Posted on 01/30/2023 10:22:19 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Let’s start with a scenario that your church has an average worship attendance of 100. I use that number for simplicity. The median worship attendance is 65.
Now, let’s ask a simple question. How many attendees do you have to add to your attendance in a year to stay even?
The answer for a typical church is 32 with a worship attendance of 100. You can double the number to 64 if the church’s attendance is 200.
Did you get that? A church has to increase the number of attendees by 32 percent each year just to stay even.
In a church with 100 in attendance, an additional 32 attendees would have to be added to stay even, and they would have to attend every Sunday. If they attend every other Sunday, the church would need an additional 64 attendees.
Where have all the church attendees gone? Let’s look at four important components:
Component No. 1: Deaths
The death rate in the United States is 1.0 people per 100 population. The death rate is likely higher in churches since many congregations have an aging membership.
Component No. 2: Moving Out of the Community.
The mobility rate in the United States was 9.3 percent in 2020. The good news is that the rate of mobility is declining. It almost reached 20 percent in 1985. Many of the moves are considered local, but most of them still move out of the church’s community.
Component No. 3: Transfer to Another Church in the Community
This number is not as precise as the previous two because it is based on the churches where we have this information, typically churches we consult. We think our estimate of 7 percent is close. In other words, your church will lose 7 church members to another local church for every 100 in attendance.
Component No. 4: Declining Attendance Frequency
We estimate that the attendance frequency is down about 15 percent per year in U. S. churches. For example, if a church had 100 members who attended every Sunday, the average attendance would be 100. If all those members attended every other week, the average attendance would be 50, or a decline of 50 percent. Declining attendance frequency is the number one factor in church decline in the United States.
So, here is our summary. For every 100 persons in attendance in your church, you will lose each year:
Thus, if you add 32 attendees for every 100 you have in attendance now, the church will stay even. Anything less and the church will decline.
But there is hope.
More on the hope factor soon.
Originally published at Church Answers
Thom S. Rainer is the founder and CEO of Church Answers, an online community and resource for church leaders. Prior to founding Church Answers, Rainer served as president and CEO of LifeWay Christian Resources. Before coming to LifeWay, he served at The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary for twelve years where he was the founding dean of the Billy Graham School of Missions and Evangelism. He is a 1977 graduate of the University of Alabama and earned his Master of Divinity and Ph.D. degrees from The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary.
I am happy to report that attendance and Parish enrollment at our little Mission Church has been steadily increasing. COVID and the Bishops authorization of the “TeleMass” hurt us for a bit, but we’re recovering.
We did this during covid and have wrestled with it continuing. It’s great for the elderly and shut-ins, but we ran into a group of regulars 5-6 who now watch the online service pretty faithfully but never darken the door. If it were not for the elderly and shut-ins we would discontinue the online broadcasts. We closed in person services in March/April of 2020, but returned in May 2020 and haven’t ceased having services but for one week in 2021 when the pastor and most of the deacons had covid.
Our death losses seem to come in spurts. About 2-3 members a year and they usually pass in the same month or close together.
In the last three years we have had loses due to death and the afore mentioned streaming reason, but we have been picking up membership at a good pace through people being saved and baptized and through people moving their letter.
We have a formerly large church in our community that has gone to a totally praise service format on the pastors decision alone without consulting the congregation and they are hemorrhaging members. Some have showed up at our church so that will probably continue.
I’d say that was the trigger for me and quite a few of my fellows.
Sheesh, I don't blame you for exiting that church. But there's no need to give up: Get thee to a Latin Mass. You won't find unCatholics like that. And you will find lots of young parents who bring babies, instead of abortion brains.
It's true the current occupant of the Chair of Peter wishes we would disappear. But we won't, and he will.
I have wondered if the churches might be better off temporarily becoming smaller. Instead of trying to please everyone, just focus on the message. If some don’t like it, so be it.
#5-—Using tax money as propaganda against Churches and Christianity.
#6-—Churches being influenced by the world instead of influencing the world.
#7-—The removal of God and destruction of the family in schools, colleges, Hollywood, movies, big tech, etc.
I’m not a Catholic but this is an ignorant remark. Far more kids are raped and sexualized in schools, colleges, etc than in the Catholic Church. Matter of fact it ain’t even close. But evil is evil and it should ALL be called out-—Priest, teacher, cop, adult, etc.
