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Posted on 09/19/2015 5:40:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There are sixteen major candidates for the Republican nomination for president. All but three of them have been United States senators or state governors at some point in their careers. The other three, according to a Morning Consult poll of people who watched the 11 leading contenders debate this past Wednesday, are leading the race.
A couple of big caveats: this is Morning Consult's first campaign season and it isn't yet a proven pollster, and the people who watched the Republican debates may not represent the party's primary electorate as a whole. But when you consider that this is a poll of Republicans (and independents who plan to vote in Republican primaries) who are engaged enough to watch an early debate — who one would think are the most engaged voters out there — it gets even more worrisome for the establishment.
Here are four terrible signs for the GOP establishment in the poll, and one good one:
1) Political n00bs get an outright majority of debate-watchers' support
36 percent of poll respondents support Donald Trump; 12 percent support Ben Carson; and 10 percent support Carly Fiorina. All together, that's 58 percent of Republican debate-watchers who support one of the three candidates in the race with no experience in elected office whatsoever. To put it another way, none of the twelve candidates in the field with political experience managed to crack 10 percent of the vote.
2) Fiorina's rising — but she's not taking Trump's support
Most observers, including the poll's respondents, agreed Fiorina won the debate. Now, many pundits are portraying her as the new candidate with momentum — implying that she's seizing it from Trump.
But Trump not only failed to lose support after a debate where he was largely irrelevant to the proceedings, he actually gained 5 percentage points since the last Morning Connect poll was conducted a week ago. If neither Fiorina's rise nor his own debate performance has hurt Trump, it's getting hard to imagine what can.
3) Jeb Bush's numbers are dismal — and Scott Walker's are even worse
6 percent of poll respondents said they would vote for Jeb Bush. That ties him with Chris Christie for sixth place (behind Trump, Carson and Fiorina, as well as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). Just like Trump is somehow still gaining support, Bush is somehow still losing it.
It is definitely bad news for the Republican establishment that their preferred candidate is getting 6 percent in the polls. But the man who was supposed to be his "conservative challenger" is doing even worse. Scott Walker, who when the race started was the closest thing to the candidate of the conservative movement, is polling at 1 percent. He is tied with former New York Governor George Pataki.
4) The highest-polling elected official is Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz made his name, nationally, fighting the leadership of his own party in the Senate in the floor fight that resulted in the 2011 government shutdown. Ted Cruz is notoriously disliked by his Republican Senate colleagues. Ted Cruz's strategy over the last few months has been to buddy up with Donald Trump — even appearing at a rally in DC against the Iran nuclear deal together — in the hopes that when (or if) Trump's candidacy fades, Cruz will swoop in and take his support. Ted Cruz is, in other words, running against the fact that he is an elected official. Ted Cruz is polling better than all the other elected officials.
5) But what if all of this is just very good news for Marco Rubio?
If you are an establishment Republican donor, all of this looks pretty dismal to you. But there is hope! After yet another quietly competent debate performance, Marco Rubio — who was once languishing with Christie and Rand Paul — is rising in the polls and, according to Morning Connect, right behind Cruz.
Rubio is incredibly amenable to conservative establishment preferences. In fact, the biggest problem with his candidacy so far was that some of the people who might support Rubio were instead backing Jeb Bush. In a happy coincidence, just as Bush's campaign is looking hopeless — and just as it's becoming clear that the anti-establishment candidates aren't going to take each other out on their own — Rubio's looking a little better. In other words, Marco Rubio has a pretty strong case that if the GOP donor base wants to take down Donald Trump, he, and not Bush, is the candidate they should bet on.
I think the push Carly movement is on. She is scheduled for Fox News Sunday along with Lindsey Graham.
I didn’t think she won the debate. She did succeed in riling Trump, but she didn’t succeed in making me like her or want to support her.
A knife in the back.
Rubio is an uncloseted racial supremacist.
Not going to be a big seller as the race goes on.
Rubio is far from popular in the state full of voters he lied to.
America agrees with me. We aren’t voting for a Mexican for president.
Hey, I didn’t say I approved - I said I wondered if Trump might consider him. On second thought - Trump would need to shore up the conservative, Christian base of the party and Cruz can do that. It’s all speculation at this point anyway.
That chart makes sense, from the debate I was watching anyway. Rubio and Fiorina took support mostly from Carson, but some from Cruz. In an objective fair campaign season, Trump would be considered an overwhelming favorite.
A headache?
Just pointing out why he likely would not pick MR.
The argument that Cruz is a necessary voice in the US Senate, for his legal expertise, unraveling the mess Obama has left behind. I also like the contrasts between Trump and Rubio...they compliment each other.
I know that.
Carson looks like he needs an Epinephrine injection.
The COMMUNIST CONTROLLED PRESS HAD THIS LOSER AS THE SECOND COMING LAST WEEK.
Now its this incompetent bitch on wheels Fiorina who is supposed to be omnipotent.
Hell, there are 16 candidates, so look for a new one for the next 4 months that is better that Trump/Cruz.
TRUMP/CRUZ
Either the DISGUSTING GOP OLIGRACH BLUE BLOOD COUNRTY CLUBBERS get with the program or they will be destroyed.
Yep. If Jeb was polling on that line, the party would be working on coronation plans.
It’s so fun to be sharing the same candidate with you. You find the most fun reads to post for us. Carson is headed for a nap sandwich, I’m afraid, which should help Cruz if there is any justice.
I really enjoyed this one.
In 2007 the left made a decision early on that they were sticking with Obama no matter how incendiary the charge... that is why the media barely blinked when Larry Sinclair told his tale of the limo ride and the left didn’t even yawn at Jeramiah Wright’s radicalism not to mention the relationship between Obama and the terrorist Ayers. Therefore it is only fitting for the Right to return the favor.... No matter how incendiary the charge against any Republican running for President, I have four words for the media and the left - Who gives a F##@K.
A better debater than the North American champion in both categories who has a debate series at Princeton named after him?
Trump is a walking repudiation of the GOP-e and their Democrat allies. >>
Voters get nothing— not on illegals, not on the economy, not on the Constitutional circumvention, not on legislation, not on Iran, nothing, until Trump blows up the GOP.
If he can’t survive the GOP primary trap and the united onslaught, who can, among our illustrious field? But, for Jeb of course, whose machine is serving all the corruption and make nice with the Marxists.
“I’ve said I think it will be Trump/Rubio ticket...time will tell.”
Between Rubio and Cruz, Rubio is the more natural public speaker. Cruz may be a great competitive debater, but he is overly formal and stilted, to the point of being somewhat off-putting in my opinion.
I think Trump/Rubio (or Trump/Cruz) helps offset any negatives with Hispanics, for like it or not they are a fast growing segment of voting potential.
All those that are presently in the practice of being a politician, gather the American citizens’ disdain.
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