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Bush Support Sink in Arizona
Arizona Tribune ^
| 09-26-03
| Le Templar
Posted on 09/26/2003 11:58:03 AM PDT by riri
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1
posted on
09/26/2003 11:58:03 AM PDT
by
riri
To: harpseal; A. Pole
I did a search and surprisingly I didn't see this.
I think this story says quite a bit. 1. Arizona is still a pretty conservative state. Though, we get less so on a daily basis. And 2., I dont think we have been hit quite as hard as many states have, concerning the now supposeed ending recession and current job losses.
2
posted on
09/26/2003 12:00:48 PM PDT
by
riri
To: riri
The Arizona poll was sponsored by ASU's KAET-TV (Channel 8) and Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication. Not good news and probably not accurate, since anything with the name "Cronkite" attached to it has a leftist agenda.
3
posted on
09/26/2003 12:01:37 PM PDT
by
KC_Conspirator
(This space for rent)
To: KC_Conspirator
That's a very strange poll. You kinda have to read it twice.
4
posted on
09/26/2003 12:05:28 PM PDT
by
Sacajaweau
(God Bless Our Troops!!)
To: riri
It's such an ASTONISHING COINCIDENCE that every pollster seems to be reporting flagging support for the President at this precise point in time -- just a few days after the polling data that showed even registered Democrats were at a loss to name which Democrats were running for President. I'm thinking a few markers are being called in.
To: riri
We're all suckers for polls, but it's better to just kick back and relax. Today's polls are just as meaningful as the ones that showed Bush with a 90 percent approval: they're worthless.
The popular vote is going to shake out to be close, regardless. As '00 illustrated, it's the EC that counts.
6
posted on
09/26/2003 12:08:38 PM PDT
by
Mr. Bird
To: Sacajaweau
They admitted it was done on a weekend.
7
posted on
09/26/2003 12:10:10 PM PDT
by
LarryM
To: riri
The polls are returning to normal levels.
All signs are pointing to '04 as being another 50/50 type election.
To: riri; KC_Conspirator; Sacajaweau
Only 18 percent of Republicans said they would vote for someone else. But 72 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of independents said they didn't want Bush to have a second term. Okay. So according to this poll 82% of Pubbies, 51% of indies, and 28% of Dems can reasonably expect to vote for President Bush at this stage. The AZ SecState shows voter registration as of Jul 03 to be:
GOP - 916.2K
Dem - 782.4K
Lib - 14.9K
Oth - 499K
Based on these numbers, and assuming equal turnout among all groups, Bush could be expected to pull 82% of 916K (751K) plus 28% of 782K (219K) plus 51% of 514K (262K) for a total of 1,232K votes if all those polled actually voted.
Over 1.23 million presumed votes in a state with a total registration of 2.21 million votes. In 2000 Bush beat Gore and Nader's combined total by about 50K votes (781K to 730K). I don't really see where this poll shows trouble for President Bush.
9
posted on
09/26/2003 12:25:10 PM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: JennysCool; Mr. Bird; LarryM; comebacknewt
10
posted on
09/26/2003 12:29:58 PM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: All
To be more precise in Post #9, 781.6K votes out of 1,532K votes cast in AZ in 2000 =
51%. The presumed numbers of 1.23 mil out of 2.21 mil =
56%.
Editorials passed off as news, in my book.
11
posted on
09/26/2003 12:33:31 PM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: riri
Sometimes I think all of this constant poll taking adds to the drag-down of his numbers. When the easily influenced sheeple hear enough bad news polls, their mindset changes.
To: freeperfromnj
Hmmmm. Even more interesting. According to the Green Party website, voter registration for AZ in 2000 looked like this:
GOP - 942K
Dem - 831K
Lib - 12.6K
Oth - 387K
So the Libs and indies have increased slightly. The GOP has lost 26K registered voters, while the Dems have lost nearly 50K voters - declining at a 2:1 ratio.
Tell me again how this poll shows him in trouble? :-)
13
posted on
09/26/2003 12:40:35 PM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: Coop
That is very good analysis and makes the point clear that this poll is not very accurate.
To: riri
I'm not surprised by this poll. George W. lost the popular vote to a moron with gender issues. The job outlook has not improved and there seems to be no evidence of WMD's in Iraq.
The only thing encouraging about this poll is that Forty-four percent said they would prefer someone else. That someone else hasn't entered the race as of yet. If things don't get better soon... she might.
15
posted on
09/26/2003 12:41:55 PM PDT
by
johnny7
(“SHE'S NOT GONNA RUN FOR SENATOR!” -Rush Limbaugh)
To: johnny7
That someone else hasn't entered the race as of yet. If things don't get better soon... she might. She doesn't worry me in the red states.
To: freeperfromnj
But they'll all be Red states if she wins, as in Communist!
17
posted on
09/26/2003 1:02:21 PM PDT
by
Galtoid
To: riri
I'll actually vote for him this time around.
To: Galtoid
LOL
To: riri
Though the economy and job losses most certainly have something to do with Bush's declining support in AZ (and many other states) what is being lost on most here is that AZ is transitioning into a Democratic state because of illegal immigration. It's no different in that regard than CA except it is a few years behind.
Apparently many have forgotten that up until the mid-90s AZ was one of the most reliable states for the GOP across the board. Now, AZ has a democratic governor and Bush barely won the state in 2000.
Demographics is destiny and the trends driven by illegal immigration certainly do not bode well for the Republican Party--especially conservatism in AZ or in any other state that is experiencing a mass influx of Illegal Aliens.
When is the Stupid Party going to Wake Up?
20
posted on
09/26/2003 1:12:39 PM PDT
by
WRhine
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