Posted on 09/15/2003 6:12:23 PM PDT by SamAdams76
When Unilever PLC, the British food giant that owns Slim-Fast Foods, announced in July that U.S. profits had dropped 23 percent, it quickly pointed an accusing finger at the Atkins diet, the trendy weight-loss plan high in protein and low in carbohydrates. Atkins, Unilever's chairman explained, has set off shock waves in consumption that have cut Slim-Fast's profits, and there's no way to fight a fad.
Suddenly, Wall Street is blaming the diet craze for all sorts of economic upheavals, and the deafening buzz is almost enough to drown out economic sense. Time, the Economist, USA Today, and countless media outlets—marveling at the idea of slimming pork chops and heavy cream—have touted the commercial impact of the Atkins plan. The diet has been blamed for falling wheat prices and booming beef sales.
But is there really an Atkins economy?
Three months ago, the British Federation of Bakers made headlines when it announced that bread sales have declined 2 percent per year since Dr. Atkins' book was re-released in 1997. Wheat consumption has dropped from 147 pounds per person to 139 pounds in the past six years. And in May, the Tortilla Industry Association held a high-profile seminar titled "An Industry in Crisis: The High-Protein, Low-Carb Diet and Its Effects on the Tortilla Industry."
Atkins-friendly foods, on the other hand, are booming. News reports have credited Atkins for an increase in U.S. beef sales in 12 of the past 14 quarters. Prices on cattle futures have climbed from 65 cents per pound in 2001 to 82 cents per pound today (suggesting the beef market has grown by $3 billion in 3 years). Consumption of bacon and eggs are at 10-year highs. Beef jerky sales are up more than 40 percent in the past two years, and pork-rinds have tripled their market share to $496 million per year.
Entrepreneurs are rushing to join the party. Atkins Nutritionals Inc., the food company started by Atkins before his death this year, sold $100 million worth of 90 low-carb products last year. Weight Watchers is introducing a low-carb pasta. Michelob hawks its new beer Ultra with the slogan, "Lose the carbs. Not the taste." (Michelob refuses to specify how the beer is selling but says it has "exceeded expectations.") And in California, New York, and, improbably, Texas, you can get freshly prepared Atkins meals delivered hot to your door. No one can specify the size of the Atkins market, but experts estimate it's at least $1 billion per year.
"It's rare that a diet will have an impact on national trends," said Harry Balzer, the author of the annual Eating Patterns in America. "Atkins is the exception."
But Atkins is winning more credit than it deserves, say economists. It's an example of how media excitement about a cultural trend leads to misinterpretation of an economic trend.
The evidence most commonly cited to prove the Atkins diet is roiling the economy is a study by the Natural Marketing Institute that claims 25.4 million Americans—12 percent of the adult population—have tried the Atkins diet. But those numbers deserve a little skepticism. NMI's executive project director, Joe Marra, said the company doesn't specifically ask about the Atkins diet. Rather, under the methodology used by NMI in its survey of 2,000 families, anyone who forgoes bread for a few days in an attempt to lose a few pounds is considered an Atkins dieter.
But almost everyone else, including experts from the consumer information giant NPD Foodworld, pegs the number of Atkins dieters at closer to 3 percent of the nation's adult population—about 6 million people—based on statistical sampling.
The Research Institute on Livestock Pricing reports that the average American per-capita consumption of beef has increased 1.8 pounds per year since 1997—another 525 million pounds per year. If the 6 million Atkins dieters are consuming all that additional beef, then they are eating 87.5 pounds more meat per year than they previously did, which would mean they're now eating steak and burgers at every meal except breakfast. And that's just beef. Pork, chicken, eggs—if all the increases in Atkins-friendly foods are due to Atkins dieters, it's a wonder anyone has lost weight: They would have to be eating almost nonstop. (And those who note the surge in Atkins-friendly food tend to ignore an equally vigorous countertrend: Sales of Krispy Kreme donuts grew an amazing 25 percent last year, to $492 million, with cookies, potato chips, and other Atkins-verboten products following suit.)
So, why the increase in demand for beef, pork, and chicken? Atkins probably plays a small part, but it may have much more to do with everyday economics than any fad diet. Convenience, more than anything else, is what drives consumer trends, say experts. "Time is of the essence," said Balzer. "The trend in the last 15 years has been towards more convenient options. Cereal bars, toaster pastries, frozen breakfast sandwiches—that's where the growth has been."
"Today's family has two working parents," said Wayne Purcell, professor of agricultural and applied economics at Virginia Tech.* "They want something easy to prepare, and the meat industry is finally providing that."
