California: Fast-fading Bustamante has conservatives re-thinking Schwarzenegger support

California Public Policy Foundation Capitol Watch email | October 3, 2003

[John Jorsett]

Some conservative Republicans who say they believe state Sen. Tom McClintock would be a better governor than Arnold Schwarzenegger but who planned to vote for Schwarzenegger as their best hope of electing a Republican are switching to McClintock in light of recent polls indicating both GOP candidates will likely finish ahead of Cruz Bustamante. "If it is down to a two-man race," a GOP activist said, "my vote is for Tom. Schwarzenegger seemed to be the lesser of two evils compared to Bustamante, but that rationale disappears when Bustamante turns out to be the candidate that can't win."

McClintock, who has run ahead of Schwarzenegger among Independent voters, enjoys statewide favorable/unfavorable ratings much better than any other major candidate. GOP political observers say this factor, if it combines with a large-scale movement among Republicans who feel free now to "vote their consciences," could significantly increase McClin- tock's support by Tuesday.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Once ARnold gets into office he can get Bustemecha indicted for election fund fraud and then install Tom As lt gov.

and then play good cop bad cop with the senate and assembly.

I'd like to see Arnold throwing lawmakers out of windows if they don't cooperate.

[DoughtyOne]

The party is there to win elections. It's the only way the party can affect governance. The party can't help it if Tom couldn't get his numbers up. Perhaps their internals led them to believe from the get-go that Tom was unelectable for the top spot in California.

You can disagree with that all you want, but that doesn't necessarily prove that the CRP is filled with RINOs.

Tom is not electable. That's a simple sentence. It is true. 85% of the electorate have deemed Tom not to be the person they wish to vote for. I can't help that. The party can't help that. That is reality.

All along, I've asked you guys to look at reality. Instead you've been more than willing to label anyone in sight a RINO, if they dared focus on reality themselves.

If you don't want to face reality and do wish to label everone else, then please take note that the party has completely abandoned your core beliefs and move on.

You are convinced that democrats would vote for a man that disagrees with them on abortion, homosexual rights, guns, immigration, the environment and more. I am not convinced of that.

Does this mean I wouldn't like to have Tom in there? No. It doesn't mean that. What it means is that I simply do not see Tom winning a statewide top spot.

If Tom did there's another problem. Tom has had a hard time working within his own party. I am not convinced Tom could move the democrat controlled legislature to implement his ideas.

There are a bundle of problems with a Tom candidacy, victory and governance.

I am not a RINO. I am a realist. I am probably for better or worse a pretty good example of what the Republican party is at the moment. Is that good? I'm not saying it is. I am saying it's about all it can be.

You can't win elections and change the direction of the state with 15% of the vote. In a head to head with a democrat without a Schwarzenegger in there, Tom may have pulled 30-35%. The top spot isn't like the Controller's spot. Tom would not get the same type of vote.

I'm not trying to be mean here, but if you cannot live with this outlook in the Republican party, then you're probably in the wrong place.

The party is not going to formulate policy based on the 15-35 percenters. They have to be somewhat pragmatic or they will never hold power. If they never hold power, they are a dead party. Once again, it's a bitter reality.

[DoughtyOne]

With all due respect D1, it's too bad you can't point to a single agenda item that the Wilsonegger crowd has used to reach out to any McC supporters... I guess I would point to sticking a finger in the wind and then finally getting on board with the car tax repeal, parroting Tom's axing it the first day in office... but then the Team makes sure they don't give Tom any credit for his efforts.

In Schwarzenegger's first press conference he touched on why he would not raise taxes.  He touched on torte reform.  He touched on worker's comp reform.  He also touched on Prop 13 and repealing the increased car license fees.

If you heard that press conference or have read his comments about why he considers himself a Republican, I believe you'd find them inspiring.  I did.

I'm not going to defend some of Schwarzenegger's views of some of his personal actions in his life.

Whether I like it or not, the public has appearantly chosen Schwarzenegger to take over as governor.  By voting for Tom at this stage I would simple reduce Arnold's margin of victory.  I do not want to contribute to reducing that margin to the point that he may not win.

If people want to support Arnold, I believe he has given them reason.  If people want to support Tom, I'm sure they'll find Schwarzenegger less appealing on a number of levels.  Whether they are correct or now, I still do not believe they will achieve anything by placing their vote with Tom.  That's my thoughts on it.

[The Old Hoosier]

Don't forget that in local recalls, there's an historic precedent for a 15% dropoff between the number of people who vote in the first part and those who vote in the second part.

[Hoverbug]

Well, looks like we might be buying it. By your stated position, looks like ya better swith to Tom to keep busatmove from getting elected.

Hb

[Hoverbug]

So you'd rather put Busatmove in office than vote for Tom?

Hb

[Hoverbug]

Tom would have to fight the same battle for Senator that he has to here from the liberal side of the GOP. How many times have I heard from the Arnold folks that a conservative can't win statewide office, and now you offer a statewide office as inducement to get out?

