“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[SteveH]

All good points, except that I think the anti-Simon sentiment expressed is a bit more emotional than logical. He failed not because he was a social conservative, but because as a political newbie he strayed off point during the off-the-cuff remarks to reporters about the "campaign funds" photo. He displayed his naiivete and willingness to believe an unproven conjecture and attempt to use it to his benefit, accusing Davis of doing something Davis easily proved was false. Remember? Or you think that had nothing to do with it at all? I thought you were a realist.

As to the demographic trend, I hear you there. In that sense, even Arnold (presuming he is some kind of conservative under the skin) at best only a finger in a dike holding off the inevitable flood. I thought Arnold has drifted towards illegal immigrant amnesty (round 2?) and does not seem to want to take on SB60 head-on, so again, why the fervent devotion to a guy who really doesn't seem to get it anyway, when it would count?

[68 grunt]

The democrats are emptying their closets to throw shoes at Arnie. You'd throw any shoe you could find, eagerly. You are being counter-productive, and Arnold is the Republican Man in California.

Arnold Schwarzenegger - Conservative Republican for Governor of California

[68 grunt]

That is a ridiculous premise. Arnold is gonna rip you boy up. He's going to dwarf all the candidates, and he will stand out in excellence. You're boy will be humiliated. Good, bring it on!

[EllaMinnow]

Bravo, Owen. Well said.

[68 grunt]

Of course, if you actually prefer Schwarzenegger's liberalism, then by all means continue to support him.

I do, I do, and I will, I will.

[68 grunt]

Come on, tell us again how you haven't made a choice, then slam Arnie's camp again.

[68 grunt]

Awwww, you've felt that all along, just admit it! Quite trying to be coy, it ain't working.

[jmc813]

Arnold is more liberal and tolerant on the social issues! And, I thank the good Lord for it!

You prefer someone to be a gun-grabber?

[tallhappy]

If any voters should be thinking about switching are the McClintock voters switching over to Arnold, to make sure Bustamante won't win.

McC has HALF the votes that Arnold has.

But they aren't going to switch.

That is the reality to also face.

If you want consolidation, get conservatives to vote for McClintock.

I am well aware that not voting for Schwarzenegger may put Bustamante in the Governors office.

Davis is already there. The legislature is already dems. It wouldn't change much.

Are you for Schwarzenegger or for a Republican winning?

[68 grunt]

I am intellectually honest and open.

You protest too much!

[Paulus Invictus]

Tom is toast no matter what and if he stays in, Bustamante wins. Ahnold and CA lose. Maybe that's what needs to happen. Let the evil RATS run the State into the San Andreas Fault. Then they can have the BIG ONE.

But wait! The Ninth Circus has not yet given the RATS the go-ahead to postpone the whole recall thing until march 04. If that happens, and it surely will, then the confusion at the ballot boxes in 04 will be worse than anything the Recall vote would have loaded onto the confused and brain-dead CA voters.

[kingu]

As to the demographic trend, I hear you there. In that sense, even Arnold (presuming he is some kind of conservative under the skin) at best only a finger in a dike holding off the inevitable flood. I thought Arnold has drifted towards illegal immigrant amnesty (round 2?) and does not seem to want to take on SB60 head-on, so again, why the fervent devotion to a guy who really doesn't seem to get it anyway, when it would count?

A finger is better than blowing up the dam. What are the Dems going to offer in 2006 to their special interests when taxes have been raised through the roof? The 55% rule will pass when it comes onto the ballot, because it will be pitched as if it were punishing legislators for not getting the budget done on time.

Arnold has demonstrated that he's willing to listen, consult with, and trust Republican leadership. Tom has demonstrated that he's willing to go against the leadership throughout his political career. RATs control the legislature, but that can change next year. A hard line Republican won't change that - the paralasys of this past summer will multiply if Tom possibly won. But if the voters believe that they have started a revolution, they'll look at their life long RATs and perhaps go with someone else.

I'm willing to give up a lot to remove the campaign slogan, "Send me to Sacramento to fight against Tom and his Right Wing cronnies," from the Democrat party.

[68 grunt]

The "McClintock" faction is discrediting the Right throughout all of American politics, right now

You're right on the money! The disruptors are making hay while the sun shines!

[tallhappy]

Arnold has demonstrated that he's willing to listen, consult with, and trust Republican leadership. Tom has demonstrated that he's willing to go against the leadership

Who are you referring to as Republican leadership?

[68 grunt]

He is not a gun-grabber, so your argument is disengenious.

[68 grunt]

'Are you for Schwarzenegger or for a Republican winning?'

I'm for Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger winning!

[jmc813]

He is not a gun-grabber, so your argument is disengenious.

As far as I'm concerned, those who support the AWB and Brady are in fact gun-grabbers, but I do realize that it's a subjective term. Allow me to rephrase. On the gun issue alone, who is better, Arnold or Tom?

[68 grunt]

In California? Arnie, by a long shot! But only if we want to win. If AS were to come out hard against abortion or gun-control, or for the right wing wackoos, he would lose all the crossover voters, just like that, poof! McX can't get elected, regardless of the faulty premise, numbers and algorhythm proported in this thread.

[jmc813]

In California? Arnie, by a long shot! But only if we want to win.

I suppose that is where we differ. There are a few "litmus test" issues for me. Guns are one of them.

[FairOpinion]

"If you vote to lose, you elect the opposition -- which is not particularly different from voting explicitly for the opposition."

===

Exactly. As you said, what good is "purity" if you always lose. If you want to survive, you have to adapt to new circumstance, or become extinct. I guess the McClintockites prefer the dinosaur as the GOP symbol, they prefer to have it go extinct and have one party: the Socialist Democrat party.

What brillian strategy, don't you think? (/sarcasm)