, with votes from the people. Perhaps Cruz has the political organizational skills to pull off a win in an open convention, but… I doubt it. I see it as FAR MORE likely that, we get a GOPe candidate like Ryan. In fact, I’d probably take an even money bet, right now, that Paul Ryan will be the R Party nominee. He won’t win the general (Since the Trump AND Cruz supporters will revolt). But, he’ll be ‘nice enough’ in the losing, that Republicans will be able to hold the House, and… hopefully, the Senate. This is the logic of the GOPe.

Honestly? I don’t know what I think. I WANT to believe that Trump is a smart man with pure motives, one who could be a strong leader in a fight against Socialism. He does have a relationship with the American people that has been developed over 30 years, and won’t be easily destroyed by the media. He does FIGHT, in a way no other R leader will. But, he also continues to do truly stupid, childish things like talking about his ‘junk’, attacking Heidi Cruz, or not simply apologizing to Michelle “Baby Face” Fields. I am concerned by the possibility that Trump would “lose it all’. That would be a disaster for this country, as you have correctly identified.

I waffle because, I don’t see a clear path forward. I don’t see a champion for conservatism worthy of the cause. I don’t see a country receptive to our message. I fear, we are like the drug addict who must hit rock bottom before seeing the hope of Jesus. Maybe, as a country, we deserve Bernie Sanders? Or maybe, we need to prop up our best fighter and try to carry him to the finish line. Of one thing I’m sure, Trump WANTS to win, and will FIGHT for it. We’ll see how the process plays out. I HATE being pessimistic, but I don’t see any way this ends well for conservatism, or America.

If not Trump, who?

200 posted on 04/01/2016 8:19:26 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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