Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[abner]

For now, I will call it wind shear. Thanks. I'm going to shut down now and try to get some sleep and save some battery power. Stay safe everybody!

[Howlin]

I agree with you; I honestly wasn't worried today because I felt like we had done our homework and were prepared, so today we could just be here and wait it out.

It helps to go through things like this with other people. You learn so much from each other and about each other.

They have had a lot of interviews with people tonight who stayed to "ride it out" who have said that they would NEVER do it again.

I think as a state, North Carolina has learned her lessons and is capable to taking care of whatever comes. It's too bad that we've had so many "lessons" in hurricanes, but it is part of God's world and WE have to learn to adapt to it.

I am anxious about our friends.

[Howlin]

Stay safe. Check in when you can!

[Fitzcarraldo]

did the wind change direction suddenly?

[abner]

Could it have been something floating in the creek?

No. It was overhead.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Tornadoes sound like trains. So if it didn't go "Toooooot, toooooot, toot, toooooooot", then it wasn't a tornado.

I taught Jim Cantori everything he knows...

[glock rocks]

g'nite. sleep warm.

[Howlin]

Wind?

[Think free or die]

Our school also messed up the Floyd decision. The kids were riding home on the bus in the worst of rain and wind. Really stupid. We don't have a school closing decision for tomorrow yet. I'm guessing they'll wait until morning and see how bad the power outages and road hazards look.

[abner]

did the wind change direction suddenly?

There was very little to no wind and then the noise. Very bizarre. Now it is raining again, and the wind is blowing pretty good. I like it better when I can hear stuff.

[Howlin]

xsmommy isn't here either.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

You know, each part of the country has it's dangerous situations - California has earthquakes, the entire middle section of the country is tornado alley, and up here in the Mid=Atlantic and New England States we are prone to blizzards....... Your section has to deal with hurricanes (and tornados)....... we learn each year and deal with it if we need to..... you did a good thing in preparing ahead of time - I'm sure some were not as smart as you

[EternalVigilance]

Yeah, it's been pretty gusty at times. 60 mph or so would be my guess at times. The rain has slacked off now.

[glock rocks]

I agree, and I've learned alot today... and a bit about myself too.

If we weren't anxious about our friends, well, that would be a cause for concern.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Well I was even stupider (is that a word?)......I got scared and decided to pick my kids up from school! We had only lived here a short time and, coming from West Texas, I had no idea that creeks actually had water in them........ every direction I tried to drive to my son's school had a flooded creek.....I finally just went for it and still can't believe I drove through that......! lol

[Free Trapper]

I had a twister come down right on top of me as I made it into the cellar once.

That one sounded for all the world like bees when they are swarming looking for a new home,but louder and with a noticeable dull vibration you could feel throughout your body.

[EternalVigilance]

Lots of people don't survive driving through high water. Once the water gets above the wheels you're downstream before you can do a thing about it. Not advisable at all.

[Howlin]

Much of Old Towne under water. High tide at 2am.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Oh I know! It was completely stupid.......

[Howlin]

2 feet of water is all it takes. And during Floyd, 24 people died in their cars from the water.