Yes. Indeed, you ask the correct question. In fact, I've started to fear that the whole recall thing may have been a terrible mistake. "Be careful what you wish for; you might get it."
The most likely scenario seems to be: Gray-Out is recalled. Ahnold is elected to replace him, with 25% of the vote.
On the advice of his senior financial and economic advisor, he almost immediately raises taxes. On the brink of recovery, California's economy begins to tank again, as more businesses bail.
In response, Ahnold, again, on the advice of his senior financial and economic advisor, proposes to "pump up" spending on economic development, causing him to have to find more minor taxes and fees to raise. This causes further erosion in the small business sector.
About this time, to "save the schools," Ahnold proposes a bold new massive "infrastructure investment" in California public schools. The only way to pay for it is by repealing Prop. 13.
Ahnold, this time on the advice of Karl Rove, then refuses to do anything about Prop. 187, so as to not upset the Hispanic voters.
Flash to November, 2004: Bush loses California anyway.