Posted on 11/28/2012 3:46:35 PM PST by NYer
For over seventy years, white blue-collar Catholics who have lived and worked in America’s once great industrial states were the voting bloc that provided the margins of victory for Franklin Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, and the two Bushes. The 2012 election results, however, indicate these Catholics no longer have that kind of clout at the ballot box.
Why? First of all, they are an aging group whose numbers are declining every year. About 650 Catholic World War II and Korean War veterans die every day. That translates into 950,000 in the last four years. Add spouses and the number may easily have hit 2 million.
Next, the once solid Catholic vote is fractured beyond repair. Millions of grandchildren and great grandchildren of those aging Catholics have abandoned their faith and embraced secularism. Fifty-seven percent of white cafeteria Catholics cast their ballots for Obama in 2012. And equal percentage of practicing Catholics voted for Romney.
Finally, in recent years a subset of blue-collar Catholics have dropped out of the work force for no apparent reason (Charles Murray examines this phenomena in Coming Apart: The State of White America). Some live with their folks, collect unemployment benefits, and occasionally grab “off the books” jobs. They refuse to become responsible adults and soak up a living from poverty programs. These Catholics typically either don’t vote or support big government candidates.
For all these reasons, plus the fact that Obama’s campaign devoted huge resources to identifying and turning out its base (and convinced former supporters to sit out the election – 8.3 million 2008 white voters did not cast a ballot this year), Romney lost all the Rust Belt states with large Catholic populations:
Pennsylvania (35 percent Catholic) – This was one to watch in 2012 because of its large white Catholic population (only 4 percent are Hispanic) and because it has the fourth oldest population in the nation. As William Galston of the Brookings Institute predicted last June: “Obama got 47 percent of the white Catholic vote in 2008; right now he has 37 percent. . .potentially a big deal in the Midwest. . . .despite the fact that Obama is now ahead in Pennsylvania, I don’t see how he carries Pennsylvania with white Catholic support at that level.”
In November, Romney received 50 percent of generic Catholic vote, down 2 percent from McCain’s 2008 percentage. White Catholics broke 56-44 percent for Romney. Obama carried nine of the top twenty Catholic counties, down two from 2008. But, in those counties, Romney’s total votes, vis–à–vis McCain’s, were down 40,192 (-2.6 percent).
|
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
|
Philadelphia
|
-6.5%
|
-21.9%
|
|
Alleghany
|
-6.7%
|
-4.7%
|
|
Montgomery
|
-10.1%
|
-2.3%
|
|
Delaware
|
-7.8%
|
-8.6%
|
|
Bucks
|
-11.1%
|
+3.3%
|
|
Chester
|
-10.9%
|
+7.8%
|
Michigan (29 percent Catholic) – In his home state, Romney received 55 percent of the generic Catholic vote and 55 percent of white Catholics. He carried 12 of the top 20 Catholic counties. Four years earlier McCain received 46 percent and 51 percent respectively, and carried only 5 of the top Catholic counties. Obama’s total votes in those counties were down 69,339 votes (-8.3 percent) while Romney’s were up 29,635 votes (+4.45 percent). Nevertheless, this small shift was not nearly enough to put Romney over the top
Romney lost Michigan because he did not make serious inroads in densely populated Catholic counties. One-time Reagan Democrats in bellwether McComb County stuck with Obama giving him 52 percent of their votes. In 2008 Obama received 53 percent. The Obama campaign’s message that Romney was a plutocrat who would shut down Michigan’s automobile industry worked.
Ohio (26 percent Catholic) – This must-win state went for Obama, 50.9 percent versus 49 percent for Romney.
Romney’s Catholic percentages improved over McCain’s by about 3 percent, but the total number of Catholics who went to the polls was down in 15 key counties, declining 3.6 percent (28,321 votes) compared to McCain. Meanwhile, Obama easily carried and maintained his margins in the densely populated heavily Catholic counties of Cuyahoga and Hamilton.
The Obama campaign convinced disenchanted white blue-collar Catholics to stay home on Election Day and while the black vote was down 1 million nationally their turnout in Ohio increased by 178,000.
Wisconsin (32 percent Catholic) – Thanks to favorite son Paul Ryan, this was the only Rust Belt state in which voter turnout increased. Total votes cast in 2012 were up 86,092 (+2.68 percent) over 2008. Obama went down 2.9 percent and Romney up 11.6 percent.
