“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[Poohbah]

First mistake: assumes that the LA Slimes poll is accurate. They admit to overloading it with "social conservatives" by about 10%.

Second mistake: assumes that everyone makes the perfect decision. This issue is related to the Prisoner's Dillemma. Assumes perfect communication within conservative community (not demonstrated to date) and will not reject McClintock for various reasons (including demonstrated lack of good judgement or good character, take your choice if which).

In short, assumes that the conservative movement will magically behave like the Borg Collective, where all conservatives will submerge their individuality.

This is actually an interesting revelation of how McClintock's supporters view themselves, view conservatism, and what their ideal society would be like.

It's interesting to see how many "conservatives" await their man on horseback...one who looks and acts suspiciously like Mikhail Suslov.

[tallhappy]

Interesting.

My take is this is exactly what is happening to conservatives in the Schwarzenegger candidacy.

[tallhappy]

First mistake: assumes that the LA Slimes poll is accurate.

The same dynamic applies to every poll. Even more the polls that show Schwarzenegger with a lead -- ie pols you "like."

The key is not Schwarzenegger's numbers but Bustamante's low numbers.

The message is that Schwarzenegger is not going to win. McClintock's voters will not switch to him.

If conservatives want Cruz to lose, they need to switch from supporting Schwarzenegger. It is that simple. The numbers are there in any poll.

Do I think this will happen? No.

But it is fair warning. Do not blame McClintock when Bustamante wins.

Intransigence cuts both ways.

[South40]

It's because even though in their views they identify with McClintock, they've been fooled into listening to people like you. "ARNOLD CAN WIN." Well, he won't. The other shoe is about to drop on muscle-head.

I've never said Arnold can win. I've said he stands the best chance of defeating bustamante because he does.

Contrast that to Mr. DOUBLE DIGITS BEHIND who has no chance and you'll see why I, and many others plan to vote for him.

A vote for Mcclintock is a vote for bustamante.

[SteveH]

Good points all, except possibly for the part about Arnold bribing Democrats with sops. That sounds a bit too much like appeasing Ds by capitulation. But whatever... thanks...

[kingu]

It's different. Simon demonstrated in 2002 that we could take California if we had the right candidate with the right message. Unfortunately Simon was the wrong candidate (too inexperienced) with the right message. Even then, he got very close.

Al Gore has a better chance of winning the 2000 election via court fiat right now than Tom has of winning the governor's seat in two weeks. Ignore the calls of baby steps, of whatever Arnold's positions are, and whatnot. If Davis defeats the recall or if Bustamante wins, that's it. Shows over. There will never be another Republican governor of the state of California.

Doomsday fertilizer? Perhaps. When Simon was campaigning and a boat load of us Republicans held our noses and voted for him, we did it under protest. We listened to the anti-RINO camp and we gave to Simon's campaign, even putting bumper stickers on our car. What did we get? Davis, the most hated governor in the history of polling.

It is going to be legal for immigrant criminals to get driver's licenses using a form that has a simple check off for registering to vote. It is now illegal to fire a cross-dresser. Virtually every civil benefit of marriage is now available to gays. Explicit sex-education is going to be in our classrooms. The state finances are bankrupt. Worker's compensation insurance is 50% higher. Republicans are moving out of the state in droves, and if this election goes poorly, many more will follow before 2006 comes around.

We've tried it with the social conservative, and LOST. We've lost on each and every supposed goal of a social conservative. We've lost on each and every goal of a fiscal conservative. We've lost on any measure of any form of conservative viewpoint because we followed the call of the conservative cause and voted for Simon.

Our state is a hell hole because we didn't get rid of Davis ten months ago, and I think it's only fair to demand that social conservatives hold THEIR collective noses and vote for Arnold. We tried it your way ten months ago, LOST, and have kept losing ever since. Toss Tom up on the shelf and VOTE REPUBLICAN, and vote for a winner...

[FairOpinion]

"A switch can put McClintock over the top. "

===
Which is nothing more than fantasy.

IF 5 % more had voted for Simon, he would have won, too. But they didn't.

If McC stays in the race, I predict around 12% tops for him, maybe 8-10%.

Bustamante may beat Arnold by 3%.

Congratulations! Your willing to face reality and act accordingly will give us Bustamante. :(

[FairOpinion]

I meant your (pl.) UNWILLINGNESS to face reality and act accordingly will give us Bustamante.

If any voters should be thinking about switching are the McClintock voters switching over to Arnold, to make sure Bustamante won't win.

McC has HALF the votes that Arnold has.

[68 grunt]

Fuselage is surface.

[68 grunt]

Schwarzenegger!

[68 grunt]

And you can count me, and my ilk, right out! The onliest switch I'll make is to vote no on the recall if McX succeeds in screwing up the republican victory.

[68 grunt]

The results will be 'stealthy', too.

[68 grunt]

I do! I got it for graduating from a military academy. Rather proud of the gaudy thing, myself!

[Owen]

So now the theory is a vote for McClintock prevents a GOP victory and keeps the GOP pure, because a victory for a GOP moderate risks dilution of purity.

What good is purity if you always lose? The country is not what it was 30 years ago. There have been huge immigration impacts on the voting base. There has been a swing in demographics regardless of immigration because various ethnicities have growth rates far exceeding whites.

You simply have to accept reality. You can't make liberal voters vote against their philosophy. You can't. The most that will happen in that regard does not differ at all from our own debate here. They will embrace a left wing centrist/moderate rather than lose to a Republican. They will do it even though they prefer the left wing extremist. They Have Learned From Their Nader Mistake. In this recall, we are about to make our Nader Mistake.

If you vote to lose, you elect the opposition -- which is not particularly different from voting explicitly for the opposition. A Schwarzenegger administration will be staffed by Republicans. A Bustamonte administration will be staffed by Democrats. Which administration do you think will be least liberal? It's not the head of the ticket that defines things. It is the pollsters and the staffers. You're voting for them as much as the guy on the ticket. If you keep chest beating and declaring yourselves ideologically pure, you will be proudly writing checks to send to Democrats at tax time for them to spend on their priorities.

What sense does this make?

[68 grunt]

This is my experience, also. Plus, these folks are getting more and more agitated, at McX and at the rightwing wackoos. They use ridicule as their tool, and all they have to do with McX is point and laugh.

[68 grunt]

I'll say it! Arnold is more liberal and tolerant on the social issues! And, I thank the good Lord for it!

[68 grunt]

Good picture of the future First Dame of California!

[68 grunt]

He didn't call you stupid nor the enemy. He said 'only idiots and those who want to see bustamecha win ...', and these are comments with which I agree.

[68 grunt]

Pot, kettle, black!

[jmc813]

but after McC took the Indian gambling donations

Are you disappointed with President Bush taking donations from the gaming industry in 2000?

It's often said that Vice President Al Gore is the "pro-gaming" presidential candidate. If that's the case, many gaming industry executives aren't buying it. Through Oct. 1, gaming executives gave more than three times as much to Gore's rival, Texas Gov. George W. Bush -- $118,200 for Bush, $36,000 for Gore. Bush's donors included some of the most powerful names in the Nevada gaming industry, including Mandalay Resort Group Chairman and Chief Executive Michael Ensign, MGM MIRAGE Chairman Terry Lanni, International Game Technology Chairman and CEO Charles Mathewson and Desert Inn owner Steve Wynn.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/gaming/2000/nov/03/510989252.html