[Torie]

If one adds the Simon vote to McClintock's, he is close to Arnold's. It in not yet clear to me that McClintock would lose to Bustamante if Arnold dropped out. But one of the two must drop out before the finale. Bustamante is going to get close to 40% of the vote at the end. If neither does, Bustamante will have the clear lead, and the recall will probably fail. Just a guess.

[Mr. Mojo]

But one of the two must drop out before the finale

No question about it. Neither Arnold or McClintock has a chance if they both run. I'd imagine that if one of them has a clear lead right before the election that the other will concede. ....That is, if "Red" Davis is even recalled.

[Princeliberty]

Arnold negatives are zooming northward.
Far higher than McClintock's.
He is the one who cannot win.

And Arnold only going to weaken.
McClintock only to get stronger.

McClintock going to pass Arnold up before
October 7. A vote for Arnold is the wasted vote.

[FairOpinion]

"Bustamante is going to get close to 40% of the vote at the end. "

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That's my prediction as well. Considering that there are 45% Dems and 15% misc groups more aligned with Dems, the 40% is more a minimum for Bustamante, he could even get more.

The only way a Republican, any Republican can beat him, considering that there are only 35-40% registered Republicans, if all Republicans unite behind one Republican, and also get a few Dem & indep. votes away from Bustamante.