“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[CyberAnt]

"And if my Grandmother had wheels, she would be a bicycle"

But .. that's only true in New Jersey!!

[CyberAnt]

""If only" works if"

But .. that's only true in Pennsylvania!!

[CyberAnt]

"after going a bit too far out on a limb"

And .. that only happens in FLORIDA.

[CyberAnt]

"deliver a win to Bustamonte on a silver platter"

Hmmmm? .. I think that's only possible in NORTH CAROLINA.

[CyberAnt]

"McClintock ... the money the Democrats are siphoning over to him via the corrupt Indian tribe gambling money"

Sorry .. that could only be possible in the country of CHILE!!

[CyberAnt]

"It is about celebrity"

And .. since there are so many celebrities in NORTH DAKOTA ..???

[CyberAnt]

"So the best I can support"

Hmmmm? I'm sure that will come in handy in MICHIGAN!!

[CyberAnt]

"I have to accept something lesser"

Well .. maybe that works in FLORIDA!

[CyberAnt]

"they don't want to see McClintock win"

Well .. hope you have better luck with "they" in OHIO!!

[novice2]

>>Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions (sic) or does Schwarzenegger?<<
Many, if not most, of us who will NEVER!!!!!!!!! vote for McClintock. We consider him a bigtime Judas, a despicable man, who has conspired with the Dems because of pettiness and a nursed grudge.
Let's also face the fact that you folks on the McClintock (Pat Buchannan) side on this forum will never bring yourself around to voting for Arnold, even if McClintock pulled out.
That means that the California public outside this forum will make up their minds in the last two weeks.
But don't ever run this guy against Boxer or Feinstein and expect us to forget what he has done this year.

[novice2]

>>Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions (sic) or does Schwarzenegger?<<
Many, if not most, of us who will NEVER!!!!!!!!! vote for McClintock. We consider him a bigtime Judas, a despicable man, who has conspired with the Dems because of pettiness and a nursed grudge.
Let's also face the fact that you folks on the McClintock (Pat Buchannan) side on this forum will never bring yourself around to voting for Arnold, even if McClintock pulled out.
That means that the California public outside this forum will make up their minds in the last two weeks.
But don't ever run this guy against Boxer or Feinstein and expect us to forget what he has done this year.

[CyberAnt]

"McClintock ... other than he can't win"

Hmmmm? I don't think that matters unless he runs in TEXAS!

[CyberAnt]

"I like McClintock too, or did until he put his ego in front of his principles"

And .. I realize this is a primary concern in VIRGINIA!!

[68 grunt]

"I like McClintock too, or did until he put his ego in front of his principles"

I concur! It is a primary concern for me! Go Rennaisance - Vote Schwzenegger

[XJarhead]

Uh, because it is a ridiculous hypothetical at best. People here have little tolerance for absurd propositions.

A "silent swing" obviously is a fantasy. What is not is the general proposition that this is the best chance of electing a conservative in California. It's the best argument for voting for McClintock, even if it isn't enough in the end to be persuasive.

Many others are hostile towards those who will ensure that RAT control of Californica's statehouse continues. That is the certain result of conservatives sticking with Mc.

It's the nastiness, the "hostility", that is misplaced. The initial post on this thread may have been fanciful, but it wasn't obnoxious, didn't attack anyone personally, and didn't even attack Arnold. Too many people have demonized people on the other side. The McClintock supporters may be misguided or wrong, but in general, they are not your philosophical opponents. It's too bad things have sunk to this level here.

Arnold is the only Republican who would draw support from non-Republicans...

Generally, that's true. Which is precisely what could have given McClintock a chance.

...and none can win without that support.

That's where you're wrong. A conservative who can't get non-Republican support can win if Dems and Indies give a lot of support to Arnold. McClintock can only win in a three way race where someone takes votes away from the Dem, and that's what we have here.

The real problem that the McClintock supporters won't admit is that their guy just isn't a great candidate. He's plenty conservative, but he lacks the charisma that might have convinced more Republicans in the state that he could win. That's a reality that can't be changed no matter how right he may be on the issues, and no matter whether its theoretically possible for a conservative to win.

[chilepepper]

You obviously don't know Chile very well... what, you think its just like southern mexico right? south america is just one big blur to you, eh? "south of the border", all like tijuana, eh? you should probably eat more fish -- they say that does wonders for stupidity...

[The Old Hoosier]

Arnold Schwarzenegger - Conservative Republican for Governor of California

This is self-parody at its best.

[68 grunt]

Did you like that one? Here my favorite;

Vote Republican Rennaisance - Vote Schwzenegger

Its going to be great, a new era of enlightenment, of tolerance and of unity.

[68 grunt]

I've been to Santiago. It is not Mexico! I didn't have much time in the city, but I did enjoy.

[southernnorthcarolina]

CyberAnt, I gather from your response to me and others that you believe the California Governorship is or should be of interest only to Californians. That's understandable. A California Senator affects us all, but not so a California Governor -- at least directly.

Still, the indirect consequences on the rest of us may be substantial. First, and most obviously, California has been a breeding ground for politicians of national import. Those of us in the "other 49" have, I think, a legitinmate interest in the career paths of California politicians from that standpoint. Somewhat more subtley, it is a fact (however lamentable) that California is a trendsetter. Elect a Governor who is pro-abortion, anti-Second Amendment rights, anti-tax cut, etc., and the influence will, at least to some extent, tend to spread to the east.

So I make no apologies for injecting my opinion into the electoral affairs of a state 3,000 miles to my west. The ouster of Governor Davis, and the defeat of Bustamonte, while admittedly not as immediately important to us in North Carolina as they are to you in California, are nonetheless of legitimate interest. And your opinions, and those of all FReepers, on elections in North Carolina are welcome, as well.