Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But Tom cant win.
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems wont vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers dont quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesnt win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldnt be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesnt apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isnt a normal election and Bustamante isnt pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesnt have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldnt apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamantes support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzeneggers to shake the world with their silent surprise.
Realistic is not the same thing as possible.
The numbers are there. Tom can win.
Is it realistic?...
Depends...
I was.
Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?
A quick review for the more dimwitted among us:
1. McClintock has served the CA GOP for 20 years, while Arnold is a newcomer to the scene.
2. McClintock was in this race first, while Arnold joined late in the game.
3. McClintock's views reflect the GOP platform (remember that old thing?), while Arnold's most assuredly do not.
I agree. That's why I called it the "silent surprise".
It's almost a stealth campaign.
If McClintock can't win a majority of FReepers...
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I don't vote in California, so my values and opinions don't matter in this fight. But if I did, I would vote for Schwarzenegger.
It's not so much a matter of who I want to be Governor of California next year. Whoever is Governor next year will be inheriting a basket case, with a mandate that will make Bush's narrow victory look like election by acclamation. McClintock would be torn apart in this environment, and would be the only Republican elected Governor of California for a generation.
Schwarzenegger, OTOH, will be forgiven his failures and can get away (rightly) with blaming his predecessor, the Legislature, and everybody else in Sacramento for the problem. He can succeed in moving the center of the debate slightly to the right. Then in a few years, maybe a "true" Republican in the McClintock mold would have a chance to win over the electorate.
Just IMHO. Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger is acceptable to me. But if I got to select the California Governor all by myself, I would choose Schwarzenegger because of all the other things, including the goodwill of the voters, that he brings to the party.
Yes.
That is why this is feasible. It keeps Bustamante's numbers low. It is not a problem it is what makes this possible.
For example, consider this pollreleased September 9, 2003. The poll was conducted by Baselice & Associates, Inc., September 1-4, 2003 among 1,005 likely voters. According to the poll commissioned by California Chamber of Commerce:
If both Ueberroth and McClintock drop out, Schwarzenegger will win over Bustamante.If both Schwarzenegger and McClintock drop out, Ueberroth will tie with Bustamante.
If both Schwarzenegger and Ueberroth drop out, McClintock will lose to Bustamante.
California Chamber of CommerceFor which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall relection for Governor was just between the following two candidates? (Randomize choices) 49% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican 42% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat * Other names (vol) 3% Would not vote (vol) 6% Undecided / refused (vol) __________________________________________________________________________ For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall election for Governor was just between the following two candidates? (Randomize choices) 43% Peter Ueberroth, Republican 43% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat * Other names (vol) 4% Would not vote (vol) 9% Undecided / refused (vol) _________________________________________________________________________ For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall election for Governor was just between the following two candidates? (Randomize choices) 41% Tom McClintock, Republican 47% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat 1% Other names (vol) 3% Would not vote (vol) 8% Undecided / refused (vol)
McClintock has served the CA GOP for 20 years, while Arnold is a newcomer to the scene.
Arnold has been a professed Republican for decades. No, he has not been an elected politician, but he has expressed his preference in circumstances when it would have been far easier to claim to be a Democrat or not to say anything. He hasn't been an elected official or "served" like McClintock, but don't make it sound like he joined the GOP last week.
McClintock was in this race first, while Arnold joined late in the game.
This isn't fair either. It was only a couple of days. It's not like Arnold was pulling a Wesley Clark.
i'm sure the followers of Radomiro Tomic here in Chile had twenty years to congratulate themselves on how purely they followed their "beliefs" when they kept the honest centrist Allesandri from winning and split off enough votes to throw the Chilean election to the Marxist Allende. The wounds have still not healed from their "purity of beliefs"
actually, i put my "feelings" in second place. i am more interested in protecting California from the Aztlan movement, and if this means holding my nose while i vote for Ahnold, so be it.
McClintock is a second rate state senator who has allowed himself to be manipulated by America's enemies. This makes him my enemy as well.
Only stupid people allow themselves to be manipulated...
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