Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.
I don't know how long ago you lived in Calif. but things do drift-- slowly but surely. You seem to harbor resentment about principled conservatives in California, apparently for what you believe principled conservatives to be responsible for in Oklahoma.
It's different. Simon demonstrated in 2002 that we could take California if we had the right candidate with the right message. Unfortunately Simon was the wrong candidate (too inexperienced) with the right message. Even then, he got very close.
A big problem with Arnold is inexperience. Why don't Arnold supporters, especially out of state Arnold supporters, see that? He is vulnerable in so many ways. The election is by no means in the bag, even if every single McClintock supporter voted for Arnold as of this moment.
Principle means you can't build skyscrapers on quicksand. Arnold seems willing to say just about anything to hold his lead. He's starting to break up politically. He did this himself by choosing to chase the elusive left wing vote. In doing so, he is alienating an increasing number of his original base.
I've seen a lot of posts from you and a lot of generalisms. Feel free to start talking specifics (specifics to California, that is). If you say you can do it because you once lived in Calif. or have rental prop. in Calif., let's see you do it.
I don't critique your position simply because you are out of state. But I might pick on your position because you are out of state and out of touch, with the emphasis on out of touch.
I won't expect much of an answer, so you have a nice day too.
Those folks are going to win unless those of us opposed to Leftism resist them successfully. It is not like "playing our cards right" but more like "war to the knife."
There is too much of a Democratic constituency in California to elect McClintock. Period. If I am wrong about this, either McClintock would turn his coat (likeliest result) or the Left will make such an uproar that the Feds will have to send troops. Schwartzenegger can avoid that fate.
By the way, I see Schwartzenegger as much more honest than McClintock. McClintock is jiving you guys. Telling people what they want to hear is the oldest trick in the book.
Technically, he represents T.O., but he does not live there any longer. I would imagine at a base level, he must have an office or PO box.
Seems like he's really settled down in Sac; his wife works as an admin asst for their church in Elk Grove.
My neighbor KellynLA likes to give Sanchez a hard time for living in LA and representing Santa Ana, but his boy is pulling the same stunt.
Seems to me that if you're going to run as a 'purist' you should probably have all your ducks in a row. The more you scratch below the surface, the more you see just how much McC is wed to the entire political infrastructure.
He's just clever enough to position and package himself as the champion of the little guy, all the while being just as dependent on dysfunctional CA politics as any Dem. After all, if there ain't a problem, who's gonna champion change? (Even if you've never achieved a damn thing in over 20 years in office.)
Simon was the worst choice due to inexperience and the phony lawsuits against him which, despite their being phony, were exploited by the dem smear team.
What I find interesting now is many Simon supporters now say only Schwarzenegger can win and strongly back him.
How so?
"McClintock's economic policy" indeed. Most of the electorate in California is dependent on the government's teats. And they will vote themselves out of "their" jobs, free medical care, and fantastic retirement benefits? Be serious.
I think you're exaggerating your own position (if not, we're all doomed anyway because it's already converted to communism).
BTW I would not disagree that there is excessive reliance on state makework jobs for employment here. But what do you suggest to do about it, from a ballot box perspective?
But it should not be construed as preferring Bustamante over Schwarzenegger. Preferring a Bustamante victory vs a Schwarzenegger victory is slightly different.
My comment is a Bustamante victory would be less detrimental to the state and the nation and the Republican party in the long run than a Schwarzenegger win.
I would never vote for Bustamante or encourage anyone to vote for him.
I have always voted Republican since I had my eyes open. The one exception was Huffington vs Feinstein in 1992. I could not vote for Huffington. I didn't vote for Feinstein. I threw my vote away on a third party candidate I can't even remember.
Events since, I think, have validated my decision.
I agree that too many Republicans are too purist here. They even did this to Matt Fong. He could have won but they spread word he was pro-abortion.
Yes, to elect someone more conservative than Davis and beat him.
I am not a purist.
Also, many of the same people here who are anti-Schwarzenegger have been as strongly anti-Riordan or even anti-Wilson. I never agreed with them.
Schwarzenegger is much more left than either of those. Wilson in fact held some very strong core conservative principles.
In the primary I voted for Bill Jones. He had electoral experience and was more conservative than Rirodan. I think he could have won (but who knows).
It does not impact on my opinion of Schwarzenegger which is the issue.
If McClintock were ate 5%, I'd agree.
It is all about the numbers.
Do the math. A switch can put McClintock over the top.
If it were Schwarzenegger 39, Bustamante 41 and McClintock at 5%, you'd be correct.
But, if you see it that way, I will be voting by proxy for Bustamante in your eyes.
Don't complain.
At this point, logical minded souls consider withdrawing from the debate. AS is the issue? I thought recalling Davis and electing a Rep were the issues. Oh never mind.
Come now. You can be so rational. Your analysis is excellent and my ideas here are based on similar assessment on my part.
Schwarzenegger is not acceptable to me as a Republican representative.
So this makes the only choice McClintock despite his shortcomings.
I agree electing a Rep is an overriding concern. But there are limits to everything and Schwarzenmegger crosses that line for me and many others.
You don't have to agree, just understand that Schwarzenegger has to win or lose it himself and cannot count on McClintock supporters or those who don't support Schwarzenegger (I am the latter, not the former) to save him.
On a strategic level the conflict is mind to mind. On a tactical level the goal is to disjoint expectations and sow fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Horowitz is very good at this. Elect him Governor. Do not elect someone like Ann Coulter as she is all stick. The carrot is needed in one hand, the stick in the other.
Corrupt your enemy, do not be afraid to bribe his supporters.
Have very much better intelligence about him than he has about you.
You can only change yourself and how you see reality, that is learn. If you can change yourself fast enough you can win.
On the very short term, Schwartzenegger intends to bribe the Democrat's supporters. This is good tactics. "Divide and Conquer" is true as always.
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