Posted on 05/29/2015 5:11:26 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The conventional wisdom shows Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul strongly competing for the Republican presidential nomination. But a close analysis of the latest Quinnipiac University National Poll indicates that with strong elements of the Party’s right wing, they perform poorly in comparison to Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker and, for now, Ben Carson.
Among all Republican voters, the poll shows Bush, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee and Carson are all tied at 10 percent each while Paul lags at 7 percent and Cruz at 6 percent.
But an analysis of the three key conservative groups that drive the nominating process tells a different story:
Very Conservative:
–Carson 14
–Huckabee 13
–Walker 12
–Cruz 11
–Bush 8
–Rubio 8
–Paul 8
Tea Party:
–Cruz 17
–Walker 13
–Rubio 12
–Carson 12
–Huckabee 10
–Paul 9
–Bush 6
Evangelicals:
–Huckabee 17
–Cruz 10
–Bush 9
–Walker 8
–Paul 8
–Carson 8
–Rubio 6
The tea party and the evangelicals are the two most important groups in a Republican primary.
Cruz dominates the tea party field and does well among evangelicals. Huckabee dominates the evangelical voter base and does well among tea party voters. Walker scores well among the tea party crowd but does poorly with evangelicals.
By contrast, neither Paul nor Rubio trigger much enthusiasm in either group and do poorly among very conservative voters. Their poor showing among these key groups would seem to indicate that they might find it difficult to motivate their voters.
For Jeb Bush, his tepid showing with evangelicals and tea party backers may not be lethal. His prestige and money will likely even the odds down the road.
The poll begs the question of whether Ben Carson’s support is real. Coming in with the top tier among all primary voters and first among very conservative Republicans, indicates a great deal of latent power. Whether he can sustain that is another question. How much of his support is biographic reflecting his celebrity status as a role model/doctor? Can he transfer it to a political context?
We will see, but the poor showing of Rubio and Paul and the strong appeal to staunch conservatives of Huckabee, Cruz and Walker is the real story of this early date in the contest.
Interesting that the TEA Party is so unique.
I’m for Walker. Cruz is my next best. But Rubio will get it. That is not an endorsement of Rubio btw. I just think the fix is in.
To me, Huckabee is the Republican’s Hillary. He’s disgraceful and a hypocrite.
There is a serious lack of logical-thinking and situational-awareness in the evangelical community. Hence: Huckabee.
I would like to see how they figured out a way to separate very conservative, tea party, and Evangelical, from each other, since they are largely the same people.
Self-identification perhaps?
Rubio would be a disaster. He has already indicated a desire to continue the flood of illegals, although he claims to have changed his mind. I don't trust him.
Cruz is my first choice. He is the most solidly conservative of the bunch. I might consider Walker as a second choice if he runs, but only if he clarifies his position on immigration. I've heard and read so many conflicting stories, I don't know what to believe.
I self identify as all three, I thought that most here would do the same.
Where would the three groups oppose each other? No where, that I am aware of.
“There is a serious lack of logical-thinking and situational-awareness in the evangelical community.”
It is mean spirited and insulting comments - like yours - towards people of conservative Christian faith that keep these good people voting for Huckabee. Change your tone or you just create a self fulfilling prophecy.
Present and back a good evangelical alternative like Cruz and avoid bad mouthing those conservative Christians, and many may move over. However, keep talking trash and you just drive them away because you (and the candidate you are for by association) become their enemy because you talk like the devil does. Ignore this plain advice to the peril of the candidate you do support.
I myself am backing Ted Cruz first, but I got to tell you I get upset when folks bad mouth my conservative evangelical brothers and sisters because the back Huckabee.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3294905/posts
I think Walker is heads and shoulders ahead of all the candidates when it comes to immigration. Even Cruz who is my second choice is not doing great on immigration according to the link.
“I myself am backing Ted Cruz first, but I got to tell you I get upset when folks bad mouth my conservative evangelical brothers and sisters because the back Huckabee.”
I’m an evangelical that wholeheartedly supports Cruz and for the life of me, I can’t figure out why so many of our brethren are taken in by Huckabee. I’m not hear to bad-mouth anyone, in my own circle I just try to gently point out why Huckabee is not a guy we should even be considering at this point in our nation’s history with so much at stake.
I find many just aren’t aware of who he really is and once you point these things out, it’s not hard to dissuade them from falling for his B.S. Others have their minds set that somehow the Huckster is someone they should consider. Either way, I’m not going to stop telling the truth (in love), even if it does turn a few people off.
Cuz nobody except political junkies is paying attention yet
Shut up Dick, and lick some toes.
Huckabee is a faux conservative and anyone who supports him is extremely low on information.
And someone who thinks they are supporting Huckabee “as a conservative” is nothing but a useful tool for the Karl Rove Jeb Bush Republican Establishment.
The idea that “three conservative groups” drive the nominating process is ridiculous. Conservatives have no influence on the final outcome in the GOP, except to designate who the GOPe and enemedia decide to destroy.
To tell the truth “in love” doesn't include terminology like “B.S.” and “Huckster.” Those are slanderous opinions NOT “truth.” Continue to “gently” point out your perceived flaws in Huckabee, but more so point out why Cruz is a better choice.
As a primarily social conservative, I think Ted Cruz is the best choice. However, it is not because of negative views of Huckabee. I think both men are sincere morally conservative Christians that will put an emphasis on moral/social issues. I just think Ted is more likely to accomplish this than Mike. So, I go with Ted.
However, prerogatives (i.e. “his B.S., or “Huckster”) against Huckabee - in my opinion are a direct attack on truly morally conservative evangelical Christians....especially Southern Baptist ones.
I don't think Jeb really wants to be President. I think he's running only because he believes this is a natural career progression for him but I get the feeling his heart's just not in it.
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