Right gives Arnold second look

Washington Times ^ | Aug 21, 2003 | Ralph Z. Hallow

[FairOpinion]

Conservatives yesterday indicated more support for Arnold Schwarzenegger's bid to become governor of California.

But they still stood ready to jump to one of two other major Republican candidates if the "Terminator" star stumbles badly in the campaign to replace Democratic Gov. Gray Davis.

[FairOpinion]

And here are some facts and information that people may consider (it's from some of my posts): == Exhibit 1:

http://www.calvoter.org/parties.html

According to the above, up to date as of March 2003,

the number of registered voters breaks down as follows:

6.7 M Dems = 53% 5.3 M Rep. = 42% 0.67M "other" = 5%

53% DEMS!!!! That is 50% vote for Bustamante.

The only way to win, is to syphon off mod Dem votes.

There is no way McClintock can do that. Arnold could,maybe, IF almost all Republicans and a fraction of Dems voted for him.

====

Exhibit #2: Latest poll:

23% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican 18 Cruz Bustamante, Democrat

5 Tom McClintock, Republican 4 Bill Simon, Republican 4 Peter Ueberroth, Republican 3 Peter Camejo, Green Party 3 Arianna Huffington, Independent 8 Someone else (specify) 32 don’t know"

==

Considering the 3% margin of error:

-- Schwarzenegger and Bustamante are close -- IOW Bustamante could beat Arnold fairly easily, once the Dem machinery starts rolling

-- McClintock and Simon are running neck and neck with the Green Party candide

=====

Exhibit #3:

"His supporters keep saying that all he needs to get elected is about 25% of the vote. "

===

This is a MAJOR FALLACY. IF there were NO Democrat in the race, or if there were half a dozen prominent Democrats in the race, to split the vote, and NO other Republican were running, then someone could win with 25%, and it could be McClintock, not that that would be a real high probability, but at least theoretically possible.

But that is NOT the situation today. McClintock supporters totally ignore the CURRENT REAL situation, which is, that :

-- there is only ONE Democrat running, there are 45% Dems in CA, the Dem machinery is not about to let go of CA and will do EVERYTHING to make sure Bustamante gets elected. So Bustamante is highly likely to get 40-50% of the vote.

-- If ALL the conservatives would vote for McClintock (35%), it still wouldn't be enough to beat Bustamante.

-- The ONLY way a Republican can win is by getting most of the Republican, a good fraction of independent, and even some Dem votes. There is NO way McClintock (or Simon) can do that. The ONLY one, who has a chance at beating Bustamante, is Arnold, IF he gets most Republican votes and then some I & D votes, then, maybe Bustamante will end up with 35% and Arnold with 40%.

Otherwise it's Governor Bustamante.

McClintock supporters need to wake up and smell the very different REAL situation, which exists, which is vastly different from the scenarios before the candidacies were announced, when they made up their minds to support McClintock to the death. ===

And one more thing, I think the longer McClintock and Simon stay in the race and keep attacking Arnold, the more they increase the chances of fewer people voting for Arnold, resulting in more votes for Bustamante.

From the information above it should be clear to everyone that McClintock or Simon have zero chance of winning, but they could well keep Arnold from winning as well. Right now everyone is attacking Arnold, nobody is attacking Bustamante.

People hated Davis, and still enough Dems voted for him to reelect him. Now they will be voting for Bustamante, unless Arnold can get a few of those voters, which may not be possible, after the other Republicans keep tearing Arnold down. The Dems will just shrug and punch in for Bustamante.

[Reagan Man]

Why in God's name, would any conservative support a liberal for California Governor? Not only is Arnold a liberal, he's a RINO too. Arnold says, he doesn't have to supply specific figures about where he would cut the budget, because the people don't care about figures. Say what?!

[PhilDragoo]

George P. Shultz

George P. Shultz is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was sworn in on July 16, 1982, as the sixtieth U.S. secretary of state and served until January 20, 1989. In January 1989, he rejoined Stanford University as the Jack Steele Parker Professor of International Economics at the Graduate School of Business and a distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution.

