Burr leads Bowles, Blue in U.S. Senate race, poll finds [NC]

Charlotte News Observer ^ | ROB CHRISTENSEN

[BlackRazor]

Burr leads Bowles, Blue in U.S. Senate race, poll finds

By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer

Republican Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem holds an early lead in next year's race to replace Democratic Sen. John Edwards, according to a new statewide poll.

Burr leads two prospective Democratic opponents, Charlotte investment banker Erskine Bowles and Raleigh attorney Dan Blue, the survey found.

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, who plans to seek a second term next year, continues to show resilience despite a battered economy and 2 1/2 years of budget crisis, according to the survey of 600 likely voters conducted last week by Research 2000 and commissioned by The News & Observer.

Burr showed strength in the first public poll taken since Edwards announced Sept. 7 he would not seek re-election and would instead concentrate on his White House run.

When asked whom they preferred in the 2004 Senate race, likely voters said they preferred Burr over Bowles by a 43 percent to 37 percent margin with 20 percent undecided. They said they liked Burr over Blue by a 45 percent to 33 percent margin, with 22 percent undecided.

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means that the Burr-Bowles race could be a toss-up or Burr's edge could be as much as 14 percentage points and that Burr could lead Blue by as few as 4 percentage points or as many as 20 percentage points.

Burr's early lead may reflect that he has been campaigning for the seat for nine months, said Del Ali, president of the polling company. "Burr has been out and running," Ali said. "He is going to be the GOP candidate. Now for all intents and purposes, it is only in the last week we have begun to hear about Bowles and Blue."

Neither Bowles nor Blue has announced his candidacy, and the Democratic field is far from certain.

Bowles, a former White House chief of staff, and Blue, a former state House speaker, met last week in Blue's law office in Raleigh. "I've gotten along with Erskine over the years," Blue said. "We basically just talked about being friends. It was a pleasant discussion."

Blue said he's talking with supporters, weighing a potential bid. "I am asking people to be totally candid. I don't want to prejudge what my final position is going to be."

In a Democratic primary, Bowles was preferred over Blue by a 31 percent to 17 percent margin among likely Democratic voters, with 52 percent undecided.

There appears to be renewed interest in the Senate race by Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge of Lillington. He did not return a phone call Monday.

Burr said he was encouraged by the poll results. He expressed surprise that he was leading Bowles, who just came through a statewide campaign, losing to Republican Elizabeth Dole for U.S. Senate last year.

Geoff Garin, who is Bowles' pollster, said he was skeptical of the poll results.

Garrin released partial results of a survey he conducted Sept. 8-9 of 605 likely voters, which showed Bowles leading Burr by a 43 percent to 37 percent margin, with 22 percent undecided.

"Our polling shows that Erskine Bowles would begin this race with a lead over Richard Burr," Garin said.

The Research 2000 survey showed Burr was viewed favorably by 42 percent of those surveyed. Bowles was viewed favorably by 34 percent and Blue was viewed favorably by 29 percent.

In the governor's race, 42 percent of those surveyed said they would vote to re-elect Easley. Twenty-seven percent said they would consider voting for another candidate, and 31 percent said they wanted to replace the governor.

"It's his race to lose," said Ali, adding that all Easley has to do to win is persuade 8 or 9 percent of the undecided voters to support him.

For Easley to lose, Ali said, there would have to be strong coattails from President Bush to help the GOP candidate. "If it's a close presidential race," Ali said, "I don't see how Easley loses."

Asked to rate Easley's job performance, 52 percent rated him good or excellent, 35 percent thought he was doing a fair job, 8 percent said poor and 5 percent were not sure.

A number of Republicans are running next year, including state Sen. Patrick Ballantine of Wilmington, Davie County Commissioner Dan Barrett, former U.S. Rep. Bill Cobey of Durham, Southern Pines insurance agent George Little and former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot.

[mykdsmom]

Asked to rate Easley's job performance, 52 percent rated him good or excellent

What are these people smokin? NC Ping!

[AntiGuv]

[Burr] expressed surprise that he was leading Bowles, who just came through a statewide campaign, losing to Republican Elizabeth Dole for U.S. Senate last year.

I can't imagine why. It's difficult to come up with a more worthless (and creepy) candidate than Erskine Bowles. Well, except Dan Blue comes to mind..

The GOP should be concerned about Bobby Etheridge - he'd be the toughest D nominee, by far....

[mtbrandon49]

"What are these people smokin?"

My thoughts exactly!

[BlackRazor]

The GOP should be concerned about Bobby Etheridge - he'd be the toughest D nominee, by far....

I agree. This is the first I'd seen in awhile that he was still considering a run. I thought that I'd seen something some time back that he had ruled it out.

