Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Overtaxed]

But then, they don't have trees in Texas and Oklahoma to blow down.

[dennis1x]

lol...riiight...no trees in Texas and Oklahoma...

[Jackie-O]

Yeah, he's pretty bad about keeping in touch..
Usually when I haven't heard from him in a while, he's off on a fishing trip at the ocean.
He loves where he is at in NC. Close enough to the coast to take off on a fishing trip, but not wanting to live there on the coast with all of these hurricanes hitting NC most of the time!

[iceskater]

Ditto here in Richmond. Flooding and falling trees are what I'm worried about. Our house is surrounded by trees and is in a somewhat low-lying area. We did ok through Floyd but I think Isabel is going to be worse.

[mtbrandon49]

Bump to show wife!!

[Howlin]

[Interesting Times]

Even Category 1 storms kill people.

Dance away...

[Gabz]

The ground is saturated throughout Virginia. Been that way for months now.

Understatement of the moment AWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dennis1x]

rarely....

[Howlin]

He has no concept of the "FReeper Family."

I just finally gave up trying to explain it to people.

I must say I do get a thrill out of seeing the look on their face when I talk about "a friend of mine online." :-)

[Jonah Hex]

Yep, running on UPS. Running the power draw numbers, I'm good for 10 minutes (computer/monitor/cable modem, etc.), before I have to shut down.

Just blinked again.

[CobaltBlue]

The ground is really saturated - heavy clay so saturated it's squishy. If either of the tallest oaks falls due east, the tops will hit our house. Due south and they will hit one neighbor's house. Any other direction and it's ok.

[Interesting Times]

Let's do this. If nobody dies as a result of this storm, I'll donate an extra $100 to FR.

Otherwise, you do. Deal?

[steveegg]

Slight difference between Texas/Oklahoma (and Wisconsin) and NC/Virginia right now; the ground there is quite saturated, and those trees will be coming down like dominoes as a result. Don't forget about the flooding (worse because of that saturated ground, churned waves, and storm surge).

[Howlin]

actually no....85kt winds wont cause structural damage...and noone is losing their lives right now.

Every single time you post stuff like that, all you do is show how completely ignorant you are.

Fran had 80 mph winds. And unless I'm sadly mistaken, a LOT of people died and there was almost 4 billion dollars worth of destruction in this state alone.

Be gone, troll.

[steveegg]

Not good. As long as it isn't due east or south,....

[Interesting Times]

Actually, Fran had 115 mph winds, but did kill a number of people.

[Jonah Hex]

280,000 without power now in SE Virginia/NE Carolina, according to Domninion Power.

[okkev68]

I take it you have never been to oklahoma then.

[xsmommy]

i am also in fairfax and paranoid about all the trees around us. they have fallen during windless sunny days for no apparent reason, so i really expect to see them falling at some point here, once it gets started...