Times Poll shows Bustamante With Lead

LA Times ^ | August 24, 2003 | Mark Z. Barabak

[DodgeRam]

Times Poll Shows Bustamante Leads Schwarzenegger in Recall Race By Mark Z. Barabak Times Staff Writer

6:58 PM PDT, August 23, 2003

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a wide lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race to succeed Gov. Gray Davis, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds the Republican vote splintered among several GOP contenders.

As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.

Schwarzenegger received 22% support, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.

Simon abruptly quit the race today, after the poll was completed. He said that "there are too many Republicans" running and expressed concern that his candidacy would undercut GOP efforts to oust Davis and replace the Democrat with one of their own.

[Torie]

If one adds the Simon vote to McClintock's, he is close to Arnold's. It in not yet clear to me that McClintock would lose to Bustamante if Arnold dropped out. But one of the two must drop out before the finale. Bustamante is going to get close to 40% of the vote at the end. If neither does, Bustamante will have the clear lead, and the recall will probably fail. Just a guess.

[Revolting cat!]

I hear the poll shows that support for the real busta montes is rising!

[DodgeRam]

data from poll:
The actor won the support of 39% of likely Republican voters, 20% of independents and 7% of Democrats polled. McClintock received 21% of the Republican vote, Simon received 12% and Ueberroth 10%.

[Torie]

Well the poll has a weighting of 43% Pubbies and 45% Dem, so I think it is indeed likely voters, as claimed. But the poll could be wrong. What this poll does show, is that Arnold isn't cutting much into the Dem base.

[Princeliberty]

It is the Arnold people are who saying we should
vote for a candidate based on polling therefore
they should be the ones concerned.

The poll is different since it is taken after
the Arnold mania even the PPIC was taken
over number days including the first week,
that is the only reason Arnold showed better
in it than the Field poll.

The downward trend of Arnold seems clears.
But not to worry as time passes it will only
be clearer as Arnold goes down down and down.

Once he drops much further the poll chasers
will start leaving him and he may finish
in single digits.

The hope is he would then drop out so McClintock
can win.

Arnold can't esp. if you look at the way he negatives
are zooming northward.

[Mr. Mojo]

But one of the two must drop out before the finale

No question about it. Neither Arnold or McClintock has a chance if they both run. I'd imagine that if one of them has a clear lead right before the election that the other will concede. ....That is, if "Red" Davis is even recalled.

[Mr. Mojo]

Now that's a candidate I can, uh, get behind.

[FairOpinion]

"The actor won the support of 39% of likely Republican voters, 20% of independents and 7% of Democrats polled. McClintock received 21% of the Republican vote, Simon received 12% and Ueberroth 10%."

==

Arnold needs the other 61%,

Note that Arnold outpolled McClintock 2 to 1 among Republican likely voters.

[Princeliberty]

Arnold negatives are zooming northward.
Far higher than McClintock's.
He is the one who cannot win.

And Arnold only going to weaken.
McClintock only to get stronger.

McClintock going to pass Arnold up before
October 7. A vote for Arnold is the wasted vote.

[DodgeRam]

McClintock has been a declared candidate much longer than Arnold, plus he ran a statewide campaign less than a year ago yet he can't break 12%. Also receiving less than 25% of the republican vote.

[ambrose]

Also shows that Ahnold has never recovered from the Prop. 13/Warren Buffett situation.

[djr]

Like everyone else around here, I'm partial to McClintock's views and hope he can mount a real challenge. I heard him about a week ago on a talk radio station from LA that routinely features 1 hour of anti-illegal immigration themes. While his views and track-record have been excellent here, he had to practically be coached by the host to get some fire in his belly. Sorry to say, but it's a fact of life that the charisma factor is important.

However, now is not the time for either Arnold or McClintock to drop out. We need one of these 2 to win. If McClintock can overtake Arnold, all the more power to him. However, in perhaps 1 month, I hope all the Republican candidates can read the tea leaves and there be unity behind one remaining Republican standard bearer. Whether it be Arnold or McClintock, I'm voting for the guy that I think will win.

[DodgeRam]

The Times Poll contacted 1,351 California registered voters, including 801 voters deemed likely to vote, by telephone Aug. 16–21. The margin of sampling error for both registered and likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. To allow for analysis, the main sample was supplemented to provide a total of 125 Latino likely voters (margin of sampling error +/– 9 percentage points) and the samples were weighted to their state proportions.

Poll results can be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Surveys conducted during busy campaign seasons are also subject to influence by news events. Several such events took place during this survey period. Davis, Schwarzenegger, Ueberroth and Bustamante held press conferences. Schwarzenegger launched a TV ad campaign and his "economic summit" on the topic of the California economy was widely covered in the news. While the survey was not designed to track shifts in public perception on a daily basis, it did pick up movement toward increased support for the recall as well as increased support for Schwarzenegger's candidacy in the last two days.

[spokeshave]

"Conservatives can too often be too given to shooting themselves in their feet, hands and heads in the name of doctrinal purity."

It's called a six-pack....wrists, elbows and knees.

[Princeliberty]

By mid-September McClintock will be second place
clearly ahead of Arnold.

Simon's support going all to McClintock.

And Arnold heading south with far higher negatives
than anyone else running.

He can't unite the Republicans McClintock can!

[ambrose]

Looks like Schwarzenrino is flopping big time. He may even cost us the entire recall election.

Thanks a lot, poll chasing bandwagoners.

[deport]

What this poll does show, is that Arnold isn't cutting much into the Dem base.

---

Oh boy.... the others are doing a fantastic job of cutting into the dem base..... huh?

I have no idea what the overall internals of this poll are. I know it may well be a push poll. Giving some time I think things will settle out. But this is going to be a fast moving, I expect very nasty and fluid next 44 Days...

You all will have a fun time for the next few weeks....

[FairOpinion]

You misread the latino vote results:

"Bustamante winning the support of 51% of likely Latino voters, followed by McClintock with 13% and Schwarzenegger at 12%."

I think I read the fraction of latino voters in CA is about 16% of the total. ( I am not sure, and can't find the great site, which had all the various demographics of CA voters)

So 8% of the 35% of Bustamante's votes come from latinos, and about 3% of Arnold's 22% comes from latinos and also approx. 3% of McClintock's 12% comes from latinos.

[Princeliberty]

Arnold has 100% name ID.

And Arnold has negatives way higher than McClintock's.

Arnold was at 51% with McClintock at 6% two weeks
ago!

[lewislynn]

What this poll does show, is that Arnold isn't cutting much into the Dem base.

You admittedly voted for him last time, so you'll be voting for Gray Davis AGAIN, or will it be Bustamante this time?...After all, lawyers are "Dem. base" aren't they?