In turn, for this to work they need a semi-legitimate Fifth Column on Taiwan, who would for call for mainland intervention in the manufacutred "crisis."
Regards to all. S&W R.I.P.
Now that Bush is in office, it's a good deal less likely. The only thing that could really deter them is wondering what we might do in response. Keep in mind that they now have a dozen or more ICBMs targeted on American cities, which forces us to be very careful what we do. Also they could probably destroy a carrier fleet in the area with nukes, although of course that would risk a devastating counter-blow.
No one wants a nuclear exchange, so it's something of a stand-off. In that situation, as we saw with the USSR, a great deal depends on the known determination and resolve of the United States. I think our resolve is a lot better KNOWN now than it was last year. The Chinese have always suspected that we are paper tigers, but I trust they are less sure about that than they were in the days when they were paying the DNC for clinton's election campaigns.
Then I will respond the same way that the Taiwanese react to current war in Middle East.
Who cares?
Really?
In this entire scenario, the word "submarine" does not appear. Apparently the attack subs from the U.S. and Taiwan that constantly patrol the Straits will be on vacation that week.
A few attack subs in the area would really put a hitch in any invasion get-along, as they should be able to take out any escorts (and larger transports) of an invasion fleet, making the remaining transports and landing craft sitting ducks for smaller missle and gun platforms.
1: All Taiwan's investment is going into China, therefore China has gained enormous economic leverage without doing anything.
2: China has joined the WTO. The importance of this cannot be overstated. China's primary goal is that the country's economy successfully transforms and competes on the world stage.
3: An attack would have very unpredictable results at a time when China's markets are starting to liberalize. When China had protected markets, it had a lot more control over its economy and was a lot less vulnerable to outside factors.
4: The Taiwan issue is just a diversion. Politicians have formented or hyped up the possibility of conflict abroad as a way of diverting attention from the mess at home. As I stated before, China doesn't need to invade Taiwan.
The massive social instability that the changes in the chinese economy has wrought and the almost total lack of political reform means that 'the man in the street' needs to be distracted. What is closer to every man (and womane etc.) but an deeply emotive territorial question? It is my belief that the Chinese saw the disaster in the Soviet Union where political reform preceeded economic reform and so reversed the strategy. A man cannot 'eat' political rights. With a billion + people, it is not a decision taken lightly. Such a strategy syncs with Chinese tradtion of focusing much more on the long term goals. It's my bet that political reform will start with a two party state setup...
I could, of course, be completely wrong. We'll see (in the next 5 to twenty years).
VRN
It won't be a huge invasion at first with bombs and planes and ground troops, but rather a series of small actions that will grow in scale and scope. We of course will rattle our saber and warn China against any further action, but it will be too late.
Remember China's goal is to expand their territory. They can smile at us and even pretend to be open to some western influence (like maybe they'll let their citizans view the internet for a brief period of time, like with 9/11). But the reality is that this government is a cold, blood-thirsty communist regime bent on destroying the west. Sorry to be so upbeat, but it IMHO it is going to happen.
Our main problem in this world is ISLAM!!! do not take your eyes off the ball!! The Chinese were cooperative, they are more human than all and any of our so called moslem friends. Hey right wingers, give it a rest with the red China thing!!!