Posted on 11/09/2016 11:21:37 AM PST by ebb tide
In 2016, most of the polls were wrong, period. And polls predicting that Hillary Clinton would run away with the Catholic vote proved more wishful than accurate.
In the run-up to the election, only the IBD-TIPP poll consistently pointed to a Trump win among Catholics, as CRUX noted last week. Almost all the others suggested a significant margin of victory for Clinton. Now that the voting is over, however, preliminary results indicate Trump decisively won a majority of those self-identifying as Catholics, by 52 to 45 percent.
By contrast, President Barack Obama won Catholics narrowly, by a margin of 50 to 48 percent, in 2012.
Evangelicals flocked to Trump in far more overwhelming numbers, by a massive 81 to 16 percent.
Trump also outperformed expectations - and the 2012 precedent - among Hispanic and African American voters, while Clinton under-performed with both groups. In fact, with Hispanics, Trump bested Romney’s 2012 performance by two points, while Clinton dropped six points compared to Obama’s 2012 showing.
Both candidates had high negatives, and Clinton’s email scandal which plagued her campaign for months, and then again late in October, no doubt contributed to Trump’s victory. So did anxieties over a stagnant economy, racial animus, and the increasing costs and problems with Obamacare. But out of sight of most media reports, religious concerns also seem to have played an important role in Trump’s win. Whether religious voters were embracing Trump or blocking Clinton, there seems to be a clear political message in the result, which is that people of faith cannot be ignored, disparaged or taken for granted.
Coming on the heels of an administration known for court battles with faith-based businesses, the U.S. bishops and other religious leaders over policies such as the HHS contraception mandate, which includes sterilization procedures and drugs critics regard as abortion-inducing, revelations seen as indicative of team Clinton’s hostility to aspects of evangelical Protestantism and the Catholic faith certainly didn’t help. Nor did a Catholic on the bottom half of her ticket who took public policy positions at odds with the teaching of his Church on issues including abortion, the death penalty and marriage. Nor, of course, did leaked emails from her campaign manager discussing using political operatives to change Catholic doctrine from within the Church.
As it turns out, some of Clinton’s harshest critics were African-American church leaders, who saw these emails about Catholics as a direct threat to their beliefs and way of life. Many African-American pastors signed “An Open Letter to Hillary Clinton Regarding Religious Freedom for Black America” last month, citing the emails and other positions and statements of the candidate.
Clinton’s support among the African-American community slipped by about 5 points compared to Obama’s, while Trump picked up a percentage point compared to Romney’s 2012 performance.
Those concerns were consistent with those of other religious voters worried over Clinton’s comments last year that “religious beliefs” on issues like abortion had to change.
In fact, Clinton’s abortion positions, favoring few restrictions and with major loopholes, are at odds not only with deeply religious Americans but roughly 8 in 10 overall, who favor substantial abortion restrictions according to nearly a decade of Marist polls commissioned by Crux’s partner, the Knights of Columbus.
Likewise, Clinton’s support for repealing the Hyde Amendment isn’t shared by almost two in three Americans, with religious voters especially likely to object.
Much of the election result was doubtless driven by economic angst, and concern over the drip, drip, drip of damaging emails released by Wikileaks, the FBI and the State Department.
Yet the Clinton campaign’s perceived hostility to religious belief, and what many Americans saw as its increasingly extreme stands on issues such as abortion, certainly didn’t help. With the makeup of the Supreme Court on the line, believers felt they had much to fear from Clinton appointments.
In the days ahead, more complete data sets will shed additional light, and the comparisons between church-goers and those who don’t attend church will be particularly telling. Until then, it’s safe to say that once again, rumors of the demise of religion as a voting issue have been greatly exaggerated.
Have to admit....his performance at the Al Smith Dinner made me cringe.
But it appears to have done the trick. Drew all the attention to himself, and then pointed out to Catholics
that “she hates you!”
We Catholics were praying for a pro-life candidate and we know who that was!
It sure looks like white Catholics in Iowa tilted the state to Trump, and there’s an even greater likelihood that white Catholics reelected actual conservative Rod Bum (R) in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, which leans Democrat.
“By contrast, President Barack Obama won Catholics narrowly, by a margin of 50 to 48 percent, in 2012.”
Obama actually lost the electoral college Catholic vote in a landslide in 2012 per the states that did exit polling. It will be interesting to look at the actual individual states that did exit polling this time when they release the details by state. The Catholic vote varies wildly by region and state, you had states that where Catholics went 70% Romney and states where they went 70% Obama. Of course exit polling is just what one stranger supposedly tells another about how they voted.
Freegards
This Catholic is from California and this Catholic would never, never consider voting for anyone who hates Christians, this country, and guns
Right on. CA is the reason Obama won the popular Catholic vote in 2012. I recall Obama won Catholics by 60% in CA, lots of lib Catholics and latinos.
FReegards
Evangelicals, Catholics, and other religious recognized the heavy hand of coming despotic government beginning the persecution of the church. This wasn’t about abortion, homosexuality, or any of those issues. This was about recognizing Nero’s handwriting in its beginning stages.
What kind of POS Catholic would vote for a lady who was openly advocating for murdering babies right before they are born?
Deplorable Catholic here.
Me too! Along with the rest of a rather large Catholic extended family.
**preliminary results indicate Trump decisively won a majority of those self-identifying as Catholics, by 52 to 45 percent.**
Are Catholics Waking Up for America?
I think there is great truth in your post.
Those two are very photogenic!
As much as I am happy with the results and the increase in the Catholic vote for Trump, I am not satisfied with the 52-45 breakout. This is nothing to be ecstatic about. The evangelicals in this country put Catholics to shame.
When “self-identifying” Catholics begin to actually believe and preach the Catholic Faith, then perhaps the results will look like (or surpass) the Evangelical vote. Then again, all we need to do is look to the self-identifying “Catholic” hierarchy for the abysmal Catholic voting history. Sh!t flows downstream.
My daughter and her sister nuns have been on this:
and today on their radio show acknowledged the strength when evangelicals, orthodox, protestants, secularists, and others unite for life and religious liberty.
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