Five Democratic Candidates Share Support: Lieberman slips from lead; Clark surges into contention

Gallup News Service ^ | September 15, 2003 | David W. Moore

[Timesink]

POLL ANALYSES

September 15, 2003

Five Democratic Candidates Share Support

Lieberman slips from lead; Clark surges into contention

By David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With retired General Wesley Clark poised to announce whether he will compete to be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in 2004, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows the general would likely be a competitive candidate. Five candidates including Clark bunch together with low double-digit support, led by Congressman Dick Gephardt. If Clark does not run, support among the top four candidates is evenly distributed, as Senator Joe Lieberman has lost his front-runner position -- dropping 10 percentage points support in the past two weeks.

The poll, conducted Sept. 8-10, finds Gephardt in the lead with 16% support among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, followed by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (14%), Lieberman (13%), Senator John Kerry (12%), and Clark (10%). In a poll two weeks ago, Lieberman received support from 23% of Democratic voters and led by 10 percentage points over his next closest rival. Clark received just 2% of the vote, suggesting that recent publicity about his pending announcement has boosted his name recognition and support.

Support for Democratic Candidates for President Among Registered Democrats and Independents Who Lean to Democratic Party
	Congressman Dick Gephardt	Former Vt. Gov. Howard Dean	U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman	U.S. Senator John Kerry	Retired Gen. Wesley Clark
	%	%	%	%	%
Sept. 8-10	16	14	13	12	10
Sept. 8-10	17	16	14	15	ra
Aug. 25-26	13	12	23	10	2
Aug. 4-6	15	15	18	12	na
July 25-27	16	11	21	15	na
June 12-18	17	7	21	13	na
May-June	14	5	20	17	na
April 22-23	16	6	22	18	na
ra = Clark's vote was reallocated based on who respondents said would be their second choice after Clark.
na = not asked

The poll shows that Clark's candidacy would draw support from all of the four other major candidates, but that Kerry would probably be most affected. The Massachusetts Senator receives 12% of the vote with Clark in the running, but 15% with Clark not a candidate. Dean loses two percentage points to Clark, while Lieberman and Gephardt each lose one point. (The rest of Clark's support comes from the other candidates and otherwise unsure voters.)

Other findings from the poll:

• The support of two candidates reflects a major gender gap.

• Clark is in first place among men, receiving 16% support, but ties for sixth place among women with just 5% of their vote.
• Gephardt receives much greater support from women (21%) than from men (12%).

• The support of most candidates is not related to voters' political philosophy, but Dean is a major exception.

• Among liberals, Dean receives 29% support, compared with 11% among moderates and 6% among conservatives.
• Kerry also receives little support among conservative Democrats (7%), but does about equally well among moderates (15%) and liberals (13%).
• The other three top candidates receive about the same percentage of the vote from each group.
• Gephardt is the first choice among conservatives and moderates, and the second choice (behind Dean) among liberals.

• Support for some of the candidates is highly related to how closely people follow politics.

• Kerry and Clark fare especially well among people who follow national politics very closely, with both candidates' support falling dramatically among people who are not paying attention.

Candidate Support Compared By How Closely Voters Are Following National Politics
	Gephardt	Dean	Lieberman	Kerry	Clark
Follow politics:	%	%	%	%	%
Very closely	15	17	7	21	18
Somewhat closely	18	15	13	13	7
Not closely	16	10	18	3	6

• Lieberman, by contrast, receives much more support from the inattentive voters than among the more attentive ones -- suggesting that it is Lieberman's name recognition from being the vice presidential candidate in 2000, not his current campaigning, that accounts for his standing.

• Support for several of the candidates is also somewhat related to how frequently people vote.

• Dean comes in first among Democrats who say they "always" vote, receiving 20% of these voters' support -- compared with just 11% among less frequent voters.
• Gephardt, Kerry, and Clark all receive just one to two percentage points more support among the more frequent voters than among the less frequent voters.

Candidate Support Compared By How Frequently People Vote
	Gephardt	Dean	Lieberman	Kerry	Clark
How Often Vote:	%	%	%	%	%
Always	17	20	11	14	11
Almost always	16	11	15	12	9
Part of time/ seldom/ never^	-	-	-	-	-
^Too few cases to report

• Lieberman is the only one of the five candidates to receive less support among the more frequent voters, again reflecting Lieberman's general name recognition from being the vice presidential candidate in 2000.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Sept. 8-10, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 407 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

48. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED: Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Florida Senator, Bob Graham, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun, Retired General, Wesley Clark]

49. If Wesley Clark DOES NOT run for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the nomination. [ROTATED: Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Florida Senator, Bob Graham, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun]

