[Timesink]

Note this line closely:

The support of most candidates is not related to voters' political philosophy, but Dean is a major exception. Among liberals, Dean receives 29% support, compared with 11% among moderates and 6% among conservatives.

This is Dean's Achilles' Heel. People who aren't hard-left Bush-haters don't want Dean. If Dean wins the nomination and stays on the left to shore up his base, normal people won't even consider him. But if he starts moving to the center (well, what passes for the "center" in the Democratic Party, anyway), his hardcore supporters will abandon him, and normal people will still be repelled by him. Either way, he's screwed.

Which means we should all hope he wins the Democratic nomination! Go Howie!

[Timesink]

bump for bump lists

[nutmeg]

ping!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.

[snooker]

gravitas where are you

[Tabi Katz]

"Among liberals, Dean receives 29% support, compared with 11% among moderates and 6% among conservatives."

Kind of have to wonder when those 6% of "conservative" voters will take their heads out of the oven.

[HitmanLV]

The way I see it, Bush doesn't stand a chance to win most of the Gore states from 2000. I think Of Gore's 19 states, Bush will win Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and maybe Pennsylvania, if the wind is at his back.

I don't care who the dem nominee is, they will win the whole left coast, hawaii, most of the northeast down to jersey, Illinois, etc. Everything Gore won, minus 3 or 4 of those states I mentioned above. That's a Bush win of 320 EVs or so - a solid victory, but no landslide.

Whether it is Dean or Clark, or Hillary for that matter, those states are history, at least for now. Talk of 'normal' people doesn't matter much. Bush can win the popular vote 52-48, for example, or 53-47, and I still don't see him winning those 15 heavily democratic states.

The good news: I don't see the dems winning many of the Bush 31 states. Indeed, they have more states to lose going into 2004 than Bush does. This goes for Clark also, who won't win the south, and may not even win his home state for the Dems.