Posted on 04/04/2015 6:16:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Early 2016 polls continue to show former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton building an impressive demographic coalition — even surpassing the heights President Barack Obama reached in 2008 and 2012 — and one that will make it tough for Republicans to beat.
Most impressive: Her strengths with women — particularly college-educated women — and young voters.
“On the plus side, Secretary Clinton is considered a strong leader — a key characteristic for voters when picking a president, more so than her leading, but lesser-known, potential GOP opponents,” said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, which conducted surveys this week in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. “But about half the voters in all three states question her honesty and trustworthiness.”
Still, many of those voters plan to pick her. The numbers show that Clinton has commanding leads over significant potential Republican challengers among those key demographics. Here’s how she fares with young people aged 18-39 against select opponents:
•Clinton 63, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 30 (Clinton leads 53-41 overall among registered voters)
•Clinton 67, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz 26 (56-39 overall)
•Clinton 64, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 29 (54-40 overall)
•Clinton 66, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio 26 (54-39 overall)
Clinton also has major advantages among women:
•58-36 over Bush
•61-33 over Cruz
•60-33 over Walker
•59-33 over Rubio
Here’s a chart from Langer Research that demonstrates her dominance against those candidates:
The numbers are important for a couple reasons.
First, it wouldn’t be crazy to think Clinton might have trouble luring young voters to her camp.
In 2008, the last time she ran for president, Obama walloped Clinton among youth voters in the Democratic primary. Her campaign at times almost dismissed young voters. After Obama tripled her share of the youth vote in Iowa, it made one of her top advisers say, “Our people look like caucus-goers and his people look like they are 18.”
But so far, she’s looking more like the Obama of 2008 than her 2008 candidacy (or Obama’s 2012 numbers). Obama won 60 percent of the 18-29 vote in 2012, and 52 percent of the 30-44 vote, according to national exit polls.
Clinton’s numbers in the recent polls align with those from Fusion’s Massive Millennial Poll, which surveyed 1000 people aged 18-34 about everything from politics to dating to race issues. The February poll found 38 percent of the millennials surveyed — including 57 percent of millennial Democrats surveyed in the poll — prefer Clinton as president.
But also impressive in early surveys are Clinton’s numbers among women. Obama earned 56 percent of the female vote in 2008 and 55 percent in 2012, and she’s showing signs that she could truly dominate among female voters.
“Most notable on the Democratic side are Clinton’s gender and racial gaps,” Langer Research wrote in its analysis of its poll. “Some of these same patterns play out in general election preferences.”
Those numbers largely hold up in three key swing states, according to Quinnipiac polls released earlier this week. Clinton’s coalition remains formidable in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — and Republicans will almost certainly need to swing one or more of those states from the 2012 results to win.
Clinton trails Bush overall in Florida, but she has a 7-point advantage among women. And as National Journal points out, she earns half of the college-educated women’s vote against Bush, far surpassing Obama’s 42 percent in 2012. Against New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (53 percent) and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (55 percent), those margins are even bigger.
In Ohio, she leads all candidates among women by double digits. Same goes for Pennsylvania, where she has at least an 18-point lead among female voters, including a whopping 23-point advantage over Bush.
A lot can change once the campaign officially begins — polls already show Clinton’s favorability levels plunging from her grace period after stepping down as secretary of state. As And as she continues her campaign before the official campaign, the past few weeks have shown that she is anything but invincible in a likely run for president.
But the early surveys show her potential to not only match, but actually improve upon, Obama’s 2012 performance in key demographics.
WHAT in the WORLD makes Hillary a “strong” leader?????
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She’s uber-rich and ensures her enemies are killed off.
Laz, I know what you have been saying about us never seeing a conservative president again as long as we live. Who knows if that is true or not, but it could be. A lot of people have been saying for a long time, that Obama, Clinton, Holder, Kerry, could BBQ little children on the White Hut lawn, and still get elected.
We have to have boots on the ground, at the college campuses, around the water cooler, etc all talking up our conservative candidates and requesting (not telling) people to “check out Ted Cruz” or check out Scott Walker for themselves. Give them freerepublic website or better yet, I have already told someone to go on the candidate’s website and READ FOR THEMSELVES what each person stands for and about.
Thanks.
“particularly college-educated women “
More proof that “More money for Educaton” isn’t the answer. These “educated” women are as dumb as a post.
Absolutely correct on the Fed reserve as well.
I just wonder when Americans are going to have had enough.
Vets, land owners, something like that could work.
I’m just tired of watching people get taken in by the politicians playing their emotions.
I talk to others all there time too. If we lose, it won’t be from lack of effort.
To say the least.
Unfortunately, I can see many young people voting for a "cool" black guy (fact: we did see that.)
But how many are going to vote for grandma?
I call BS.
Exactly.
I HOPE Rats pick this witch to run. She’d be the weakest candidate in some time.
The more you see of Hillary, the less you like her. Her cackle and cankles, her pant suits, her habitual lying. She’s terrible.
Even a no-experience Kenyan Muslim could beat her...
I say it all the time and its a fact a large number of women and minorities have no damned idea how bad they are getting screwed by voting for a rat.
My wife agrees - she is a staunch conservative and has her head on straight but she is very aware of how "off" a LOT of women are when it comes to making decisions for which politician to seat.
In Florida the massively-funded Hillary has a 7-point advantage among women; and half of the college-educated women’s vote (against Bush), far surpassing Obama’s 42 percent in 2012. Against NJ Gov. Chris Christie (53 percent) and against Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (55 percent), her margins are even bigger.
In Ohio, she leads all candidates among women by double digits. Same goes for Pennsylvania, where she has at least an 18-point lead among female voters, including a whopping 23-point advantage over Bush.
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Then-Repub Majority Leader---Eric Cantor (Va)---- had tons of money---he spent 26X times his opponent's $100K.
<><> Cantor consistently polled an astounding 34 points ahead of the unknown candidate Brat.
<><> Cantor was considered "inevitable" and "untouchable".
<><> Cantor had no ethics problems.
<><> Cantor sucked-up to "suncoast"--an anti-tea party group.
<><> Cantor sucked up to the latino vote.
<><> Cantor showboated his leadership---was into "diversity."
=============================================
BY CONTRAST CANDIDATE BRAT ran as Cantor's TERM LIMIT
<><> Brat roundly opposed, and was vociferous against amnesty,.
<><> Brat ran as a staunch conservative (now in Congress he has a conservative rating 100%.)
<><> On elections day, Brat got 18,000 more Repub out to the polls than the previous election that elected Cantor.
CANTOR IN DEFEAT----DUMBFOUNDED:
I agree with you and I am a woman. I have understood for a long time why the founders did not give women the vote. It became most obvious when my sisters and friends voted for Clinton based on his looks alone.
Now we have a woman running only on her gender and thousands of women stupid enough to vote for her simply because of her gender.
God, I’m tired of this modern world.
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