Posted on 08/30/2003 1:41:36 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2003
...FABIAN BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM... EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FABIAN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N... 49.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
Nope.
They're going to use "afro-centric" names, i.e.: Tawana, Ayisha, Tashanda, et al.
It has already been proposed by a Congresswoman.
Seems that the naming of hurricanes is one of the last bastions of racism that needs affrimative action.
Be sure to tell us when it's over! ;-)
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003
THE EYE HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY AND CAN NOT BE CLEARLY OBSERVED WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EYE IS VERY DISTINCT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE SSM/I DATA. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A BIT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE KEPT AT 110 KNOTS. THE TRUE INTENSITY WILL BE KNOWN WHEN THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE HURRICANE EARLY MONDAY.
THE HURRICANE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE...AT THIS STAGE...THE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE PROBABLY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS.
FABIAN IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..PROVIDING A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE U.S COAST. A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET WILL SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT CONTROLLING THE PATH OF FABIAN LATER TODAY. WE SHALL SEE IF THE DATA IMPACTS THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER AVILA
Hope your stay at Wrightsville Beach is calm, soothing and uneventful (with no wind).
Being as you are the "2nd amendment Mama" you probably understand how down right nekkid I feel flying without my trusty .38 that normally stays in my purse all the time, period, no if ands or...!
How 'bout "Tyrone Shoelaces"then?
Favorite place to stop at at 1 am many years ago.
Pleasure, as long as we don't get slammed with a hurricane. My Mom lives in Wilmington and it's pig-pickin time at the family reunion. Actually, if there is a hurricane in the area I would rather my brother and I are there with Mom (she's 86) so what will be, will be.
Stay safe.
Hope you're not in the path of this storm! Fabian is the most intense 'Cane since Mitch. Only Gilbert in the 80s was stronger at 888 MB.
WTNT35 KNHC 010229 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2003 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE FABIAN STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740 KM...EAST OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...FABIAN IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE EXACT STRENGTH OF FABIAN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 54.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
The most intense storm in recorded history was Hurricane Gilbert in the late 80's at 888 millibars.
All interests along the Eastern Coast as well as the Islands should closely monitor this very dangerous hurricane.
Some are even comparing the present track to the infamous "Long Island Express" hurricane of 1938 that devasted the NE.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.