[Bommer]

What crap! All I read is CHINA COULD, not that CHINA CAN! Its 100 miles across open seas to Tiawan. And don't think for a second that Taiwan is not ready to completely obilterate a Chinese invasion force, not to mention they would also have to fight the US! China is like the Arabs, all talk and flex! Granted in the long run China COULD win, but pay heavily militarily and economically! They know that without stealing our military secrets, they are worthless!

[Hopalong]

At bottom, it's not a question of whether the Chicoms' could "win", old chap.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[Paulie]

First you say: "What crap! All I read is CHINA COULD, not that CHINA CAN!". Then you go on to say "Granted in the long run China COULD win,"

So I take it you really mean this essay may not be "crap" after all. Is that correct?

[Hopalong]

"Granted in the long run China COULD win, but pay heavily militarily and economically!"

Merely by the way, except under a political charade as outlined in #3, with potential opponents somehow politically and diplomatically subverted into not fighting, I personally don't think the ChiComs' have much chance of "winning", even "in the long run."

But again, that is not the question.

Another aspect of the current situation was mentioned, quite trenchantly in my opinion, by Poohbah quite some time ago—that is, from one point of view what the ChiComs may actually be doing is working on the first civil war in recorded history using nukes.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[Nitro]

Taiwan gets screwed, blued and tattoed every time a typhoon rolls through the area!

They might cause heavy casualties to a Chinese invasion, but 1.25 billion people is a heavy wave!

The only thing that keeps China from crossing that 100 miles is the USA's "Big Stick", the US Navy and Nuclear retaliation!!

[Paul Ross]

Boy, you are out to lunch. You have no clue how to do a 'Team-B' Worst-case analysis scenario. Taiwan just does not have the retaliatory punch you think. Nor the seaforces you think. Why do you think they are beginning to panic at the lack of submarines and Aegis cruisers? They really do need them! And GWB is playing right into Bejing's hands by not providing same.

The element of surprise as outlined, if all the precursor assumptions of sea/air-lift inadequacy are invalidated (and quite likely too if you look at the scale of the PRC purchase of Boeing's 757s) are sufficient for them to make a 'go' decision. Harry Wu has also said they will invade, AND they will use nuclear weapons. And not just against Taiwan and its defenses, but against the U.S. mainland. They are crazy enough to do it, and play a game of 'nuclear-chicken.'