[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[The Old Hoosier]

The Arnold numbers will fall further, too.

[grania]

Only the ultra-purists would prefer Nikita Dean as President.

I don't follow at all. Unless GWB loses his base, he wins the election. It's not Dean's (or anyone else's to win); if it were to happen it would take a major Republican blunder.

A real lot of Republicans will be Democrats on their primary day, since there is no race for us. <^..^> Anyone sensible will be voting against Dean in the primary, helping the Democratic faithful get rid of this danger to the nation.

Besides that, what track record does Arnold have? California is a mess. It needs an experienced, proven political figure to solve its problems...not someone with no track record in governing.

[The Old Hoosier]

Posted again: I just want to know, in the spirit of honest inquiry, and in the hope of maybe convincing someone: Is there one single stance Arnold has taken on anything that you agree with?

Honestly, now, this is not an attempt to bash anyone, I'm not calling anyone a RINO. I just want to know if you agree with any of his stated policy positions...anti-gun, pro-abortion, pro-sodomy, pro-big government (Prop 49).

One more thing--the fact that he voted for prop 187 does not mean he plans to enforce it or appeal it.

I'd love to hear someone answer this.

[Dog Gone]

Buffet is a political idiot. I despise him. However, I'm not sure that it was a bad PR move for Arnold to hire him.

The average person has no clue who Buffet is except that he's an exceptionally brilliant businessman. California is in dire need of someone who can fix its finances.

The two do not logically relate at all to those who understand California finances and Warren Buffet's political views. But they seem to do so for the vast majority of the underinformed.

Wow, Schwarzenegger has hired the most brilliant businessman in America to advise him, and he's a Democrat, too! Hallelujah! He's got my vote!

This will play in California. I'm sure of that.

[alwaysconservative]

Does anybody here really think that a candidate who "went ballistic" just because somebody asked him to look at the reality of how he is trashing the chances of the party, (Simon), has the right, uhm, temperament to become the standard bearer for the California GOP? If he were a front-runner, this would be a meltdown moment. As it is, it is a painful example of how Republicans manage to throw away perfectly good opportunities to win elections: ego, ego, ego.

[vbmoneyspender]

The average person has no clue who Buffet is except that he's an exceptionally brilliant businessman. California is in dire need of someone who can fix its finances.

The average voter in California may have no familiarity with Warren Buffet, but you can take it to the bank that the average voter in California is familiar with Proposition 13. What Buffet said about Prop 13 is getting big play on talk radio and the fact that Schwarzenegger himself hasn't come out disavowed what Buffet said is doing him some damage. Schwarzenegger needs to come and utterly disavow what Buffet said about Prop 13 and Schwarzenegger needs to do it quickly.

[Jorge]

Or, put more precisely, if the "stupid party" ever gets it's act together:
Bustamante - 25% Schwarzenegger = 22% + McClintock 9% Simon 8% + Ueberroth 5% = 44% = LANDSLIDE!

Unfortunately, I think the Republicans will give the election to the Democrats because they are too busy arguing over who is or isn't conservative enough.

[The Old Hoosier]

Here I disagree. "More sensible people" do not sacrifice everything they believe in for a hollow victory.

Amen.

Arnold is an unknown. If he wins, we have a Republican Party that has lost its social values.

Apparently, not just the social values, but everything else as well. He has not taken a conservative stand on any issue, yet people feel the need to support him because "he can win." Well, let's see what they're saying when his numbers go down even further.

[Redcloak]

Hmmm... If only Simon and Ueberroth would take a hint and get lost...

[Hildy]

Don't ya think maybe this poll is a little rigged? Don't you think the liberal media would love conservatives to think they really have a chance so the vote will split. I don't buy this for a second. Why on earth would McClintock be ahead so much. It's ridiculous.

[StarFan]

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official" Interesting that NY Times failed to mention the help he's getting from X42 on an almost daily basis. I believe they were the first to report that Bill and Hill planned to campaign for Davis.

[Dog Gone]

I'd be willing to bet that Arnold will do so. He doesn't want Buffet for his advice. He wants him for his name and reputation.

[deport]

Are 32% undecided?

---

This wasn't included but my guess is they are spread out among the remainder of the 135 candidates such as Huffington, the Libertarians, Greens, Independents and the Undecideds..... Maybe a better breakdown will come when the poll is issued tomorrow.

[goldstategop]

Some reputation. What kind of adviser has a political tin ear for California politics...

[Susannah]

I know four people that moved from California to Arizona and they are truly conservatives.

[Husker24]

This is gonna piss everyone off on this website, but, I think we would actually be better off if Bustamonte wins. First off Arnald aint no Republican, putting a Socialist like Buffet on his economic team proves that. I just have a feeling that Arnald doesnt have what it takes to do anything in California. When nothing improves the Democrats will blame the Republicans for the entire mess in Califronia, all because Arnald has an "R" in front of his name. I think this Bustamonte is probably worse than Davis. Some times you need to completely destroy something before you can build it back up again. With Bustamonte in power and a Democratic monopoly in the California state legislator there is nobody to blame but themselves. Perhaps if we are lucky the people will wake up in the next general election and elect some real conservatives in California, because what do they have to lose? the alternative clearly didnt work.

[vbmoneyspender]

He better do it quick. You should have heard what was going on the radio today. There is nothing that gets people more riled up here than talk about raising their property taxes. Even tripling the car tax doesn't compare to the fallout that can occur from talk of repealing Proposition 13. Basically, Prop 13 is untouchable because it is the only thing that enables a large percentage of the people who live here to be able to continue to afford their homes. Without Prop 13, anyone on a fixed income or anyone who has seen a downturn in their business would have real problems paying the property taxes that would otherwise be due on their homes if Dems got their way and were able to repeal Prop 13.

[Recourse]

Or if Perot hadn't run. Perot supporters would have voted for Bush 90-10%.

[deport]

Don't ya think maybe this poll is a little rigged?

---

Well polls can be made to show certain tendencies/results if that's the objective. However I'd guess Cruz is leading the group of Democrats and that Arnold is the leading Republican. Now the question is what are the real percentages.

Also what are the internals of the poll... they impact the outcome also.

[Recourse]

If Schwarzenegger gets out, Bustamante wins. It's that simple. McClintock has been hovering around 9-10% for weeks. He has no chance. He should withdraw. And so should Simon.