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Math for Trump to win in General Election
September 03, 2015
| Self
Posted on 09/03/2015 1:33:49 PM PDT by entropy12
2014 Population breakdown by Ethnicity:
White 62%
Hispanic 17%
Black 12%
For trump to win in General Election, he needs: 68% of white voters, 36% of Hispanic voters, 15% of Black voters
Is it doable? Will depend on who is more energized in November 2016, Republicans or Democrats.
Comments?
TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Issues
KEYWORDS: 2016election; election2016; newyork; trump
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1
posted on
09/03/2015 1:33:49 PM PDT
by
entropy12
To: entropy12
Breaking down by race is a Democrat thing. He needs a majority of Americans to vote for him to win.
2
posted on
09/03/2015 1:35:05 PM PDT
by
central_va
(I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
To: entropy12
I think he gets much more of Blacks and Hispanics/Latinos. The percentage of the White vote looks about right but should also increase as he gathers momentum.
3
posted on
09/03/2015 1:36:48 PM PDT
by
Hostage
(ARTICLE V)
To: entropy12
There is another 9% of population classified as “Other”.
My guess is they would slightly favor democrat. However I am hearing lot of usual democrat voters are going to vote for Trump.
4
posted on
09/03/2015 1:36:49 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(Trump is incorruptible. He is the only candidate without rich donors.)
To: central_va
The problem is the non-Americans vote for Dems 99% plus.
5
posted on
09/03/2015 1:38:21 PM PDT
by
nascarnation
(Impeach, convict, deport)
To: entropy12
How much of that 17% Hispanic are legal? What is the ethnicity of the likely voter? It is different from the overall total.
Will the blacks and Hispanics be energized to go out and vote for "Ma" Clinton or Crazy Bernie?
6
posted on
09/03/2015 1:38:31 PM PDT
by
Cowboy Bob
(With Trump & Cruz, America can't lose!)
To: Hostage
I have never heard from any democrats I know in previous elections, that they would consider voting Republican. This time I am hearing many going for Trump.
7
posted on
09/03/2015 1:39:05 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(Trump is incorruptible. He is the only candidate without rich donors.)
To: entropy12
What about Asians who supposedly only make up a small % of the population, but probably make up a larger chunk than we are being led to believe?
To: central_va
Amen. Liberty-loving Americans will vote for Trump rather than socialists Hillary, Biden, Sanders, et al. We’ve had quite enough of Obama’s racist socialism, thank you very much.
9
posted on
09/03/2015 1:40:03 PM PDT
by
Jim Robinson
(Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!)
To: Cowboy Bob
Yes, I have serious doubts Hillary will energize blacks like Obama did.
10
posted on
09/03/2015 1:40:39 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(Trump is incorruptible. He is the only candidate without rich donors.)
To: central_va
He only needs 81% of the White vote (whatever that means) and he can lose 100% of the other classes (skin colors, language groups, ad nauseum)and win the Presidency.
To: entropy12
I was at the grocery store late last weekend. Some college kids in front of me were buying beer (one Indian guy, whites, other races). Went we went out to our cars and they were parked next to me; they saw my 'Trump' bumper sticker and the Indian guy said, "Trump - yeah!" (thumbs up)
I didn't expect that reaction ...
12
posted on
09/03/2015 1:42:07 PM PDT
by
11th_VA
("We're not gonna take it ANYMORRRRRE !!!")
To: who_would_fardels_bear
Asians are among the 9% missing from those 3 ethnics listed. The best chance of breaking them loose from democrats? lack of good jobs and Obamacare.
13
posted on
09/03/2015 1:42:29 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(Trump is incorruptible. He is the only candidate without rich donors.)
To: entropy12
15% of blacks seems out of reach.
14
posted on
09/03/2015 1:43:25 PM PDT
by
fhayek
To: entropy12
15
posted on
09/03/2015 1:43:46 PM PDT
by
Hostage
(ARTICLE V)
To: entropy12
You talk as if the overall vote will determine the outcome. It won’t. It will be won by he who wins the most electoral votes. Demographics state-by-state will vary.
16
posted on
09/03/2015 1:44:31 PM PDT
by
be-baw
(still seeking)
To: 11th_VA
Interesting anecdote. I can hardly believe my sister, who has been a Hillary fan and voted Obama both times, likes Trump! I think living in CA, she is fed up with illegals and likes that Trump will protect her Medicare & Social Security.
17
posted on
09/03/2015 1:46:31 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(Trump is incorruptible. He is the only candidate without rich donors.)
To: entropy12
A lot of the Mexcans are in California, I think Trump can get a lot of the blacks, what if Carson was in the veep position? I can’t believe Ben is so popular.
To: central_va
wrong breakdown.
Not everyone votes.
On top of that, the Dem or Rep turnout swings back and forth due to larger factors.
Your math is based on assumptions we know are not true, and in this election, won’t be true to a very large extent. Why?
I predict low Dem turnout, and high Rep and Ind turnout.
I also predict a higher portion turnout for older and conservative voters, who have been shanghaied for the last 2-3 election cycles.
End result, who wins the Rep nomination wins the race.
To: central_va; entropy12
Breaking down by race is a Democrat thing. He needs a majority of Americans to vote for him to win.
Exactly. Any argument that starts from the premise you are important only (or at least, primarily) because you are part of a group, and not because of who you are individually supports the socialists.
To win back the country, we need to show people how conservative, free-market approaches benefit them regardless of their ethnic group. This is difficult since the socialists have been buying people for years and there are a lot of wealth transfers from the productive to Democrat voters.
It is made even *more* difficult when people who are nominally conservative buy into group-identity as the most important structure for analysis.
20
posted on
09/03/2015 1:47:38 PM PDT
by
Phlyer
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