[PapaNew]

Just when the media thinks things are sewn up, voters send the signal that they are not done yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yRdDnrB5kM

[ClearCase_guy]

Precisely why the media is pushing so hard to say that the race is over and that Romney won the nomination easily. It’s like watching a basketball game and saying, “Look! My team just scored it’s eighth point!! This game is OVER! You have no chance!”

[hoosiermama]

According to NPR via NYT
NEWT leads Mitt 39-32!!

Pass the word!

Click to Donate to Newt Gingrich

[bksanders]

"The last GOP primary is on June 26, 2012 in Utah"

My, my! How appropo!
A meaningless primary with Newt having already secured the nomination…

Has anyone put together a spreadsheet analysis of the expected delegate counts?
I believe I'll fling one together for grins.

[Mr. K]

If “Mitt” has to keep outspending everyone 65:1 to prove he is “more electable” Newt will bankrupt him before the finish line

I am hoping for a brokered convention at this point

NO ROMNEY

Tea Party MArch on GOP Headquarters anyone?

[Texas Fossil]

The Math?

only 112 delegates (less than 10%) have been won.

Duuhhh. 112/2165= 5.17%

Roughly 1/2 of the 10% mentioned.

[bksanders]

Well here is my first pass through:

If it's difficult to read here goes:

Newt goes to the convention with 664 delegates, The Mittiot 929.
Assuming both Santorum and Paul ride the thing out (doubtful) you have their delegates and the "unaccounted" up for grabs for the first vote.
Assuming a 50/50 split gives the Mittiot more than the required number (1275).
The next scenario shows Newt basically needing a 70/30 split of those delegates.
Of course CA is huge… and I have it going to the Mittiot.

I will upload this spreadsheet to Scribd and post a link here. For your entertainment only, of course!
I will set user input fields for simplification, a lot of math (formula) is built into it.
For example RP's count is the remainder of the aggregate G/R/S count; eliminating a chance for over 100% distribution.
Basically you set the percentage of votes for each candidate in each remaining state and a result falls out.

I have Florida, Arizona, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Jersey, Calif and Utah going winner-take-all to the Mittiot.
Of course this is all hokey pokey as Priebus and friends are writing the rules as I type.
We don't even know how Florida and the other renegade states will be handled.
One thing seems for sure, it will get ugly with the GOP pulling every trick and inventing a few.

FWIW: Ignore the 2165 figure, it came from the original post header.

I don't even pretend to understand how Montana, New York and other states will "actually" allocate delegates.
And WTH are the "loophole primaries" in IL and PA? It's pretty mind-boggling by design.