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To: Hoverbug
That's a fair question, but it's one I don't know how to quantify. I think Tom has taken zero of Arnald's base support away, but there is still the question of whether McClintock will have taken enough conservative vote away to usher in Bustamante.

It is fair to make the opposite comment as well, but Arnold would have to give quite a bit more to McClintock for him to win.

Then there's the problem with Democrat crossover vote to Arnold. Would that go to Tom or back to a democrat? I think it would go to a democrat. If it went to a democrat, would Arnold be able to give McClintock enough to overcome that vote?

Polls about three to four weeks ago showed 17-19% being pulled from the Democrats to Arnold's campaign.
169 posted on 10/04/2003 7:58:17 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: DoughtyOne
DO,
I agree in that I haven't heard one person say, "Well, I really like Arnold, and he'd make a better governor, but I'm voting for Tom" while I have heard the opposite around here. I've also heard supossed conservatives around here say they would never vote for Tom, the only reason being he is too conservative.

A lot of the votes in Arnold's column are people who really want Tom. With 65% of the vote locked up between Tom and Arnold, Busty doesn't stand a chance in a 3 way race. (People are so pi$$ed he doesn't stand a chance is a two way either). Whatever the number, as long as it's a 3 way race, the crossover from Busty to Arnold is moot.

I think the only question now is will the results be
(1)Tom,
(2)Arnie,
(3)Busty

or

(1)Arnie,
(2)Tom,
(3)Busty.

I'm voting my concience. Always have been. But to those who want Tom but are voting for Arnie, I think they're making a mistake, especially now.

Hb



170 posted on 10/04/2003 8:30:19 PM PDT by Hoverbug
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