BASED ON -- 480 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

BASED ON -- 407 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE

	2003 Sep 8-10		2003 Sep 8-10
	Q.48		Q.48-49 (Combined Responses)
	NA	RV	NA	RV
	%	%	%	%
Dick Gephardt	15	16	17	17
Howard Dean	13	14	15	16
Joe Lieberman	12	13	13	14
John Kerry	11	12	13	15
Wesley Clark	9	10	--	--
Carol Moseley Braun	5	4	5	4
Bob Graham	5	5	6	6
John Edwards	5	5	5	6
Al Sharpton	3	2	3	2
Dennis Kucinich	2	2	2	2
Other	1	1	1	1
No One	5	4	5	4
No Opinion	14	12	15	13
RV = Registered Voters
NA = National Adults

Trends for Comparison:

	2003 Aug 25-26		2003 Aug 4-6		2003 Jul 25-27		2003 Jun 12-18		2003 May-Jun		2003 Apr 22-23
	NA	RV	NA	RV	NA	RV	NA	RV	NA	RV	NA	RV
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Joe Lieberman	23	23	17	18	20	21	20	21	21	20	23	22
Dick Gephardt	13	13	14	15	14	16	15	17	14	14	15	16
Howard Dean	11	12	14	15	10	11	6	7	5	5	6	6
John Kerry	9	10	12	12	16	15	13	13	16	17	17	18
John Edwards	5	5	6	5	6	6	7	6	7	6	9	8
Carol Moseley Braun	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	3	4	4	4
Bob Graham	6	4	5	5	5	4	6	7	4	4	5	5
Al Sharpton	4	4	4	4	5	5	7	6	7	7	3	3
Dennis Kucinich	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	1	3	2	3	3
Wesley Clark	2	2	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Other	2	2	3	4	*	*	1	1	1	1	1	1
No One	8	7	6	5	3	2	5	5	4	5	5	5
No Opinion	12	12	12	10	13	12	13	11	15	15	9	9
RV = Registered Voters
NA = National Adults
* Less than 0.5%

[Timesink]

Note this line closely:

The support of most candidates is not related to voters' political philosophy, but Dean is a major exception. Among liberals, Dean receives 29% support, compared with 11% among moderates and 6% among conservatives.

This is Dean's Achilles' Heel. People who aren't hard-left Bush-haters don't want Dean. If Dean wins the nomination and stays on the left to shore up his base, normal people won't even consider him. But if he starts moving to the center (well, what passes for the "center" in the Democratic Party, anyway), his hardcore supporters will abandon him, and normal people will still be repelled by him. Either way, he's screwed.

Which means we should all hope he wins the Democratic nomination! Go Howie!

[Timesink]

bump for bump lists

[Timesink]

bump

[Timesink]

bump

[Timesink]

Possibly of use to the Misc ping list?

[nutmeg]

Yes, thanks for the ping. I'll grab the 'Misc' list now.

[nutmeg]

ping!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.

[snooker]

gravitas where are you

[Tabi Katz]

"Among liberals, Dean receives 29% support, compared with 11% among moderates and 6% among conservatives."

Kind of have to wonder when those 6% of "conservative" voters will take their heads out of the oven.

[Timesink]

Kind of have to wonder when those 6% of "conservative" voters will take their heads out of the oven.

I'm guessing those 6% are far-far-far-right loons that are so angry over something that they just want to vote for whoever they think will most screw over the Republican Party.

[Tabi Katz]

"I'm guessing those 6% are far-far-far-right loons that are so angry over something that they just want to vote for whoever they think will most screw over the Republican Party."

Either that or they're veterans of public education who have no clue what the word "conservative" means.

[okie01]

"Kind of have to wonder when those 6% of "conservative" voters will take their heads out of the oven."

The poll was conducted among "registered Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic" only.

Thus, those describing themselves as "conservative" were using Leon Trotsky as their point of reference.

[HitmanLV]

The way I see it, Bush doesn't stand a chance to win most of the Gore states from 2000. I think Of Gore's 19 states, Bush will win Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and maybe Pennsylvania, if the wind is at his back.

I don't care who the dem nominee is, they will win the whole left coast, hawaii, most of the northeast down to jersey, Illinois, etc. Everything Gore won, minus 3 or 4 of those states I mentioned above. That's a Bush win of 320 EVs or so - a solid victory, but no landslide.

Whether it is Dean or Clark, or Hillary for that matter, those states are history, at least for now. Talk of 'normal' people doesn't matter much. Bush can win the popular vote 52-48, for example, or 53-47, and I still don't see him winning those 15 heavily democratic states.

The good news: I don't see the dems winning many of the Bush 31 states. Indeed, they have more states to lose going into 2004 than Bush does. This goes for Clark also, who won't win the south, and may not even win his home state for the Dems.