Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[MEG33]

Just checking up on you to see how things are going.The winds didn't drop as much as I'd hoped.

I have overrated my influence on these things!

[Slip18]

As Red Green always says, "I'm pulling for you."

[Theo]

Can anyone post pics? I'm especially interested in the VA Beach area (I understand the VA Beach pier is damaged?).... We don't have power here in Chesapeake, Virginia, and my only visual connection with what's happening is here on FR....

[steveegg]

At least they didn't go up, which is a good thing.

[Gabz]

Appreciate the Geography lesson.

I live in Accomac county, which I know is the Eastern Shore - but it is also the lower portion of the DelMarVa Peninsula - which is shortened to just the Peninsula - oarticularly by those of us from Delaware. LOL!!!

[Tiki_Bar]

My daughter lives in New Bern, NC anyone have a report from that area.

[Slip18]

Give me a zip code in FReepmail. I'll try to pull a photo from WeatherBug. com.

[Howlin]

She went in between Lookout and Hatteras.

One can only imagine...

Winds still 98 mph.

[Howlin]

They all left........LOL.....honestly, I heard New Bern was locked up last night!

New Bern is on the west side of the eye, so it won't be so bad, relatively speaking.

Lots of wind and water.

[Gabz]

My sympathies for you having chosen to move to the people's republic of Delaware.

My husband and I sought political asylum from there this spring on the much more conservative Eastern Shore of Virginia.

But all kidding aside - I wish you lots of luck with both houses. DelMarVA is going to need it as the day progresses.

Prayers to you.

[steveegg]

I want the NWS to make that 3-d radar that was just on TWC available on the web.

[Gabz]

I wasn't aware of that. I still think it's cool, even more so if it is a matter of policy.

[rwfromkansas]

Keep your stick on the ice. We're all in this together. :)

Thank goodness it is not worse than it is, but still rough.

[southernnorthcarolina]

But why in the heck are the Yankees playing the Orioles right now in Baltimore?

Wind blowing toward the outfield at 58 mph. Orioles leading 29-26 in the top of the 3rd.

OK, I lied. Scoreless in top of the third.

[Fishtalk]

And atleast we have a Republican Gov now. We are trying to change.

How about this Delaware having two Dems for Senators (one the very pious Biden) and that awful, awful Soccer Mom Governor?

I have already visited the local Repubbie party in Georgetwon Del and by my discussion with the Sussex county chair, the pubs are hopelessly in bed with the Dems.

This state really needs me.

[VRWC_minion]

Whats the red circles near Jacksonville mean on the pics ?

[angcat]

Please they are so delicate as it is (yanks). I hope they call the game or we will hear about all the aches and pains tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!

[Eowyn-of-Rohan]

I would have taken Ocracoke... Any word about how it is faring? Love that island...

[COBOL2Java]

Whats the red circles near Jacksonville mean on the pics ?

Probably Bob Graham crying over his poll results...

[steveegg]

No word, but it was completely evacuated a long time ago (ferry service stopped late yesterday, IIRC).