[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[DaughterOfAnIwoJimaVet]

OMG - LOL

[Patrick1]

Isn't the Field Poll notoriously unreliable? Other polls show Ahnold well ahead. I agree that Bustamove will get the Davis vote but nothing else, I don't think that will be enough on election day to come anywhere near winning, Ahnold will probably take it with about 38% of the vote.

Simon and Uberroth will go no where and the die hards will stick with McClintock and put him at around 8 or 9% and a third place finish.

Remember we should not be afraid of winning! The Governor of California has nothing to do with abortion. It is a non-issue in this campaign, is the Terminator the perfect conservative, no. Can he start California on the long road back from the liberal wilderness, yes.

[Bonaparte]

".... I'd even question the valitiy of this poll..."

So would I. It's a California Field poll, notoriously biased and unreliable. I have to agree with the Davis guy. It's too early and too fluid for polls to have much predictive power for electoral outcome.

[DiamondDon1]

Hey RonDog!

We in the McClintock camp still believe we can win.

Currently, Arnold is imploding without us firing a shot. Keep an open mind to what Tom has to say, and be ready to jump ship...

Fear not, on October 7th we will not be split, it will be Tom or Arnold.

Assuming Arnold was in single digits, and Tom was in double digits would you still want Arnold over Tom???

Just wondering...

DD

[McGavin999]

We welcome all the conservatives we can get. We're overwhelmed with liberals moving here too and buying up the property in my neighborhood like there was no tomorrow. I meet them every month at the neighborhood association meeting. Big L liberals, all.

In addition, they are moving into Gilbert in HUGE quantities and you can identify them by the way they are fighting any new power plant development.

I have friends who live in Prescott and they said over the last few years the place is crawling with liberals and rich hippy types.

[Pubbie]

More detail on the poll.

[B Knotts]

9 * 5 = 22

That's some interesting math.

[Munson]

I believe in specialisation. Have conservatives run in murrieta or redding while rinos run in long beach and san jose. Wola! Then we could have a rino and conservative elected for the senate in the next few years. Then we can save our state.

[B Knotts]

Unfortunately, I think the Republicans will give the election to the Democrats because they are too busy arguing over who is or isn't conservative enough.

I've got an idea for next time around. Let's run Clinton as a Republican. He could win easily!

[B Knotts]

There is a way to slow it down. Get the president to force local government enforce immigration laws. It can be done, through federal fund manipulation. He just need to get on board.

[deport]

Let's run Clinton as a Republican. He could win easily!

---

LOL...... Heck, don't need to.... He had no problem winning as a democrat...... Repubs couldn't even mount a decent charge....

[B Knotts]

BTW, here is my estimated adjustment of the numbers, to remove Field's "special sauce":

Ahnold 23%
Bustamante 17%
McClintock 14%
Simon 12%
Ueberroth 6%

[B Knotts]

My point is you'd probably have 25% of the people on this board cheering him on!

[Bonaparte]

"If only Simon and Ueberroth would take a hint and get lost..."

Even if they do, their names will still appear on the Oct 7 ballot. Too late to do anything about that.

[WOSG]

McClintock is the only realistic Conservative choice. Anything else is another shade of Gray!

Simon bows out, PU goes down, that gives McClintock 20%. Ahnold shows his true RINO colors and it peels off another 10% of conservatives, while helping Ahnold to cut into the Democrat base.

McClintock wins with 34%, while Busta-move and AS get around 27% each.

For a replay of this kind of race, go look at recent Minnesota Gov races.

Who's up for telling Bill Simon the good/bad news?

[deport]

You maybe correct as we don't know the internals.... I'd bet they favor the democrats at this stage...

[montag813]

If McClintock and Simon were real conservatives, they would do whatever it took - including withdrawing from the race - to insure a democrat was not elected. Somehow, I don't think they're really conservatives.

It's early yet, and Arnold may imlode at any time, leaving us with no viable candidate if he makes an ass of himself. Seems prudent for them to stay in at least a few more weeks.

[WOSG]

Yes, Ahnold hires a Democrat to advise him ... that should tell you something... he is gong for the middle-of-road celebrity-following vote, a la Jesse Ventura.

Let AS run left, and split the Democrat vote so a Conservative could win ... that is our BEST hope.

[fish hawk]

When the republican pot boils down to nothing all that's left is EGO. We lose elections because of the ego of Simon and McClintock, a Rat wins again. When will we ever learn. If these two men lose us this election Republicans should see that they are run out of politics. Even Rush as much as I respect him is talking stupid lately. IMHO

[WOSG]

Forget poll numbers ... WHO WOULD MAKE THE BEST GOVERNOR???