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California: Fast-fading Bustamante has conservatives re-thinking Schwarzenegger support
California Public Policy Foundation Capitol Watch email | October 3, 2003

Posted on 10/03/2003 11:56:49 AM PDT by John Jorsett

Some conservative Republicans who say they believe state Sen. Tom McClintock would be a better governor than Arnold Schwarzenegger but who planned to vote for Schwarzenegger as their best hope of electing a Republican are switching to McClintock in light of recent polls indicating both GOP candidates will likely finish ahead of Cruz Bustamante. "If it is down to a two-man race," a GOP activist said, "my vote is for Tom. Schwarzenegger seemed to be the lesser of two evils compared to Bustamante, but that rationale disappears when Bustamante turns out to be the candidate that can't win."

McClintock, who has run ahead of Schwarzenegger among Independent voters, enjoys statewide favorable/unfavorable ratings much better than any other major candidate. GOP political observers say this factor, if it combines with a large-scale movement among Republicans who feel free now to "vote their consciences," could significantly increase McClin- tock's support by Tuesday.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: bustmantepropaganda; calgov2002; catholiclist; himom; keywordcrud; mcclintock; misinformation; post7waaah; recall; sabertoothwashere; schwarzenegger; spin
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To: GatorGirl; maryz; *Catholic_list; afraidfortherepublic; Antoninus; Aquinasfan; Askel5; livius; ...
Ping.
161 posted on 10/04/2003 6:38:25 PM PDT by narses ("The do-it-yourself Mass is ended. Go in peace" Francis Cardinal Arinze of Nigeria)
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To: Hoverbug
When the counts come in for each candidate, we will see who helped and who hurt the effort to unseat a Democrat Governor. The GOP initiated the Recall, and a lot is at stake for all Republicans.
162 posted on 10/04/2003 6:48:42 PM PDT by Consort
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To: Consort
The GOP initiated the Recall

Consort,

The GOP did not initiate the recall! The GOP came out against it, instead prefering to leave the State in the hands of Davis so that Boxer and Davis could be tied together in 2006.

Hb

163 posted on 10/04/2003 7:30:30 PM PDT by Hoverbug
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To: Hoverbug
The GOP did not initiate the recall!

I thought Issa was a Republican.

164 posted on 10/04/2003 7:44:42 PM PDT by Consort
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To: Consort
Issa is not the GOP. Issa is Issa.

The GOP entered with their annointed one Arnie and Issa was history.

Hb
165 posted on 10/04/2003 7:47:44 PM PDT by Hoverbug
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To: Hoverbug
OK
166 posted on 10/04/2003 7:50:20 PM PDT by Consort
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To: Republic Rocker
THIS IS A WINNER TAKE ALL. FOR THE STATE AS WELL AS THE NATION.

" The Nation?" Nonsense.

167 posted on 10/04/2003 7:50:56 PM PDT by L.N. Smithee (Hey, Democrats! Our groper can beat up your groper!)
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To: The Old Hoosier
Thanks for the comment. Interesting.
168 posted on 10/04/2003 7:51:18 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: Hoverbug
That's a fair question, but it's one I don't know how to quantify. I think Tom has taken zero of Arnald's base support away, but there is still the question of whether McClintock will have taken enough conservative vote away to usher in Bustamante.

It is fair to make the opposite comment as well, but Arnold would have to give quite a bit more to McClintock for him to win.

Then there's the problem with Democrat crossover vote to Arnold. Would that go to Tom or back to a democrat? I think it would go to a democrat. If it went to a democrat, would Arnold be able to give McClintock enough to overcome that vote?

Polls about three to four weeks ago showed 17-19% being pulled from the Democrats to Arnold's campaign.
169 posted on 10/04/2003 7:58:17 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: DoughtyOne
DO,
I agree in that I haven't heard one person say, "Well, I really like Arnold, and he'd make a better governor, but I'm voting for Tom" while I have heard the opposite around here. I've also heard supossed conservatives around here say they would never vote for Tom, the only reason being he is too conservative.

A lot of the votes in Arnold's column are people who really want Tom. With 65% of the vote locked up between Tom and Arnold, Busty doesn't stand a chance in a 3 way race. (People are so pi$$ed he doesn't stand a chance is a two way either). Whatever the number, as long as it's a 3 way race, the crossover from Busty to Arnold is moot.

I think the only question now is will the results be
(1)Tom,
(2)Arnie,
(3)Busty

or

(1)Arnie,
(2)Tom,
(3)Busty.

I'm voting my concience. Always have been. But to those who want Tom but are voting for Arnie, I think they're making a mistake, especially now.

Hb



170 posted on 10/04/2003 8:30:19 PM PDT by Hoverbug
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To: Hoverbug
or

(1)Busty,
(2)Arnie,
(3)Tom.