[Constitution Day]

Whoa. That 52% must have included some of the true Dem Kool-Aid drinkers.

[mtbrandon49]

They must have been polling around Chapel Hill.

[NC Conservative]

Bobby Etheridge

I have met him a few times. Nice guy. LIBERAL as hell.

[southernnorthcarolina]

It's the Raleigh News & Observer -- please do not inflict that rag on my fair city.

Not that the Charlotte Observer is much better.

Anyway, Burr's lead over Bowles at this point is amazing. I suspect it has a lot to do with name recognition -- negative name recognition in the case of Erskine Bowles, who of course ran for the Senate in 2002 against Elizabeth Dole. For him to be trailing a Congressman who represents Winston-Salem and parts of the Blue Ridge in the far NW corner of the state, and who has never run statewide before, is quite interesting.

A story on the coming NC Senate race last week contained this fascinating statement:

"We don't feel intimidated at all by Richard Burr," said Brad Woodhouse, press secretary for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and a former Bowles aide. "They've cleared the field for a guy who was selling toasters before he went into Congress and is virtually unknown outside his district. That's a big risk for a U.S. Senate seat." Burr, first elected in 1994, was marketing director for a wholesale business that dealt in appliances before he began his political career.

Isn't that nice? A snide comment about having to work for a living from a guy whose candidate is running on his wife's money. I'd like to see that quote get wider exposure, assuming Bowles gets the nomination, as he almost surely will. The "Party of the People" will nominate, for their third consecutive Senate race in NC, an extremely wealthy candidate who will largely self-finance his race (or, more bluntly, will attempt to buy the seat).

[Constitution Day]

Ah, if only Jesse had gotten his fence built...

[Rebelbase]

"a guy who was selling toasters before he went into Congress "

I agree with you. That is a typical liberal elitist comment from someone who is disconnected from the working class mainstream.

[BlackRazor]

It's the Raleigh News & Observer -- please do not inflict that rag on my fair city.

Eek! I sure butchered that one! As someone who used to live in Charlotte, I should have known better!

[Tax-chick]

It's almost 14 months until the election! (!!!) The prospect of more than a year of campaign drivel is unspeakable. Can't we just hold the election next week, after the hurricane?

[Kuksool]

Good news. Burr is initially leading Erskine Bowles.

[Impy]

Yes. Especially given that Bowels probably has higher name id at this point.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The GOP should be concerned about Bobby Etheridge - he'd be the toughest D nominee, by far...."

---

I'm not so sure about that. Bowles has statewide name ID, and money up the wahoo. He ran quite strongly in rural areas in 2002, much better than I thought he would (and much better than Al Gore did, I may add). I don't think Etheridge will run better than Bowles did in rural areas, even though he used to be a tobacco farmer. At this point, I would be pleased if Etheridge ran for the Senate, since (i) it will open up his House seat, which would give us an excellent chance for a pick-up (President Bush got 53% of the vote in his redrawn district), (ii) Etheridge would probably lose to Bowles in the primary, or allow Blue to slip through with 40% composed almost entirely of black votes, and (iii) regardless of who wins the RAT nomination, he would have a hard time getting all the RATs back together to support him after the contentious primary. So to Etheridge, I say bring it on!

Johnny, what's your take on the RAT race?

[AuH2ORepublican]

Another possibility I forgot to mention if Etheridge runs in the RAT primary: RUN-OFF! With three fairly popular candidates, there's a good chance that none of them would get as much as 40% of the vote, thus making a run-off necessary. That would push back even further the date in which the RATs know who their nominee is, and will leave them precious little time to lick their wounds and unite behind the winner. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of Etheridge running for the Senate.

[Howlin]

I didn't get called, did you?

[Kuksool]

Bob Etheridge seriously considered running for the Senate in 2002. But Richard Gephart convinced him to stay in the House. Now that the House RATS are destined to be a minority at least until 2012, Etheridge will most likely run for the Senate. Etheridge's House seat, the NC-02, covers parts of Wake County and GOP-trending Johnston County. George W. Bush and Liddy Dole carried the NC-02. Etheridge's House seat rightfully belongs to the GOP. If Bob Etheridge pursues a Senate campaign, we should be able to win the NC-02. I also look forward to seeing Bowles, Blue, and Etheridge smack each other down in the primary. It shall be fun to watch.

[Kuksool]

***likely voters said they preferred Burr over Bowles by a 43 percent to 37 percent margin with 20 percent undecided. They said they liked Burr over Blue by a 45 percent to 33 percent***

It is an excellent sign that Burr is polling in the mid-40's at this point in time. Since Burr started campaigning throughout the state, he has been trending upward in the polls.

Feb. Poll: Edwards 49 Burr 31

May Poll: Edwards: 47 Burr 36

July Poll: Edwards: 47 Burr 39