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Presidential Horse Race 2016: Why a reputable pollster forecasts a Cruz win in Iowa
Richard A. Viguerie's Conservative HQ ^ | January 19, 2016 | Jeffrey A. Rendall

Posted on 01/19/2016 6:45:46 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Glancing at the latest Real Clear Politics polling average for Iowa, you see Donald Trump has retaken the lead in The Hawkeye State, 27.8 percent to Ted Cruz's 26.7 percent.

Those results are certain to set off another wave of brash rhetoric and bold predictions from The Donald himself, but before he or his supporters get too excited, the bigger picture needs to be taken into account.

Ted Cruz supportersFor example, pollster Nate Silver's very reputable FiveThirtyEight group now gives Cruz a fairly sizeable chance to beat Trump in a little less than two weeks.

Kristen East of Politico reports, "Ted Cruz ha[s] the greatest chance of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, a new polling-based forecast from FiveThirtyEight shows...

(Excerpt) Read more at conservativehq.com ...


TOPICS: Iowa; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: cruz; iowa; tedcruz; trump
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To: IAMNO1

Here’s a pattern. One I’m frankly disgusted with. This is just despicable, thanks for helping me out. Good night: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3385883/posts?page=75#75.


81 posted on 01/19/2016 8:36:04 PM PST by Lakeshark
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To: Lakeshark

Not opening it unless you tell me what it is. I don’t do click-bait.


82 posted on 01/19/2016 8:38:27 PM PST by IAMNO1 (Enough with the divisions. Lets get somebody in there who'll fix this mess.)
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To: Fiji Hill

I agree, pandering is too strong, I was lazy. My point is that Cruz is type-casting himself as a religious zealot, at least in the eyes of the people that he will need to vote for him to put him over (obviously not true, but it’s the impression people are getting). For better or worse, Trump doesn’t give off that impression.


83 posted on 01/19/2016 8:51:15 PM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yes Trump IS going to win. Perhaps I’ll do that?

Just think about this.... Conservatives are divided, and that is Cruz’s main base. If his own base is divided, then he can’t win.

Who has greater appeal to the masses Cruz or Trump. Like I said all you have to do is look at the rallies. Trump hasthousands while Cruz is lucky if he has between 100 to 200 supporters.

At the rallies you are looking at less than 1% of all a candidates supporters. Who has the most fans when you add all the rallies up? It’s not even remotely close.


84 posted on 01/19/2016 9:11:13 PM PST by Enlightened1
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here’s a video of Cruz you will like ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfKwc5lpZZ0


85 posted on 01/19/2016 9:17:20 PM PST by Neu Pragmatist (Trump is the only one who can win the general election . With Cruz we lose)
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To: BigEdLB; flaglady47; Jane Long; DoughtyOne; Maine Mariner; mickie; pax_et_bonum; HarleyLady27; ...
Oh, lordy, lordy....please forgive me...but why do I feel just as excited in seeing all these countless ENEMEDIA bloviators, arrogant plicks and consumate liars have public meltdowns on TV on the evening of Nov. 8, 2016 as I am in seeing Mr. Trump waving his arms at his victory party in his new Trump Hotel in Washington, DC?

Leni

86 posted on 01/19/2016 9:37:23 PM PST by MinuteGal ("We will take things away from you on behalf of the common good"...Karl Marx...oops, Hillary Clinton)
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To: MinuteGal

I really hope to be well and kicking and alive on November 8th. If Trump wins, it will be YUGE and Amazing!


87 posted on 01/19/2016 9:41:38 PM PST by entropy12 (Rafael Cruz 100% eligible as natural born Canada citizen!! SCOTUS might clear his USA NBC status.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Was that pollster prediction before Sarah Palin endorsement and governor Branstad’s exhorting Iowans to defeat Rafael Cruz, or after?


88 posted on 01/19/2016 9:44:14 PM PST by entropy12 (Rafael Cruz 100% eligible as natural born Canada citizen!! SCOTUS might clear his USA NBC status.)
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To: libbylu

A much bigger deal than the Palin endorsement is Branstad’s open attack on Cruz today. Branstad is the longest serving governor in the history of United States, so I have to assume he is quite popular governor there.