He is a member of the board of directors of Bechtel Group, Fremont Group, Gilead Sciences, Unext.com, and Charles Schwab & Co. He is also chairman of the International Council of J. P. Morgan Chase and on the advisory committee of Infrastructureworld.

He was awarded the Medal of Freedom, the nation's highest civilian honor, on January 19, 1989. He also received the Seoul Peace Prize (1992), the Eisenhower Medal for Leadership and Service (2001), and the Reagan Distinguished American Award (2002).

His publications include Economic Policy Beyond the Headlines(2d edition), cowritten with Kenneth Dam (University of Chicago Press, 1998), and his best-selling memoir, Turmoil and Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State (Charles Scribner's Sons, 1993).

He recently authored the monograph Economics in Action: Ideas, Institutions, Policies (Hoover Essays in Public Policy, 1995).

He also authored Economic Policy Beyond the Headlines (1978); Workers and Wages in the Urban Labor Market (1970); Guidelines, Informal Controls, and the Market Place (1966); Management Organization and the Computer (1960); and Labor Problems: Cases and Readings (1953).

From 1981 until his appointment as U.S. secretary of state, Shultz was chairman of President Ronald Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board.

He became secretary of the Treasury in May 1972, serving until May 1974. During that period he also served as chairman of the Council on Economic Policy. As chairman of the East-West Trade Policy Committee, Shultz traveled to Moscow in 1973 and negotiated a series of trade protocols with the Soviet Union. He also represented the United States at the Tokyo meeting of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

In 1974, he left government service to become president and director of Bechtel Group, where he remained until 1982. While at Bechtel, he maintained his close ties with the academic world by joining the faculty of Stanford University on a part-time basis.

Shultz served in the administration of President Richard Nixon as secretary of labor for eighteen months, from 1969 to June 1970, at which time he was appointed director of the Office of Management and Budget.

From 1968 to 1969, he was a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford.

In 1957, Shultz was appointed professor of industrial relations at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. He was named dean of the Graduate School of Business in 1962.

He taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1948 to 1957, taking a year's leave of absence in 1955 to serve as senior staff economist on the President's Council of Economic Advisers during the administration of President Dwight Eisenhower.

Shultz holds honorary degrees from the universities of Columbia, Notre Dame, Loyola, Pennsylvania, Rochester, Princeton, Carnegie-Mellon, City University of New York, Yeshiva, Northwestern, Technion, Tel Aviv, Weizmann Institute of Science, Baruch College of New York, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Tbilisi State University in the Republic of Georgia, and Keio University in Tokyo.

