ABC(7) Los Angeles Recall Election Poll - (Democrats Savaged)

ABC(7) Los Angeles ^ | 08/27/2003 | ABC(7) Staff

[DoughtyOne]

ABC(7) Los Angeles Recall Election Poll
Released 08/27/2003

I'd like to ask supporters of both camps to be civil on this thread.
I support McCintock staying in this race at least until September 20th, I hope others agree.

Results below

ABC(7) LOS ANGELES LINK — The candidates vying to be California's next Governor have only been campaigning for a few weeks, but we've already seen front runners lose their lead in the polls - only to move back up again.

An exclusive Eyewitness News poll conducted by Survey USA, shows Arnold Schwarzenegger has a wide lead again, with support of 45-percent of registered voters. Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante has 29-percent.

Our exclusive survey could come as a surprise to some. It only counts registered voters who say they will cast a ballot October 7. The poll is based on 591 California residents who say they are certain to vote Oct. 7.

Though the Republican vote is splintered Arnold Schwarzenegger would win office today even though Cruz Bustamante is winning endorsements.

The numbers are reversing since August 11th survey.

Tom McClintock and Peter Uberroth top the rest of the field and the survey could give Governor Gray Davis some concern. If the recall election were today, he would be ousted by 64-percent of the vote with only a 35-percent vote of confidence.

ABCNews Political Director Mark Halperin is not surprised our poll differs from others. He believes no one has a lock on the race yet.

Halperin says, "There has been different polling showing Arnold Schwarzenegger up and down. It's hard to know where he stands. We know Arnold Schwarzenegger has a nice base of support and Cruz Bustamante has a nice base of support. The question is where will the undecided voter end up on Election Day."

Survey USA's Director of Election Polling says what makes this race different is there are brand new voters-- energized by this unique race. He thinks the turnout will be higher than the 54-percent voting in the governor's race last year.

Just who will go to the polls in six weeks is hard to predict because they expect a lot of people who didn't vote for Governor last year.

The poll will not be conducted over the Labor Day weekend -- our next survey is in two weeks when the election is one month away. The field of candidates and campaign issues could be different.

 
 
 

These are quite a contrast to the Los Angeles Times, it's poll's outcome and the methods they employed.

Look at the simple questions answered.  Nothing doctored here.  (That I can see.)

Polls are interesting, but we shouldn't put too much trust in them.  They have been, are and will be manipulated.
 

How the L.A. Times' Pro-Bustamante Poll Is Bogus

[DoughtyOne]

Please folks, let's pull together, not fight each other.  Say positive things about your man.  Leave the other guy to be savaged by the Democrats.

[prarie earth]

This is what they were talking about on the Hugh Hewitt show baby!

[Mo1]

Please folks, let's pull together, not fight each other. Say positive things about your man

That sounds like a good idea

[babble-on]

KABC is a conservative talk radio station. Anyone know whether or not this poll should be taken seriously? I'm skeptical of overly good news as well as the incredibly bad, I guess.

[TheRightGuy]

Please folks, let's pull together, not fight each other. Say positive things about your man.

... and if you don't have anything nice to say, say it to a democrat!

[Recourse]

Go Arnold, go

[GraniteStateConservative]

SurveyUSA is very reputable with a good track record.

http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html

[ambrose]

SurveyUSA's poll is discussed here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/971404/posts

The thread includes some fairly informative comments from SurveyUSA's director of polling.

It should be noted that SurveyUSA had a pretty good track record during the 2002 election cycle.

[lepton]

Mark Halperin. I know that name from somewhere else. Was he a Clintonite?

[ambrose]

Notice this keyword "26KDOLLARWELFARETOM"?

Seems the Ahnold folks keep trying to pick fights...

[Revolting cat!]

Please folks, let's pull together, not fight each other.

Oh yeah? You're really asking for it, ain't ya!

[EllaMinnow]

A rep of SurveyUSA was posting earlier today - I'll try to find him. He explained his interpretation of these results vis a vis the LA Times poll.

[EllaMinnow]

Mark Halperin was a speechwriter for Bob Dole.

[BurbankKarl]

I like how the LA Times poll has a 40% margin of error

[EllaMinnow]

Ping.

[William McKinley]

The LATimes' poll should have struck us as ludicrous on its face. While in your liberal mecca of California, D1, it was perfectly reasonable to see a poll showing the Democrat out in front, the poll they produced had Schwarzenegger with an unfavorable rating above 40%. There is no way that the popular movie icon would have such high negatives. While it is quite possible that there are many people who do not think he is qualified, that is a far cry from saying that you have an unfavorable impression of him.

I will wager that we will not see another polling company release a poll that has Arnold with an unfavorable rating above 30 until the very end of the campaign.

[Urbane_Guerilla]

If I were a Californian, I would vote for Mc. But if A.S. promised to appoint Mc Lt Gov, that might sway my vote. Is that do-able, both legally and practically?

[A CA Guy]

How did the DNC let these polls get out?

[DryFly]

Cruz is Lt. Gov if Arnold wins.

[Revolting cat!]

It was Mark Helprin, who for a time wrote speeches for Dole, then quit over some principle. He's also, and mainly, a fiction writer. Check him out. He's a fine political commentator and a military historian who used to write a regular column for the Wall Street Journal, and the FORBES supplement magazines.

There is also a Mark Halperin who's a poet.