89 posted on 01/19/2016 9:47:51 PM PST by entropy12 (Rafael Cruz 100% eligible as natural born Canada citizen!! SCOTUS might clear his USA NBC status.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
What exactly have career politicians accomplished?

Obamacare scrapped?
Illegals deported?
Wall built?
Anchor babies outlawed?
National debt reduced?
Abortion restricted?
China trade deficit reduced?
Food stamp growth curbed?
Welfare growth reduced?
Fraud in Medicare & Social Security under control?

Nope!

Instead they all push the cheap labor express as ordered by their ultra-rich donors. Just one ultra-rich donor Robert Mercer has donated $31 Million to Cruz PACs.

Path to Legal Status for Illegals

Cheap Foreign Workers on H1-B visa

Pushing TPP

Cruz pushing import of Syrian Refugees:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7-nLXGoSjpg

90 posted on 01/19/2016 9:58:24 PM PST by entropy12 (Rafael Cruz 100% eligible as natural born Canada citizen!! SCOTUS might clear his USA NBC status.)
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To: entropy12; Jane Long; DoughtyOne; HarleyLady27; flaglady47; RitaOK; MS.BEHAVIN; danamco; ...
You're absolutely correct. The big story today was Branstad's veiled endorsement of Trump.

Not only because he's a very popular governor, but because governors in each state have their own extended political apparatuses in every county...in essence, controlling an army of experienced workers in every local area who know how to get the vote out.

Branstad's move today was priceless in helping to get the voters out of their digs and into the caucus halls.

Leni

91 posted on 01/19/2016 10:05:02 PM PST by MinuteGal ("We will take things away from you on behalf of the common good"...Karl Marx...oops, Hillary Clinton)
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To: MinuteGal

That would seem pivotal to me also.


92 posted on 01/19/2016 10:38:20 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Free Republic Caucus: vote daily / watch for the thread / Starts 01/20 midnight to midnight EDST)
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To: altura
Don’t be so sure of yourself.

Assuredly

93 posted on 01/19/2016 10:47:16 PM PST by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: BigEdLB; 2ndDivisionVet; MinuteGal; LucyT

I’ve said it often, FAUX 6pm is a Psychic place with rotating establishment paid panels, spearheaded by Psychiatric Charles Saur-Krauthammer, to manipulating “We the People” and “For the People” into their weird thinking. They are totally out of touch with us!!!

Regarding the other freak stooges mentioned, is it not up to them just to report and WE decide instead spewing out their own agendas???


94 posted on 01/20/2016 5:17:18 AM PST by danamco
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To: Karl Spooner

IF Trump wins, we will have to choose between two lying Narcissistic progressives, with Trump having the edge on several issues. But with Trump taking Mitch’s side over Ted’s, I’ll know that it’s OVER!!
You guys had better save your vodka, b/c you’re going to need it every night during the progressive collapse under Trump.


95 posted on 01/20/2016 6:33:33 AM PST by alstewartfan (I woke with the frost and noticed she'd lost the veil that covered her eyes. Al Stewart)
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To: BobL

So, you’ll go with a progressive who donated to ROTTEN, PELOSI, SHUMER and REID, b/c the best candidate can’t win, accoring to conventional “wisdom”!
For the record, the nomination was Rick’s, had he not made serious verbal gaffes after he gained traction.


96 posted on 01/20/2016 6:37:16 AM PST by alstewartfan (I woke with the frost and noticed she'd lost the veil that covered her eyes. Al Stewart)
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To: alstewartfan

So let’s see: Rush supports Trump, Jim Robinson supports Trump, and Palin ENDORSED Trump.

But instead I’m supposed to believe you, someone that I don’t know at all, that, for all I know, works for Rubio and Jeb?


97 posted on 01/20/2016 3:02:02 PM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: IAMNO1

It’s a link to an FR post where I lose it on a Cruz supporter. Very safe.


98 posted on 01/21/2016 6:21:55 AM PST by Lakeshark
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