Romney carried 56 percent of the generic Catholic vote and 57 percent of white Catholics (McCain got 53 percent and 52 percent, respectively). The Romney ticket also squeaked by in Ryan’s congressional district with 51 percent. (McCain, 48 percent).
Romney increased his vote totals over McCain’s in all but two top Catholic counties. He won 24 (versus 9 for McCain), but his vote total was only 63,266 out of 2.4 million cast. Romney’s gains were offset by Obama’s gains in the two most populated Catholic counties, Dane (Madison) and Milwaukee. The Obama campaign focused on its base and turned out more supporters than in 2008. Obama carried Wisconsin with 53 percent (56 percent in 2008).
Romney needed at least two of the states described here to win. He lost them all because, in my judgment, practicing Catholic voters were not persuaded to come out in force.
Romney’s numbers crunchers did not understand the importance of practicing Catholics in tightly contested Rust Belt states and did not effectively cultivate them. They were also afraid to advertise Romney’s anti-abortion stand and opposition to same-sex marriage to energize these Catholics. The Obama campaign exploited these errors. And let’s not forget the American bishops. Most of them failed to mobilize Catholics over religious liberty on Election Day.
Thus ends a once great force in America’s electoral politics: white Catholic voters. What a pity.
Right now I am more worried about Catholic power in the voting booth and how it has been used in America.
For God’s sake, quit trying to conceal, and justify, and stop discussion of the Catholic vote, and switch to figuring how to change Catholics and end their powerful pro-abortion influence.
The Catholic vote is large and important, unfortunately it is pro-democrat and pro-abortion, stop defending it, and help us crack it, fix it, change it from it’s historical place in the democrat column.
Who is the "us" you are referring to and are your efforts exclusively politically motivated or do you care about the Salvation of said Catholics?
Nearly as many Catholics did not vote at all as voted for both parties. By definition, you have no exit polling data on the reasons they did not vote. It is entirely possible that they did not vote because they had moral objections to both parties. Although it has not prevented me from voting I too have moral problems with both parties.
Peace be with you.
“The Catholic vote is large and important, unfortunately it is pro-democrat and pro-abortion, stop defending it, and help us crack it, fix it, change it from it’s historical place in the democrat column.”
“Us” is pro-lifers and conservatives, that should not need to be explained to a freeper.
I am a pro-lifer, a conservative, AND a Catholic. You do not speak for me.
more of me needs to disappear.
Obama meeting with the Pope doesn’t confer any blessing on Obama. Remember, the Pope is a Head of State, and he’s meeting the President of the United States, as the Pope has done with most other US Presidents recently.
For God’s sake, quit trying to conceal, and justify, and stop discussion of the Evangelical vote, and switch to figuring how to change the 20 to 30% of Evangelicals and end their powerful pro-abortion influence
And how many of your denomination voted for the Dims? you are discussing about others but can’t see the plank in your eye?
And you can use that same statement about Catholics as a whole
Actually, as you said, 52% of Latino non-C voted D and 70% of Latino C voted D --> hardly a great difference
The fact that the Catholic vote has gone republican 5 or 6 times in history and may never do so again, is not encouraging.
The fact that Hispanics who become Protestant are about 50/50 in their voting, is encouraging because it gives the pro-life movement hope that they can be won over to conservatism, the fact that Hispanics who are members of the Catholic denomination are overwhelmingly a pro-abortion vote, and always will be, and that today’s Catholic vote is as good as it gets, is discouraging.
The fact that some people try to conceal, and justify, and stop discussion of the Catholic vote and harp on the 75% and 80% pro-life Evangelical vote(the best in existence) as the problem, because it isn’t 100% and who seem angry and jealous, even hostile about Evangelical Christians while discussing voting, is just mind blowing, but we do see it.
The fact that Hispanics who become P are about 50/50 is not different than the fact that 50% of Catholic did not vote for the Ds and that number will increase
The fact that Hispanics who become P voted 50% for D is also no different than the 70% of Hispanics who didn't become P who voted for D
you mean you are ok with 20% voting for pro-death?
Shame on you
Also, going by Pew numbers, 9 million Evang's voted for Obama -- lower than the 14 million Catholics, but very bad
Add this to the 21 million Pros who voted Obama and you see where Obama's support lies
So, you as an evangelical should focus on the 9 million E's who voted Obama -- you still haven't mentioned how many of your sub-denomination voted for Obama -- why?
Lol, this is just too bizarre.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.