171 posted on 10/04/2003 8:40:02 PM PDT by cinFLA
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To: Hoverbug
The highest recent figures I've seen for Tom are 15%. Perhaps I missed something in the last four days or so though. Maybe you can correct me.

I don't think Schwarzenegger is going to get 50% or anything near it. I think he may pull in 40, but I'm not banking on that either.

If you think Schwarzenegger is going to come in first and McClintock second, you must be expecting something like 45% Arnold, 20% McClintock and 18% Bustamante. Even if you think Bustamante will get 25% and McClintock a hair more, I think you are wrong with regard to the Bustamante vote.

Whatever Bustamante gets will be the die-hard democrat base. I think they'll also pull in green party numbers. I can not see that base lowering to 25%. I still think Bustamante is going to pull in around 35%.

We shall see.
172 posted on 10/04/2003 8:45:15 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: cinFLA
Not in this election. Busty has at 30%. The plurality of the 65% is being fought for between Tom and Arnie and has nothing to do with Busty.

Hb
173 posted on 10/04/2003 8:46:35 PM PDT by Hoverbug
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To: goldstategop
"No but imagine two Republican vote getters finishing AHEAD of the Democrats. The humiliation of the Davis-Clinton machine in California will be complete!"

You don't really expect that to happen, do you?

The communists will be pulling another Florida recount. Davis maybe Govenor for another 6 months after the election, due to the number of re-counts it takes for the communists to steal the election.

174 posted on 10/04/2003 8:50:56 PM PDT by auggy (http://home.bellsouth.net/p/PWP-DownhomeKY /// Check out My USA Photo album & Fat Files)
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To: Hoverbug
Better go back and look again!

CNN/USA Today/Gallup




Arnold
40%
Bustamante -- 25%
McClintock ----18%
LA Times




Arnold
40%
Bustamante -- 32%
McClintock ----15%
Field Poll




Arnold
36%
Bustamante -- 26%
Survey USA




Arnold
39%
Bustamante -- 32%
McClintock --- 18%
175 posted on 10/04/2003 8:54:13 PM PDT by cinFLA
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To: John Jorsett; All
The keywords thing is 'Classic' freeperish! I have seen the same kinds of things on Arnold threads, for instance Kennedy-lover etc. Seems silly to let this bother you!
176 posted on 10/04/2003 9:00:42 PM PDT by ladyinred (The left have blood on their hands.)
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To: cinFLA
Yep, then there's these:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/995253/posts

CNN/USA Today/Gallup



YES on Recall -- 63%
NO on Recall ---- 35%
Undecided
2%
Los Angeles Times




YES on Recall -- 56%
NO on Recall ----42%
Undecided
2%
Field Poll




YES on Recall -- 57%
NO on Recall ---- 39%
Undecided
4%




The only way Davis can survive is through massive vote fraud -- which we don't put past him considering that he is one of this country's most corrupt governors. However, since Gray Davis' "unfavorable" ratings are as high as 73%, we are comfortable that "Yes On Recall" will triumph, and we optimistically predict that over 60% of voters will vote to oust him.





LATEST CANDIDATE POLLS: ARNOLD ON TOP, BUSTAMANTE SINKING ...
Following are most recent polls for the Gubernatorial candidates:


KABC-7



Arnold
45%
Bustamante -- 28%
McClintock ----16%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup




Arnold
40%
Bustamante -- 25%
McClintock ----18%
LA Times




Arnold
40%
Bustamante -- 32%
McClintock ----15%
Field Poll




Arnold
36%
Bustamante -- 26%
Survey USA




Arnold
39%
Bustamante -- 32%
McClintock --- 18%


I think Busty will come out no higher tha 30%, and probably lower with Tom and Arnie arguing over near 65% of the vote. But that's what makes a horse race.

The slimers are still at it too. Have you seen the "lady in red" thread? I think the big bombs on both Tom and Arnold will come out Monday evening with no time for rebuttal from either. Probably neither of our polls has any basis in reality with 2 days left before election day.

Hb
177 posted on 10/04/2003 9:42:09 PM PDT by Hoverbug
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Comment #178 Removed by Moderator

To: Hoverbug
You've lost it.
179 posted on 10/04/2003 9:45:48 PM PDT by My2Cents (Well...there you go again.)
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To: My2Cents
If some of all those voting for Arnold switched their votes to Tom, in each of the above stats, Tom would still lose. It would take the majority of Arnold's voters switching, to give Tom winning numbers. Since not all of Arnold's supporters are Conservative and some of them are Dems, it is impossible for Tom's stats to swell to winning proportions.

If anyone can prove that there are more Conservatives voting for Arnold, than I am claimiong, please do so.

180 posted on 10/04/2003 9:53:45 PM PDT by nopardons
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