Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[EternalVigilance]

Hey, that is an awesome dog you got there--and the haiku ain't half shabby either! ;-)

[EternalVigilance]

They are incredibly exposed over there on the Eastern Shore.

Prayers continue here...

[honeygrl]

"A tornado is loud - some say it sounds like a train...... "

I've heard one from a couple miles away and it made the eeriest noise that's impossible to describe. My stupid hubby and dad were standing outside listening to it since we were just getting pea sized hail and no rain. I personally was under the house with my brother. My mom has since had a storm shelter built in her yard.

[MEG33]

I remember! Love the water tower!

[EternalVigilance]

The only thing I can come up with to explain these noises you and others have heard tonight is wind shear.

It is now getting as intense here in DC as it has been yet. No rain currently, but the wind is blowing real hard.

[MEG33]

How are you,Howlin?

[honeygrl]

"That one sounded for all the world like bees when they are swarming looking for a new home,but louder and with a noticeable dull vibration you could feel throughout your body. "

That's exactly what the one I heard sounded like! I just couldn't think of the right words for it. We found out later it was a couple miles away.

[Mo1]

have heard tonight is wind shear.

Could be .. I could hear the trees swaying in the wind .. but there was another noise that I couldn't figure out was it was.

Poured rain about a half hour ago .. but now it just A LOT of wind .. big gusts of wind

And still no power

I was listening to Night line on the radio ... They were talking about Jeff Goldblum from FNC and how his pants were falling down while he was reporting .. I got a chuckle over that one ..

[Slip18]

Oh, my gosh, that photo is hysterical.

[Conservababe]

I learned that lesson here in my small town years ago. You don't have to be crossing a creek or waterway, to get swept away.

Before our town put in flood control measures, flash floods were dangerous, even in residental areas.

One afternoon, coming home from work, I did not realize how many inches it had rained in so short a time.

I turned into an uphill street near my home and was literally swept back down into a neighbor's yard.

I was so scared.

[honeygrl]

"Anyone who says they are not "afraid" of tornados, has not experienced a large one........ "

I've never been in one but am absolutely petrified of the possibility when tornado season hits. I'm in GA so they aren't as bad as some other places but we do get them in the spring and sometimes in the fall when the cold fronts first start coming south. This year, fall is coming nice and quietly.

[kayak]

You don't know the force of the water or the depth when driving through it!

I, too, can vouch for the truth of that.

Years ago, hubby and I (though we weren't married at the time) were riding down a residential street in a heavy rain storm. We were just around a curve from his parents' house when a 3 foot wall of water came rolling through the adjacent lawns and into the street.

Before we knew it, the seat we were sitting on was floating! (That was back in 'olden days' when cars had bench seats even in the front). We had to get out of the car in water above my waist (I'm only 5 feet tall) with lighting flashing all around us and try to find our way down the curved street to his home, knowing there were ditches along side the road.

I came as close to pure hysteria as I've ever been in my life! Luckily, one of the neighbor's saw us and directed us into his driveway ..... and, unbelievably, from the other side of his yard, we could walk safely to hubby's home ..... the flooding stopped there in the curve in the road. Had we gotten just a little farther down the road before the small flash flood, we would have been ok.

[EternalVigilance]

We've had some really intense gusts in the last little bit. The last one about two minutes ago shook the building quite a lot...and this is a massive two-story brick building that's been standing here for the last 120 or so years.

Still have power, though. Semi-miraculous. LOL...

[HiJinx]

You know, each part of the country has it's dangerous situations - California has earthquakes, the entire middle section of the country is tornado alley, and up here in the Mid=Atlantic and New England States we are prone to blizzards....... Your section has to deal with hurricanes (and tornados).......

I've lived in all those places (CA, OH, MS, TX, KS, MA) and more, and dealt with my fair share of bad weather. That's why I'm in Arizona now, with naught but drought or thunder ~n lightning to worry about!

Seriously, prayers out to everyone who has found themselves in Izzy's path tonight.

[MEG33]

It is a feeling hard to describe to feel yourself floating in a car.I was the fool that learned my lesson and realized I wouldn't have been much help to my mom drowned in a flooding creek.I think it took awhile before my legs quit shaking so bad I could hardly drive!

[MEG33]

Praying and posting here.

[Slip18]

Unless she's down from this post, Gabz hasn't been on since a little after 2:00 p.m. her time this afternoon. She has prepared. I'm sure she will be fine. I'm worried, too.

[Interesting Times]

Thanks for the prayers and kind thoughts. We have set up a number of buckets and towels to catch most of the water coming in, though there's obviously going to be some water damage. I can actually see the double trunk of the 80-foot tree from our back yard in the attic through our shattered bedroom ceiling. It also crunched the peak of the roof, and the crown of the tree is filling most of the front yard, as near as I can tell.

The kids are sleeping peacefully downstairs. We'll have something interesting to show them in the morning.

It can quit blowing and raining here any time as far as I'm concerned...

[amom]

prayers out to everyone who has found themselves in Izzy's path tonight.

Ditto that! I'm still holding my breath hoping everyone stays safe. I'm quite blue by now. ;-)

[EternalVigilance]

I think we've done a pretty good job with our 'Don't Drive Through High-Water' PSAs tonight, don't you? LOL...

Who knows, maybe someone here will take it to heart.

:-)