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Why It’s So Hard to Predict What Happens With Trump’s Supporters When He Drops Out
Slate ^ | July 31, 2015 | Josh Voorhees, senior writer, Iowa City

Posted on 08/03/2015 2:06:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Donald Trump may seem invincible right now, but his current run can’t last. Even if the belligerent billionaire and current GOP front-runner doesn’t implode on the debate stage next week or on the campaign trail next month, the fundamentals of American politics will still catch up to him: At some point the GOP field will narrow and an establishment favorite will consolidate enough support to knock Trump from his perch. Eventually, that means he will exit a nominating battle he cannot win.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Washington parlor game of predicting how Trump’s campaign will end is now turning into one about what will happen with his supporters when it does.

There is no shortage of possibilities. Writing in the National Journal on Friday, for example, political analyst Charlie Cook pegs Chris Christie and Ted Cruz’s camps as likely homes for Trump’s backers once their first choice is out of the race. In the Washington Post, meanwhile, James Holmann calls it a “jump ball” before ultimately suggesting Trump’s loss could be Mike Huckabee’s gain. While the predictions vary, the rationale behind them is usually the same: Whoever wins the Trump sweepstakes will be someone who shares his anti-establishment anger....

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Parties; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bush; chrischristie; dds; election2016; joshvoorhees; newyork; slate; tds; tedcruz; trump
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To: Dr. Bogus Pachysandra
To give whoever wrote this a little credit, he's not saying Huckabee will get the votes. He's just reporting that somebody else in the media says that.

He does say that polls show a lot of overlap between Bush and Trump supporters. Those are the two best known candidates so it's not really surprising. If you've only heard of two or three candidates, your second choice if your guy drops out isn't going to be somebody you never heard of.

Trump voters don't fit into any narrow group. They won't all go to the same second choice if Trump leaves the race. They'll find as much to dislike as like in Jeb or Huck or Ted or Chris. Given his high poll numbers, Trump will still be around when a lot of the other candidates have packed up and gone home.

61 posted on 08/03/2015 3:12:53 PM PDT by x
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To: JustaCowgirl
Agreed. However, the flow is that Slate writes it, Salon refers to it, then MSNBC panel discusses it, then NBC Today runs the clip. And it's all coordinated in advance on JournoList.

-PJ

62 posted on 08/03/2015 3:13:47 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: Norm Lenhart
Conservatives search for Trump’s actual conservativism

myth miTH/
noun
a widely held but false belief or idea.

63 posted on 08/03/2015 3:16:04 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: lodi90

I agree. Until Trump came in Walker was everybody’s second choice.


64 posted on 08/03/2015 3:16:55 PM PDT by Hugin ("Do yourself a favor--first thing, get a firearm!",)
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To: South40

Silly man. You still believe words mean things to ‘conservatives’.

Considering the word ‘conservative’ has lost all meaning with lesser evil idiocy, “Myth’ could well mean set in stone fact”. Example.

“Trump is Severely Conservative”

Wanna bet someone on this thread would loudly agree?


65 posted on 08/03/2015 3:18:42 PM PDT by Norm Lenhart
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To: Political Junkie Too

I see. Enemies of the people, every one.


66 posted on 08/03/2015 3:19:51 PM PDT by JustaCowgirl (the left has redefined the word 'racism' to mean any disagreement with any liberal about any topic)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

More wishful thinking from terrified liberals. Trump has burned all his bridges. It’s the Oval Office or bust. He is a very dangerous man, and I love it. The Uniparty needs to be smashed to bits, and he is the only one to do it. Plus I want to see him appoint Rafael Theodore Cruz as the new Chief Justice.


67 posted on 08/03/2015 3:21:29 PM PDT by montag813 (Bring Back Tar and Feathers)
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To: South40

Be honest, when Trump said that, no one knew how pro-amnesty Bush has become now.


68 posted on 08/03/2015 3:22:11 PM PDT by entropy12 (Make America Great Again!!! Go Trump/Cruz 2016....others are all in pocket of their rich donors.)
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To: Norm Lenhart
Some wold some wouldn't. I don't know which is worse; those who have been fooled into believing this lifelong liberal who was a registered democRAT as recently as 2009 is really a conservative, or those who know and admit he is not but are willing to vote for him anyway simply because they have been swayed by his words.

We should never gauge a candidate's conservative credentials based on what he or she may say while campaigning. We must always look at his or her history. And Trump has a well-documented and well-known history of being a liberal. So did Mitt Romney and he was rightly rejected.

69 posted on 08/03/2015 3:26:28 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: South40

Yup. But doing that means no unicorn farming. And people today are too gutless to stand on principle. They want what liberals want. Deniability/excuses/evil.

If they didn’t, they’d back and elect conservatives.


70 posted on 08/03/2015 3:31:57 PM PDT by Norm Lenhart
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To: entropy12

Be honest, do you really believe Jeb Bush’s only liberal leanings are on immigration? The man’s a liberal on many issues. I personally believe that’s why Trump supported him. You’re free to believe what you will.


71 posted on 08/03/2015 3:39:04 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Cruz—He’s the only one, as far as I can tell, that hasn’t insulted Trump’s supporters.


72 posted on 08/03/2015 3:40:26 PM PDT by Arm_Bears (Biology is biology. Everything else is imagination.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

That’s great!


73 posted on 08/03/2015 3:45:27 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I will tell you exactly what will happen and that is a lot of people will just stay home. If they are like me they are tired of the lies and promises not kept.

No more professional politicians.

So I guess we will just see what shakes out.


74 posted on 08/03/2015 3:49:17 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

"Who the #$!! is President Trump?"


75 posted on 08/03/2015 4:01:18 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'll vote for Jeb when Terri Schiavo endorses him.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They are only hoping that Trump is going to drop out.


76 posted on 08/03/2015 4:02:30 PM PDT by Eva
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To: South40

If Bush cut taxes and cut size of government increased jobs in Florida, he can’t be a tax and spend liberal progressive. But I just can’t “love” the illegals as he wants us to.


77 posted on 08/03/2015 4:02:59 PM PDT by entropy12 (Make America Great Again!!! Go Trump/Cruz 2016....others are all in pocket of their rich donors.)
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To: entropy12
If Bush cut taxes and cut size of government increased jobs in Florida,

You need to stop listening to the candidate and look at the facts.

Bush, like his brother, is a big spender. The Florida budget increased 45% under his watch.

Do you call that cutting the size of government?

78 posted on 08/03/2015 4:18:25 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016)
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To: entropy12

Agreed but for me it was also the terry shivo issue and how he could have stood up for her. Speaks volumes to his lack of character.


79 posted on 08/03/2015 4:21:58 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: South40

Trump also has a history- on youtube, no less, of saying exactly the same things he’s saying now. Interview with Oprah Winfrey. 1988, IIRC.


80 posted on 08/03/2015 4:34:25 PM PDT by KGeorge (Hell no. We ain't forgettin'.)
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