“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[tallhappy]

But to hope that a majority of another's support will change their minds in a period of two or three weeks just doesn't sound to me like a realistic hope.

Realistic is not the same thing as possible.

The numbers are there. Tom can win.

Is it realistic?...

Depends...

[tallhappy]

Wasn't talking about values.

I was.

Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?

[AmishDude]

What makes you think that Bustamante will get less than 40%? Despite the polls, it's impossible for a Democrat to actually get vote totals as low as his. When push comes to shove, the RATs will pull the RAT lever.

[Registered]

Is it realistic?

No, it isn't realistic.

[NittanyLion]

He is *NOT* a Republican, since in order to belong to a party you need to become part of a team, and McClintock is *NOT* a team player.

A quick review for the more dimwitted among us:

1. McClintock has served the CA GOP for 20 years, while Arnold is a newcomer to the scene.
2. McClintock was in this race first, while Arnold joined late in the game.
3. McClintock's views reflect the GOP platform (remember that old thing?), while Arnold's most assuredly do not.

[tallhappy]

Another dynamic may be that if McClintock started polling well and beating Arnold, some of Arnold's other support -- from Dems and centrists -- may go to Bustamonte

I agree. That's why I called it the "silent surprise".

It's almost a stealth campaign.

[Sabertooth]

If McClintock can't win a majority of FReepers...

False premise. This is like Democrats claims that Bush didn't win Florida.

Polls close. Polls end. Counting and recounting stops.

I'll concede that Free Republic polls are unscientific, but McClintock has won every one of them thus far.

He did even better in the one poll where the results for California Freepers were presented...

After the debate who do you support for Governor of California?

Results as of Sept 9, 2003 10:00 pm PDT using the state designation on the FR profile pages to breakout California totals:

	California	Unknown	Total
McClintock	174	144	789
Schwarzenegger	89	143	612
Other	2	16	40
Undecided	7	15	88

Free Republic California Gubernatorial Poll

The September 9th California Freeper totals...

McClintock 174 = 64%

Arnold 89 = 33%

[gridlock]

Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?

I don't vote in California, so my values and opinions don't matter in this fight. But if I did, I would vote for Schwarzenegger.

It's not so much a matter of who I want to be Governor of California next year. Whoever is Governor next year will be inheriting a basket case, with a mandate that will make Bush's narrow victory look like election by acclamation. McClintock would be torn apart in this environment, and would be the only Republican elected Governor of California for a generation.

Schwarzenegger, OTOH, will be forgiven his failures and can get away (rightly) with blaming his predecessor, the Legislature, and everybody else in Sacramento for the problem. He can succeed in moving the center of the debate slightly to the right. Then in a few years, maybe a "true" Republican in the McClintock mold would have a chance to win over the electorate.

Just IMHO. Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger is acceptable to me. But if I got to select the California Governor all by myself, I would choose Schwarzenegger because of all the other things, including the goodwill of the voters, that he brings to the party.

[Afronaut]

How wrong you are, but that's nothing new. Do you have a Big Blue Ring also?

[tallhappy]

Just one teeny little problem - much of Arnold's support is crossover Democrats who will never, no never, vote for McClintock.

Yes.

That is why this is feasible. It keeps Bustamante's numbers low. It is not a problem it is what makes this possible.

[george wythe]

When Californians are given the choice between Bustamante and McClintock, they choose Bustamante.

For example, consider this pollreleased September 9, 2003. The poll was conducted by Baselice & Associates, Inc., September 1-4, 2003 among 1,005 likely voters. According to the poll commissioned by California Chamber of Commerce:

If both Ueberroth and McClintock drop out, Schwarzenegger will win over Bustamante.

If both Schwarzenegger and McClintock drop out, Ueberroth will tie with Bustamante.

If both Schwarzenegger and Ueberroth drop out, McClintock will lose to Bustamante.

California Chamber of Commerce

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall
relection for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices) 

49% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican
42% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
6%   Undecided / refused (vol)
__________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)

43% Peter Ueberroth, Republican
43% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
4%  Would not vote (vol)
9%  Undecided / refused (vol)
_________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)
 
41% Tom McClintock, Republican
47% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
1%  Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
8%  Undecided / refused (vol)

[Republic Rocker]

Way too Tall Happy!

Thinking that 60% of the Arnold supporters would switch votes at the zero hour is hopeless. You would need more conviction prior to that.

It seems that you are also underestimating the Arnold voter as if they are all false chad pushers. You need to reconsider that analogy.

Many of Arnold's support comes from the right that finds itself more balanced on social issues. And all this "IF you do not represent the hard right you are not truely a republican" is crap and is dividing the party in my opinion.

Its people like you that will once again cause us to divide and get Mecha Man elected.

And I will hold the likes of you responsible Happy Tall one....

[Registered]

I'll concede that Free Republic polls are unscientific, but McClintock has won every one of them thus far.

Not only unscientific, but they do not even in the slightest reflect the voting demographics of California.

[AmishDude]

Your third argument is fine, but your others are silly:

McClintock has served the CA GOP for 20 years, while Arnold is a newcomer to the scene.

Arnold has been a professed Republican for decades. No, he has not been an elected politician, but he has expressed his preference in circumstances when it would have been far easier to claim to be a Democrat or not to say anything. He hasn't been an elected official or "served" like McClintock, but don't make it sound like he joined the GOP last week.

McClintock was in this race first, while Arnold joined late in the game.

This isn't fair either. It was only a couple of days. It's not like Arnold was pulling a Wesley Clark.

[chilepepper]

so, the goal is to feel comfortable with ones beliefs? how egotistical can you get?

i'm sure the followers of Radomiro Tomic here in Chile had twenty years to congratulate themselves on how purely they followed their "beliefs" when they kept the honest centrist Allesandri from winning and split off enough votes to throw the Chilean election to the Marxist Allende. The wounds have still not healed from their "purity of beliefs"

actually, i put my "feelings" in second place. i am more interested in protecting California from the Aztlan movement, and if this means holding my nose while i vote for Ahnold, so be it.

McClintock is a second rate state senator who has allowed himself to be manipulated by America's enemies. This makes him my enemy as well.

Only stupid people allow themselves to be manipulated...

[BigBobber]

My middle of the road co-workers are calling October 7th "Arnold Day". There is no way these folks will vote for McClintock. Many have said they will vote No on recall if it looks like Busta-mencha will win. McClintock is not even on their radar screen.

[Sabertooth]

Not only unscientific, but they do not even in the slightest reflect the voting demographics of California.

Agreed, my point was solely to the false premise "If McClintock can't win a majority of FReepers."

[nina0113]

It's not going to happen. Your choices are Schwartzenegger or Bustamante.

For years, I voted Libertarian because I believed that I should vote the impossible principle over the possible victory. Bush was the first Republican vote I'd cast since 1980. Even a heel of a loaf is better than no bread at all.