Meat is suddenly convenient. Beef Magazine reported that last year more than 500 new "beef convenience" products were launched, and sales of frozen and heat-and-serve beef have hit $1.5 billion, up from virtually nothing a decade ago. For the first time beef is transitioning from a commodity to a branded product, with quality improving as a result. "Ten years ago people just bought steak, and it might be pretty tough," said Purcell. "Now they buy Omaha Steaks filet mignon, ready to heat up in minutes. Companies are putting out much better meat in order to compete."
But if the Atkins diet is supposed to help America lose weight, the push for convenience has the opposite effect. Economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago persuasively argue that one of the biggest reasons for the nation's current obesity epidemic is that food is now so much cheaper and easier to prepare. "Forty percent of the recent growth in weight seems to be due to agricultural innovation that has lowered food prices," write Darius Lakdawalla of the RAND Corp. and Tomas Philipson of the University of Chicago.
It's simple supply and demand: When supply becomes more prevalent, demand is easier to satisfy. We're not eating more steak because of the Atkins diet, they say. We're eating more, simply because we can.
I'm about 6'4" but actually closer to 6'3" and a half.
Anyway, it's getting late so I'm going to answer a few more replies and then hit the sack. 5AM is not that far away! But before I go, I ought to post a picture of one of the "low-carb" fish I caught that day. Yeah, we ate good that night.
Also, try to find some time in your day to walk. Even if it is only walking around the block at first. Walk that block every day and then eventually you will find yourself walking further each time.
When I first started walking in April, my thighs would rub together and bleed. Also my shins and feet would ache like hell. It was very discouraging. But I kept at it. And eventually I got to the point where I am now walking 7-10 miles a day. I'd like to walk more but there just aren't enough hours in the day - even when you wake up at 5AM! To pass the time, I carry a MP3 player and I listen to lots of classical, opera, jazz, and other music I never give a chance to during the regular day. When you are walking, you can focus on the music you are listening too and really start to appreciate it. As well, I pay attention to all the scenery around me. All the fall colors are starting to come in around here.
Anyway, look at it as a journey well worth taking. Just take it one day at a time. You'll get there. And once people start noticing the weight coming off, you will be motivated to take off even more. At least that's how it was with me.
Lookin' good, Sam!
As the evidence continues to mount that low-carb eating is a healthy lifestyle more and more companies will jump on the bandwagon and begin marketing low-carb products. I predict within 6 months this market will explode.
I think it is a matter of time before restaurants come out with "normal-carb" menus. But already, most restaurants will cater to the normal-carb folks and I have never had a problem making substitutions for high-carb items. The waitstaff appear to have been trained on this way of eating and many of them eat that way themselves.
Anyway, time for my walk...
Regarding your comment about restuarants, yes the wait staff is aware of low carbers. I don't think management has figured out how to market to "us". Few menus have low carb features and you do have to ask for the veggies instead of potatoe or fries.
Outback is great for steaks. But more resturants need to have a menu just beyond meat and veggies. They need to have pasta made from the spaghetti squash, and other "almost" type dishes. I firmly believe that if a chain adopts 5 or six such items and markets themselves to low carbers, they will have lines to get in their doors.
I wonder why that has not been done already.
As for the "after" pictures above, those jeans I am wearing are already too big for me. I had to buy more last night. Also, I bought some L.L. Bean shirts for the first time - size medium. No more Big & Tall shops!
I've dropped over 10 pounds since those pictures were taken. I'll update my tagline tomorrow after my official weekly weighing.
Sam, you probably know this already, but just to add to the discussion.....
Walking doesn't require any special equipment, but the right shoes help tremendously. Take the time to find a pair that fits properly, don't just buy the first pair on sale. Also, even if you are just going to walk, sometimes running shoes feel better than "walking" shoes.
A small cassette player and some books-on-tape (available at most public libraries) give you a chance to do some "reading" you wouldn't otherwise find time for.
If the amount of food available, i.e. its relative cheapness, were the determining factor in obesity then the Vietnamese would have the same problems with overweight that Americans do. Actually the population is heavier and taller than it was in 1969 but the only fat people I saw were government officials on TV and folks who eat in French restaurants in Sai Gon . Those seem to account for almost all of the incidence of high bood pressure and diabetes, too.
In Viet Nam I walked 2 to over 10 miles every day in slide-on sandals.
Kind of like low carb lean cuisine?
At one time I was eating Lean Cuisine and lost weight, but was so hungry all the time I was ready to eat my desk.
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