Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.
This is doubly true if Schwarzenegger wins.
His victory moves the Republican party away from being a conservative party.
If he wins no it would be difficult for any Republican candidate to have a pro-family position.
That's 11% more than McClintock.
Yes.
BTW, Cruz Bustamante is causcasian.
Worked to help elect Republicans in the 80's in CA, still have a good number of friends involved in politics out there, and was just in CA in December for two weeks for my daughter's wedding in San Diego. You picked on the wrong person to label by a flag. I live in Norman, OK, right now but that is because they closed Kelly AFB in San Antonio! When we left CA, Norton AFB looked to be on the block for closure which it was eventually.
Lived all over this Country and have to admit that I never met anyone like the McC supporters I have seen on here with their spin and lies. Trying to discuss something rationale with you folks is turning out to be a waste of time.
BTW, have a nice day! I concede defeat because common sense doesn't work!
He should have been given the chance to win or lose.
He earned it.
That is why the three stooges will get what they get.
It also shows how the Republican party was asleep at the wheel and playing defense when they had the ball.
What you don't understand is that Schwarzenegger is the left.
"If only" and "60%"?
"Somehow, those phrases do not mesh. "If only" works if we are talking about a small number, not a substantial majority.
HOWEVER, if we look at the Survey USA Poll, a switch of only 34% produces a McClintock victory.
That said, If ever there was an election to be cautious about "what the polls tell us," this is definitely it. There are so many unknowns and possible distortions going on. Arnold may be uncatchable, then again, maybe not. Maybe not at all. The final results will be pretty interesting.
Way further Left than Schwarzenegger are real Leftists, true Leninists. They intend to make life in this country so bad, so desperate, so hungry and unemployed, and the people so stupid, that the Leninist's lies about the "rich", "capitalist", "establishment", "souless corporations", etc. are believed by the "proletariat" to be the truth, and the Leninists will gain power and be able to hold it. Blood, blood, and more blood will keep them in power. The "McClintock" faction is furthering this "inner Party" Leftist agenda.
The problem from the point of view of principle is education, not just winning at any cost. A short term win (such as gradual migration of an economy to slave-free) would not avoid a long term loss (Civil War).
Likewise, just because the White Rose did not entirely succeed in Nazi Germany does not make their cause any less just, or pointless. They were right in principle. Sometimes that matters more than winning.
Applied to California, I want to remain optimistic. I would like Arnold to drop his ersatz liberalism and embrace Tom's economic policy. For his part, perhaps, Tom might agree to stop attacking Arnold's positions on some less central issues (central == economy and budget). That would permit a ray of hope for Tombots who cling to principle, yes? Also a ray of hope for Arnold supporters who want to win at any cost, yes?
On education versus winning: real leaders move people to their point of view. Take Reagan and the speech about the Berlin Wall. Or JFK and ask not what your country can do for you. Arnold is doing vice versa with his hydrogen-powered Hummer, and don't touch education, and seemingly many other planks in his platform. And it probably won't fool a lot of the diehard liberals in the state anyway. The moderates will just take it as a sign that Arnold is no better than Davis, and vote against the recall. Arnold supporters seem to take the recall yes part of the ballot as a given when it is not. But if you throw principle overboard to achieve success, why not a sense of proportion and direction along with it?
Okay, okay, i should have put that in quotations: "only" 34%. It's still quite a bit, but hey, it could happen.
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You are so right. What is even worse, they are doing it consciously -- some have stated that they actually prefer Bustamante to Arnold, and among the "some" McC is included, he stated that as well. Now what kind of Republican is someone who prefers "Bustamante, an Aztlan nationalist socialist, a racial purity fascist" (as you aptly put it), than to have a Republican win.
I agree, but tell that to him, and the US Government. In things like "La Raza" (race) little things like that don't matter.
Who stated this?
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