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Senate Update: Polls Point Increasingly To Republican Senate Win
FiveThirtyEight ^ | November 1, 2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 11/02/2014 7:59:42 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

By this point in an election year, when polls are coming in by the bucketload late in the evening, you can get a sense for which pollsters are taking fresh samples of public opinion and which are herding toward the conventional wisdom.

J. Ann Selzer, whose firm Selzer & Company conducts the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, is in the former group: She’s always been one to trust what her data is telling her. On Dec. 31, 2007, Selzer’s poll was among the first to show a large lead for Barack Obama in the Iowa Democratic caucuses — most other polls had a small edge for Hillary Clinton. But Selzer’s poll proved to almost exactly match Obama’s margin in the caucuses four days later.

In September this year, Selzer’s poll showed a 6 percentage-point lead for the Republican Joni Enrst in the Iowa Senate race, defying others that had shown the race as a tossup. Although an early October Selzer poll showed the Democrat Bruce Braley narrowing his deficit to just 1 point, the final Des Moines Register poll, released Saturday night, has Ernst up 51-44 — a 7-point advantage. Other polls of Iowa show Ernst ahead, on average, by a percentage point or two....

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls; State and Local; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: barley; elections; ernst; ia; joniernst; polls; senateraces
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1 posted on 11/02/2014 7:59:42 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Its just a gut feeling but I think there are some big surprises coming in a good way.


2 posted on 11/02/2014 8:03:01 AM PST by cripplecreek (You can't half ass conservatism.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I simply trust no one...too much cheating...The machine that was flipping votes to the other party...someone stuffing a ballot box...geez...


3 posted on 11/02/2014 8:03:07 AM PST by Sacajaweau
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To: Sacajaweau

Agreed - this is how I felt in 2012. I thought for sure the impostor would be booted out of the White House.


4 posted on 11/02/2014 8:09:32 AM PST by JudyinCanada
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
73% probability for a GOP Senate takeover is the best result so far this election season from Nate Silver.


5 posted on 11/02/2014 8:10:48 AM PST by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: Sacajaweau

My feeling on these “polls” is the same feeling I had when some “pollsters” were predicting a Romney win. Funny thing, I don’t recall that happening. Many of the “key” elections are too close and could easily flip one way or the other and when anything is this close, when I factor in the dem cheating senario, I take those polls with a grain of salt. Two local examples:

Yesterday in Duval County (Jacksonville), someone cut the phone cables at the GOP party HQ such that they were unable to make any voter calls. Today in the local rag, which remarkedly supported Scott, there was an AP story which was so anti Scott to make ones blood boil. A one side hit piece noting all the downsides, from the dem point of view, of his administration, while not mentioning anything about Crist in a supposedly “even tempered” view of the candidates.

It would not surprise me one bit to wake up on Wednesday to some headline which reads: GOP falls short nationally in Senate bid, will have 49 seats...Scot loses by 100K.


6 posted on 11/02/2014 8:11:51 AM PST by Mouton (The insurrection laws perpetuate what we have for a government now.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Silver recognizes that the turn of events in Iowa is significant. If the Iowa turn turns out to be a national trend, Tuesday is going to be bad news for the Democrats. They will, of course, cling to faint hope in the potential runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana, but Nunn and Landrieu are going to need a ton of dead folks to pull it off.


7 posted on 11/02/2014 8:21:28 AM PST by centurion316
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To: JudyinCanada

2012 most polls had the GOP losing.


8 posted on 11/02/2014 8:22:46 AM PST by Perdogg (I'm on a no Carb diet- NO Christie Ayotte Romney or Bush)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
the GOP’s chances of taking over the Senate, which are now 72 percent [Dem chances 28 percent]...

If I instead tell the model to assume the polls have no overall bias — even though they might be off in particular states — the Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate would be just 17 percent.

Margin of fraud = 11 percent.

9 posted on 11/02/2014 8:26:58 AM PST by MUDDOG
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To: InterceptPoint

yes there was much fraud in 2012 and then again many “conservatives” decided that they couldn’t vote for a Mormon and sat home, voted third party, or just didn’t vote...many on FR sadly....


10 posted on 11/02/2014 8:49:04 AM PST by cherry
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To: cripplecreek

It’s not looking good in NC 150,000 more Democrats vs Republicans have early voted


11 posted on 11/02/2014 8:53:04 AM PST by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
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To: personalaccts

But how does that compare to past elections?


12 posted on 11/02/2014 8:56:27 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: cripplecreek

Win the senate it is a must do.


13 posted on 11/02/2014 9:01:19 AM PST by Big Horn (Rebuild the GOP to a conservative party)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Silver has the odds of GOP taking over Senate @ 73%. What are the odds, Mr Silver, if you factor in massive voter fraud by the Rats...?


14 posted on 11/02/2014 9:03:00 AM PST by freebilly (How about this-- we stop trying to elect the unelectable)
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To: Sacajaweau
Not to worry. The dems have a NOVEMBER SURPRISE in store for us all.

 photo LERNERFOUNDATIONcopy_zps705a95cb.jpg

15 posted on 11/02/2014 9:11:01 AM PST by Dick Bachert (When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty. ~ Thomas Jefferson)
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To: jjotto

According to Jamie Dupree, it’s a significant difference from the past, in favor of the Dems, but I put more stock in the polls showing Kay Hagan around 44%.


16 posted on 11/02/2014 9:37:04 AM PST by MUDDOG
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To: freebilly

I think Silver’s “special sauce” is inside info about Dem GOTV effort, which I think he admitted in ‘08. Unless the Dems deprived him of it when he left NYT, he knows it ain’t happening for them this time.


17 posted on 11/02/2014 9:43:19 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: jjotto

It’s up and they’ve really mobilized the black vote


18 posted on 11/02/2014 10:08:45 AM PST by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
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To: personalaccts

Argh C’mon North Carolina!!!!!!!


19 posted on 11/02/2014 10:23:04 AM PST by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: CPT Clay

Yeah, depressed turnout will kill the Dems in NC. Tea Party Repubs will turn out just to boost Kay Hagan from her seat.


20 posted on 11/02/2014 4:36:43 PM PST by struggle
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