You think Arnold will wave a magic wand and make him Senator?

Does the term "empty promise" mean anything to you?

If Tom can win as Senator, he can win as Governor.

Hb

[Hoverbug]

Manipulation? You want to talk manipulation?

Let's start with the phrase "Tom can't win."

Hb

[Hoverbug]

It's not McClintock that has turned off so many on Free Republic to McClintock.

It's his rabid, foul-mouthed, venom-spitting followers.

Even if you feel that way, it ain't his supporters you're voting for. If you like Tom, vote for him.

You base your support to a candidate on whether some of the candidate's supporters pi$$ed you off, and then call Tom's supporters rationality into question??

Hb

[Moonmad27]

This is what the Dems want. If Arnold is at, say 40, and Bustamecha is at 25, and Tom at 15, that's just what they want to decrease Arnold's numbers by telling people "oh, go ahead and vote for McClintock." Voila, like we've always said, the recall fails or Bustamecha wins. We're so close to winning this - if the McClintock voters join with us Arnold ones, it'll be 50-plus percent for the top Republican candidate. Can't understand why some people can't grasp that fact!

[fqued]

It appears that Arnold may well get over 50% regardless of what Tom or his 15% do.
The SurveyUSA poll that was out last night had figures like this:

39% - wasn't and still won't vote for Arnold
10% - was going to vote for Arnold but won't now
12% - wasn't going to vote for Arnold but now will
40% - was going to vote for Arnold and still will.

40% + 12% = 52%
LANDSLIDE, regardless of Tom's 15%

[Hoverbug]

How many of Arnie votes are from Tom supporters?

Hb

[deport]

In this pipe dream of what if..... where does the 17% that is never mentioned go? Which candidate or candidates will get them... He never takes that into account.....

[Consort]

Tom would have to fight the same battle for Senator that he has to here from the liberal side of the GOP.

And if he were the front runner, his skeletons would be outed instead of Arnolds. Where was Tom when the Liberals took over the state? He's been in elected office for twenty years.

How many times have I heard from the Arnold folks that a conservative can't win statewide office,...

Many Republicans believe that a moderate has a better chance at Governor at this time.

...and now you offer a statewide office as inducement to get out?

Get out? By staying in the race, McClintock balanced the opposition; two Republicans against two Democrats. In the battle between Liberals and Conservatives, Tom is the Conservative and Davis/Bustamente are the Liberals. This allowed Arnold to claim the vast middle ground where most of the votes are, IMO, and may have allowed a GOP win next Tuesday.

You think Arnold will wave a magic wand and make him Senator?

A Republican Governor would be a little more helpful to Tom than a Democrat would.

Does the term "empty promise" mean anything to you?

No.

If Tom can win as Senator, he can win as Governor.

Not necessarily, as you know. Independent voters are needed by both parties. Many of them would vote for a moderate rather than for a staunch Liberal that many of us despise or for a staunch Conservative that many of us admire, IMO.

[Lancey Howard]

But Tom can't win.

Yup, only a liberal can win in California, so if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

[EternalVigilance]

In Schwarzenegger's first press conference he touched on why he would not raise taxes. He touched on torte reform. He touched on worker's comp reform. He also touched on Prop 13 and repealing the increased car license fees.

How touching...

[deport]

How touching...

---

Yep groping is saved for the heavy stuff........

[Hoverbug]

Where was Tom when the Liberals took over the state? He's been in elected office for twenty years.

The state wasn't taken from Tom, it was taken from Pete Wilson, the current string puller for Arnie. Pete lost it on his watch as governor, not any single State Senator or Assemplyman.

Get out? By staying in the race, McClintock balanced the opposition; two Republicans against two Democrats. In the battle between Liberals and Conservatives, Tom is the Conservative and Davis/Bustamente are the Liberals. This allowed Arnold to claim the vast middle ground where most of the votes are, IMO, and may have allowed a GOP win next Tuesday.

Sorry, thought you were one of the folks calling for him to get out of the race now for a promise of a Senator's office later. And I agree with you that his staying in has been a good thing for the Republicans, even while being stabbed in the back and demonized by the very ones he was helping.

Tom will NEVER get an endorsement from the Sate GOP for anything while Wilson is here, and would have to fight the GOP as much in that race as he has here.

I think Tom would be much more effective for California as Governor being a conservative executive with veto power, rather than having his vote diluted in the U.S. Senate.

The dems have finally run the State into the ground, and there will NEVER be a better time than this to get a conservative in and show California that we don't want to poison their water, kill their elders, and eat children while we torture puppies.

Remember that old V-8 commercial? I'd hate to see a lot of conservative Arnie voters waking up on 8OCT, slapping their heads, and saying, "We coulda had McClintock!"

Hb

[EternalVigilance]

You said that, I didn't.

[Hoverbug]

Assemplyman = Assemblyman.


Hb