Math for Trump to win in General Election

September 03, 2015 | Self

[entropy12]

2014 Population breakdown by Ethnicity:

White 62%

Hispanic 17%

Black 12%

For trump to win in General Election, he needs: 68% of white voters, 36% of Hispanic voters, 15% of Black voters

Is it doable? Will depend on who is more energized in November 2016, Republicans or Democrats.

Comments?

[entropy12]

[central_va]

Breaking down by race is a Democrat thing. He needs a majority of Americans to vote for him to win.

[Hostage]

I think he gets much more of Blacks and Hispanics/Latinos. The percentage of the White vote looks about right but should also increase as he gathers momentum.

[entropy12]

There is another 9% of population classified as “Other”.
My guess is they would slightly favor democrat. However I am hearing lot of usual democrat voters are going to vote for Trump.

[nascarnation]

The problem is the non-Americans vote for Dems 99% plus.

[Cowboy Bob]

How much of that 17% Hispanic are legal? What is the ethnicity of the likely voter? It is different from the overall total.

Will the blacks and Hispanics be energized to go out and vote for "Ma" Clinton or Crazy Bernie?

[entropy12]

I have never heard from any democrats I know in previous elections, that they would consider voting Republican. This time I am hearing many going for Trump.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

What about Asians who supposedly only make up a small % of the population, but probably make up a larger chunk than we are being led to believe?

[Jim Robinson]

Amen. Liberty-loving Americans will vote for Trump rather than socialists Hillary, Biden, Sanders, et al. We’ve had quite enough of Obama’s racist socialism, thank you very much.

[entropy12]

Yes, I have serious doubts Hillary will energize blacks like Obama did.

[ricmc2175]

He only needs 81% of the White vote (whatever that means) and he can lose 100% of the other classes (skin colors, language groups, ad nauseum)and win the Presidency.

[11th_VA]

I was at the grocery store late last weekend. Some college kids in front of me were buying beer (one Indian guy, whites, other races). Went we went out to our cars and they were parked next to me; they saw my 'Trump' bumper sticker and the Indian guy said, "Trump - yeah!" (thumbs up)

I didn't expect that reaction ...

[entropy12]

Asians are among the 9% missing from those 3 ethnics listed. The best chance of breaking them loose from democrats? lack of good jobs and Obamacare.

[fhayek]

15% of blacks seems out of reach.

[Hostage]

Me too.

[be-baw]

You talk as if the overall vote will determine the outcome. It won’t. It will be won by he who wins the most electoral votes. Demographics state-by-state will vary.

[entropy12]

Interesting anecdote. I can hardly believe my sister, who has been a Hillary fan and voted Obama both times, likes Trump! I think living in CA, she is fed up with illegals and likes that Trump will protect her Medicare & Social Security.

[BeadCounter]

A lot of the Mexcans are in California, I think Trump can get a lot of the blacks, what if Carson was in the veep position? I can’t believe Ben is so popular.

[BereanBrain]

wrong breakdown.

Not everyone votes.

On top of that, the Dem or Rep turnout swings back and forth due to larger factors.

Your math is based on assumptions we know are not true, and in this election, won’t be true to a very large extent. Why?

I predict low Dem turnout, and high Rep and Ind turnout.
I also predict a higher portion turnout for older and conservative voters, who have been shanghaied for the last 2-3 election cycles.

End result, who wins the Rep nomination wins the race.

[Phlyer]

Breaking down by race is a Democrat thing. He needs a majority of Americans to vote for him to win.

Exactly. Any argument that starts from the premise you are important only (or at least, primarily) because you are part of a group, and not because of who you are individually supports the socialists.

To win back the country, we need to show people how conservative, free-market approaches benefit them regardless of their ethnic group. This is difficult since the socialists have been buying people for years and there are a lot of wealth transfers from the productive to Democrat voters.

It is made even *more* difficult when people who are nominally conservative buy into group-identity as the most important structure for analysis.