Shultz graduated from Princeton University in 1942, receiving a B.A. degree in economics. That year he joined the U.S. Marine Corps and served through 1945. In 1949, Shultz earned a Ph.D. degree in industrial economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

~~~

Arnold Schwarzenegger featured his advisor George Schultz at his roll-out press conference yesterday.

Ronald Reagan's Secretary of State.

[KellyAdmirer]

That is a very cogent analysis. I think, though, that having McClintock sticking around to the right of Arnold for a while will actually help Arnold, by making Arnold appear more moderate. Appearing too conservative is death in California statewide politics.

You could hear it on these forums - "Arnold didn't promise to cut education spending, Arnold said he might raise taxes if the roof falls in, thus he is not a REAL conservative" - that kind of hard-line carping will actually help Arnold win over the center of the electorate by making him sound softer than he probably really is.

Joe Average SanFranciscoResident and Mary Average LosAngelesLady don't want to vote for someone the real conservatives support, that wouldn't be "cool" and would be counter to their hatred of conservatives for a host of reasons unrelated to this election. They will follow their media masters and pull the lever for anybody else. But a moderate/right candidate that the conservatives are dissing all over California - now him Joe and Mary Average might feel comfortable supporting.

McClintock isn't getting much more than the Green vote, and less than the combined Green/Huffington left-wing wacko vote, so he is not draining too many votes from Arnold - votes that might never go to nobody other than an uncompromising conservative like McClintock anyway.

There's absolutely no reason for Simon or Ueberroth to be in the race, though. They add absolutely nothing.

[RJayneJ]

Quote of the Day by NortNork

[Reagan Man]

George Shultz's public service credentials are impressive.

Except, George Shultz isn't running for Governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger is and so far, Arnold's rhetoric isn't specific and his agenda is vague.

Arnold says he is a social liberal and a fiscal conservative. Hmmm. Conservatives need to open their eyes and see Arnold for what he is, a liberal RINO.

Here's what Tom McClintock said about Arnold's politics.

"I have always thought that one of the phoniest claims in California politics is that 'I'm a fiscal conservative but a social liberal,' which always invites the question: 'How do you plan to pay for your socially liberal programs with your fiscally conservative policies?'"
Tom McClintock, California State Senator and Candidate for Governor.

[FairOpinion]

Check out the odds.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/968394/posts

Vegas oddsmaker: Schwarzenegger slim favorite in recall race

Republican Schwarzenegger as a 7-5 pick to be the state's next governor.

Peter Ueberroth (12-1) and businessman Bill Simon (20-1), are followed by two candidates at 40-1 odds, independent commentator Arianna Huffington and Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock. Green Party candidate Peter Camejo is a 50-1 pick.




AND:

tradesports.com:

http://www.tradesports.com/

The value is the % chance they think it will happen.

Arnold: 52-55
Bustamante: 28-31
Simon 1.9-2.9
McClintock 0.6 -2.0

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

calgov2002:

Gray Must Pay
Cruz Must Lose

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. 

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register

[FairOpinion]

Good quote and great cartoons.

[Russell Scott]

If Simon-Peter (biblical pun) drop out, in a 3 way race Tom has an excellent chance.

[FairOpinion]

"If Simon-Peter (biblical pun) drop out, in a 3 way race Tom has an excellent chance. "

==

Please read my post #1 & #4 carefully.

[CurlyDave]

the number of registered voters breaks down as follows: 6.7 M Dems = 53% 5.3 M Rep. = 42% 0.67M "other" = 5%

Well here is one registered RAT who only did it because Reverend Al needs my vote in the RAT primary.

[DoctorZIn]

PING!

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[The Old Hoosier]

Appearing too conservative is death in California statewide politics.

Everyone says this, but I can't think of a single example where it's true. That's not what killed Simon last year.

There's absolutely no reason for Simon or Ueberroth to be in the race, though. They add absolutely nothing.

Amen to that.

[RJayneJ]

Thanks! };^D)

[MrNatural]

But McClintock can't hang on too long. I see his real goal being the US Senate; and to challenge Boxer next year he will need the California GOP behind him. He won't have that if he runs a bitter, spoiler to-the-end race against Arnold. If he waits too long, he runs the risk of Arnold's candidacy becoming so strong that it doesn't matter if he stays or goes. He has to come to terms with Arnold while he still has leverage; while his support can be a help. Darryl Issa bowed out at the right time, so as not to hurt the main effort of getting rid of Davis, and covered himself with glory. Bill Simon, on the other hand, is busily hammering nails into his own political coffin. Tom McClintock can go either way.

I expect Tom bow out in Arnold's favor within the next 2 weeks. Then next year against Boxer, he has the support of the grateful state GOP, anchored by the grateful Governor Schwarzenegger. I hope he goes that way; he has a promising career ahead of him if he doesn't get impatient.

[Tamzee]

Excellent demographic breakdown, FairOpinion, and the information on Schultz is very helpful and reassuring, Mr. Dragoo, sir :-)

And thanks for the ping!

[goldstategop]

I was impressed by Arnold's performance at yesterday's presser. Interestingly enough both of the Los Angeles Times liberal columnists thought he hit it out of the ball park. In particular George "Slumberin" Skelton, the Times Sacramento bureau chief panned Gray Davis' performance the other day. He wrote Davis was a dud, acted like a victim, and took no responsibility for what he did as Governor. Friends, if this is what the LAT's liberal columnists tell you, you better believe Davis is good as gone. The only questioning remaining is who is gonna replace him.

[ambrose]

RINO

[Tamzee]

I sure do hope you are right, Mr. Natural... or is that Mr. MrNatural? ;-)

It does sound like a promising plan and McClintock would be an incredible asset to the whole country as a Senator!