The Math of the GOP Nomination

WeArePolitics.com ^ | 2/3/2012 | Randy Evans

[Billlknowles]

For all the 2012 GOP candidates, it is the math that makes securing the nomination so complicated. There will be 2,165 delegates to the Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Florida. In order to win the Republican Nomination, a Presidential candidate must have 1,144 delegates. To put this in perspective, only 112 delegates (less than 10%) have been won. In fact, the candidate with the most delegates (former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney) has only 71 delegates.

This seems rather amazing given all of the media attention so far. From the Iowa caucuses to the Florida primary seems like an eternity for most voters, yet there are still 46 more states (plus American territories) to go. Already, there have been more swings than the crazy boat ride at White Water park. Just when the media thinks things are sewn up, voters send the signal that they are not done yet.

[PapaNew]

Just when the media thinks things are sewn up, voters send the signal that they are not done yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yRdDnrB5kM

[ClearCase_guy]

Precisely why the media is pushing so hard to say that the race is over and that Romney won the nomination easily. It’s like watching a basketball game and saying, “Look! My team just scored it’s eighth point!! This game is OVER! You have no chance!”

[ez]

Not to mention that the media will now appreciably dissipate, making it less likely that they will be able to attack individual candidates in the manner they attacked Newt in IA and FL. This is not over yet.

[hoosiermama]

According to NPR via NYT
NEWT leads Mitt 39-32!!

Pass the word!

Click to Donate to Newt Gingrich

[bksanders]

"The last GOP primary is on June 26, 2012 in Utah"

My, my! How appropo!
A meaningless primary with Newt having already secured the nomination…

Has anyone put together a spreadsheet analysis of the expected delegate counts?
I believe I'll fling one together for grins.

[Mr. K]

If “Mitt” has to keep outspending everyone 65:1 to prove he is “more electable” Newt will bankrupt him before the finish line

I am hoping for a brokered convention at this point

NO ROMNEY

Tea Party MArch on GOP Headquarters anyone?

[Texas Fossil]

The Math?

only 112 delegates (less than 10%) have been won.

Duuhhh. 112/2165= 5.17%

Roughly 1/2 of the 10% mentioned.

[bksanders]

Here is one source:

Tea Party Cheer

[bksanders]

Well here is my first pass through:

If it's difficult to read here goes:

Newt goes to the convention with 664 delegates, The Mittiot 929.
Assuming both Santorum and Paul ride the thing out (doubtful) you have their delegates and the "unaccounted" up for grabs for the first vote.
Assuming a 50/50 split gives the Mittiot more than the required number (1275).
The next scenario shows Newt basically needing a 70/30 split of those delegates.
Of course CA is huge… and I have it going to the Mittiot.

I will upload this spreadsheet to Scribd and post a link here. For your entertainment only, of course!
I will set user input fields for simplification, a lot of math (formula) is built into it.
For example RP's count is the remainder of the aggregate G/R/S count; eliminating a chance for over 100% distribution.
Basically you set the percentage of votes for each candidate in each remaining state and a result falls out.

I have Florida, Arizona, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Jersey, Calif and Utah going winner-take-all to the Mittiot.
Of course this is all hokey pokey as Priebus and friends are writing the rules as I type.
We don't even know how Florida and the other renegade states will be handled.
One thing seems for sure, it will get ugly with the GOP pulling every trick and inventing a few.

FWIW: Ignore the 2165 figure, it came from the original post header.

I don't even pretend to understand how Montana, New York and other states will "actually" allocate delegates.
And WTH are the "loophole primaries" in IL and PA? It's pretty mind-boggling by design.

[bksanders]

Well FWIW here is a link to The Delegate Projection Spreadsheet

Cells highlighted in orange are fair game, the other cells should not be altered.
(Or you'll have Karl Rove hounding you until late October…)
Using South Carolina as an example you will see that delegates are not strictly divided proportionally.
Some states allot "winner take all" for districts then allocate the lions share to the statewide winner.

SC ALLOCATION

Isn't it strange how even with Newt winning SC the Mittiot gets the Google headlines…

ROMNEY BIAS

[hoosiermama]

Good information to keep for possible tarkets /info Bet they are all part of the same news chain or receive the same AP material that they cut/paste and modify to make just a little different.

According to NPR via NYT
NEWT leads Mitt 39-32
when FL vote divided per RNC rules!

Pass the word!

Click to Donate to Newt Gingrich

CONTACT FOR RNC: website@nrcc.org

[PapaNew]

That's kind of cool.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/80452006/GOP-Primary-Convention-Delegate-Projection

Is there a way to get this chart in an interactive format like excel (so you can manually track projected to actual)?

So the theory is if it goes per projection it'll be a brokered convention and then it looks like an even split between Newt and Mitt. But it's not clear to me what the odds are after that.