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Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"
NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneisabel; isabel; landfall
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To: Sam Cree
I expect people smarter than I to read and figure these things out!
81 posted on 09/17/2003 8:56:08 PM PDT by MEG33
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To: Rennes Templar; Corin Stormhands
Oh yeah? We've got blizzards in Montana. Hurricanes and volcanoes are nothing!

Oh yeah? Well... I've had batches of potato salad that wreaked destruction that were worse that this!!!

< /sarcasm for those that don't get it. >

82 posted on 09/17/2003 8:56:40 PM PDT by Ramius
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To: Howlin
THAT doesn't look good, why does that red condom keep getting closer to us?

That's it for me, I need to get some sleep, I've been up since 6 am after only 4 hours of sleep last night with some pretty bizarre hurricane dreams so I'm seeing double at this point.

I'll catch everyone back here in the am. Stay dry, seek higher ground.

MKM

83 posted on 09/17/2003 8:56:53 PM PDT by mykdsmom (We often give our enemies the means of our own destruction - Aesop)
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To: Ramius; Rennes Templar; Corin Stormhands
Y'all just keep all those nasty natural disasters to yourself now :)
84 posted on 09/17/2003 8:57:40 PM PDT by Calpernia (Innocence seldom utters outraged shrieks. Guilt does.)
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To: bart99
I expect they are wrong.

And you would be right:




I am in Raleigh. I'll try to stop all I can.......LOL.

85 posted on 09/17/2003 8:58:31 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Miss Marple
LMFAO...that is wayyyyyy too funny
86 posted on 09/17/2003 8:58:39 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: MEG33
Pie, did someone request pie????


87 posted on 09/17/2003 8:58:43 PM PDT by Gabz (anti-smokers - personification of everything wrong in this country.)
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To: Calpernia
But... it's nice to share. :-)
88 posted on 09/17/2003 8:59:06 PM PDT by Ramius
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To: mykdsmom
THAT doesn't look good, why does that red condom keep getting closer to us?

LOL......it doesn't look much like protection, does it?

I think it means we're getting screwed!

89 posted on 09/17/2003 8:59:42 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: amom
Did you see that last image!!!! That one wave went over the side of the pier! That thing will be going down by 8 am.
90 posted on 09/17/2003 9:00:22 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: Ramius
Then I have a nice young lady named Isabel I would like to betrove to you.
91 posted on 09/17/2003 9:00:27 PM PDT by Calpernia (Innocence seldom utters outraged shrieks. Guilt does.)
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To: My Favorite Headache
Where did you get this picture? We have a cottage about three hundred yards from this pier.
92 posted on 09/17/2003 9:00:55 PM PDT by billhilly (Nominate Big Al Sharpton for fearless behavior.)
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To: Howlin
Dave Schwartz Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!
93 posted on 09/17/2003 9:01:47 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Which one will lose? Depends on what I choose or maybe which voice...I ignore.)
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To: Howlin
You are in Raleigh? uh oh........

Just put up some extra "STOP" signs or "Right Turn Only" signs.

Thanks....... and be safe.

B.
94 posted on 09/17/2003 9:01:55 PM PDT by bart99
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To: Ramius
I've got South Dakota blizzards AND Tom Daschle! Beat that!
95 posted on 09/17/2003 9:02:06 PM PDT by jwalburg (The Democrats are trying to overturn the results of free enterprise)
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To: blam
paleotempestology

New one on me.

One model suggests that global warming will increase hurricane frequency, while another foretells the exact opposite.

But this is defintely the same old yada yada.

Interesting find Blam. Thanks.

96 posted on 09/17/2003 9:03:03 PM PDT by lizma
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To: Ramius
Bad...oh, so bad.
97 posted on 09/17/2003 9:03:09 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
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To: StarFan; Dutchy; alisasny; Black Agnes; BobFromNJ; BUNNY2003; Cacique; Clemenza; Coleus; DKNY; ...
Check out post #31 (LOL)

STAY SAFE everyone!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.

98 posted on 09/17/2003 9:03:28 PM PDT by nutmeg ("The DemocRATic party...has been hijacked by a confederacy of gangsters..." - Pat Caddell, 11/27/00)
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To: bart99
BTW, here is a very good site that been shared this time; it's in Lexington, Virginia and has a lot of neat links.

http://www.wrel.com/hurricane.htm

Scroll down on the right and look at the Computer Models for some tracks.
99 posted on 09/17/2003 9:03:47 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Calpernia
I don't envy you Isabel. She's gonna really mess stuff up over there. Best wishes to you if you're in the path...
100 posted on 09/17/2003 9:04:08 PM PDT by Ramius
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