I sure understand
My parish was the ‘staging area’ for those yutes who make the Santa Monica - Wash DC March for Life each year [for those who don’t know as there is a MSM blackout for these things, a trek by foot from coast to coast in support of life of the unborn]. Great kids, was a small part of that event. But alas, it is the non-existent leadership and lack of courage among the Church leaders that I see as the main cause for people like me turning away.
Catholics are by far the largest group and are supermajority of the active religious in this Country. The splinter groups are suffering loss of participation as well, but any empirical study of religious Americans is by default about Catholics just by the numbers.
bkmk
>>When the churches left God and wrote their own bible then they terminated their reason to exist.
Exactly - many churches don’t believe in anything anymore, except donations (and pedophiles).
They did this to themselves. Good riddance.
You don’t need a church to practice your religion.
Yup. That’s one flavor of the tidal wave of heresy and emotion-based doctrine that has invaded evangelical churches in recent years. The diversion away from solid Bible-based doctrine began with the Azusa Street debacle in the early 20th Century, and spread through the “charismatic movement” from there.
The small Bible-preaching church we go to lost a lot of members that moved to more conservative parts of the country, but we are still doing okay.
I am amazed at the large number of university students that attend - gives me hope for this very liberal area.
Much worse than I imagined.
An aversion to lay leadership also factors into the equation. Men want to be involved, to have a piece of the action.
In an ideal world, every Christian man aspires to embrace pastoral responsibilities by the time he reaches middle age. And every church provides coaching to catalyze and encourage each step of that journey.
* By that time, he should have adult children whose integrity and godliness bear witness to his skill as a father.
* By that time, his hospitable dinner table should be known as a place where lovers of truth can enjoy good food and good conversation.
* By that time, he should be several decades into a rigorous self-education program.
* By that time, his personal ministry focus will have borne wholesome fruit.
* By that time, he will be known in the community for his integrity.
* By that time, the skills he sharpened by home schooling and catechizing his own children will come in handy as he encourages younger people.
* By that time, everyone will see how radiantly happy his wife is.
* By that time, he should have “a sufficiency,” enough resources to fund his own ministry outreaches, without needing to ask others to bankroll his sense of mission.
A healthy, growing church needs all the leaders it can catalyze. If an ordained, full-time “THE” minister isn’t continuously cultivating such a cadre, burnout beckons. And he may admit at the end of his life, like George Whitfield, that “we have built a rope of sand.”
We stopped attending our church because the lead pastor sees all you spoke of as competition against himself. My husband saw no reason to stay.
UK Church of England:
Aging Church of England ‘will be dead in 20 years’ (2032)
The Church of England will cease to exist in 20 years as the current generation of elderly worshippers dies, Anglican leaders warned yesterday.
By Tim Ross
12 July 2011 • 9:02pm
This sounds a bit like the church version of a Superman who has it all and can do it all. Im not sure many can meet that kind of “societal” standard and not sure either in what you might find in a person so “accomplished” in the their life…for “blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the Kingdom of Heaven.”
Every growing church I have attended had several outreach programs. The big one was any child in the neighborhood was invited to attend Sunday School. We would go around and knock on doors and invite people to church. If the adults were not interested we would offer free transportation for the children. About a third will say yes. About a quarter of those children will become faithful church members.
We also have shut in ministry where we will pick up people who do not drive and bring them to church.
If your church does not do outreach then you are not going to grow.
They might add online streaming.
Many churches initiated this during Covid and many watch online…
Our church provided online streaming starting with the Covid mess. A well off new member helped to fund the top line video equipment and paid for training. Some younger members have really gotten into the technical aspect to make the tv services more acceptable.
However, as weather has been basically mild, the on line attendance has dropped to 3-5 local families (often man/wife). We have out of town and even country tv viewers.
My wife is recovering from a hip replacement, and we both got a form of Thanksgiving Covid and basically depend on the tv services.
A friend, who is a retired mainline pastor, who could work every Sat. and Sunday in local/nearby churches with no full time pastor/rector.
Often, these churches can barely afford him to give a once a month sermon and their new PG&E bills. He donates back 10% of his fees to these churches.
One of my wife’s nursing school fellow grads, died last summer. Her funeral had to be scheduled months later by the priest. Who was trying to “yoke”/help 3 other churches to keep their doors open once a month for services and other needs. There were no full or part time employees at any of those parishes. Volunteers, when able did everything.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.