[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

Lazamataz: LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME SOMEONE PAY ATTENTION TO ME I AM RELEVANT SOMEONE PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO ME.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"... and a publicity hound/self promoter who is remarkable even by California standards:) Her candidacy should really be lumped with Gary Coleman in the show biz promotion category. "

Funny how she stalks all of Arnold's press conferences. He ought to get a restraining order.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"No...I'm out of here for now. We'll never agree on anything, and we'll never have one iota of impact on each others beliefs."

I agree. My goal at this point is to demonstrate to the other readers of this thread how utterly wrong and dangerous your political theories really are.

[Lazamataz]

Lazamataz: LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME SOMEONE PAY ATTENTION TO ME I AM RELEVANT SOMEONE PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO ME.

Naw. If it's attention I would seek, I've got a lot better ways of getting it.

I am here for one reason: to show the rest of the forum who you are. You are a Democrat Underground disruptor, at best, or at worst, a neo-fascist scumbag.

Count on me, on every day, in every place you are, to show the forum what you really are about.

Bad news for you: You've become my hobby.

[Carry_Okie]

You're from the flat earth school of political thinking, eh?

A personal attack! How kind of you to admit your frustration.

He's not reaching out to 'import' a constituency that votes 70% democrat.

He is importing illegal aliens to placate the Hispanic vote. What he gets is a vote that is 70% Democratic. Some genius.

He's speaking to the swing voters who decide elections. I suspect you're of the mindset that thinkis its not ok to give $1 to get back $2. You want your $1 for free.

No, you just don't understand that socialism doesn't work for anybody except those in power. It looks attractive to those swing constituencies when a candidate drops a load of carrots, but the real losers in statism are those very same swing voters.

This "centrist" crap has been sold to us for forty years. Was Nixon a success? Was Ford? Was BushI? No REAGAN was a success, and without him BushI would never have been president.

Maybe you should stay where you are and out of California politics.

[Carry_Okie]

Arnold.....you can NOT go from a Liberal to a Conservative without a liberal republican stepping stone like Arnold. It can't be done.

Bat guano. We went from Pat Brown and Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan.

[Lazamataz]

I agree. My goal at this point is to demonstrate to the other readers of this thread how utterly wrong and dangerous your political theories really are.

Dont you think it's wrong and dangerous to hold the views you hold, expressed best when you wrote "You say a lot of evil things about our President. I think you need to be held accountable for running your mouth and making these insulting, outragous claims. Like President Bush said, you're either with us or against us. I can only presume you're an enemy of this nation."

Is it true that you believe that anyone who makes comments that you deem 'evil' or 'outrageous' or even 'insulting' must be 'held accountable' as an 'enemy of this nation'?

How would you hold them accountable? Would you torture them? Hold them at Gitmo? Deport them? Tell me your exact fascist plans for the 'enemies of the state'.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Bad news for you: You've become my hobby."

I hope this new obession breaks you of your old hobby. Isn't it hard to type with such hairy palms?

[deport]

but both of them together don't make a majority. I wonder what the strategists make of this??

---

True not a majority but don't leave out the other 31% or so that isn't mentioned. Some of it is undecided but some goes to the others that are liberal, I'd guess.

Polls don't mean much at this stage other than a snapshot of the day, imo. No debates, no campaign ads, very little stump speeches, etc so things can change a lot in the next month or so.

Since this is a winner take all with no run off some of the normal things you'd see in a campaign may not apply here. The objective is to have one vote more than any other candidate so look for different strageties... What they will be I have no idea.

[Lazamataz]

We certainly don't share the same high level of intellect.

Certainly. Grania has a brain; you are functioning with the reptilian autonomous nervous system common to most lower orders.

Who cares if the domestic paperclip factory goes out of business?

Q.E.D.

[Lazamataz]

What would you know about that?

What I would know about that is that grania has cogent and vibrant arguments based on logic and reason; whereas all you have is goofy and meaningless ad hominums.

What would you know about that?

Q.E.D.

[Lazamataz]

What would you know about that?

What I would know about that is that grania has cogent and vibrant arguments based on logic and reason; whereas all you have is goofy and meaningless ad hominums.

You're clearly lacking size and capacity with many essential organs

Q.E.D.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

It is a 135 person field -- 47% (Bustamante/Arnold) is a huge, monstrous even, plurality in that size field. And that's how these numbers need to be viewed:

Top Four Candidates

Hard left - left leaning - centrist (Bustamante/Arnold) = 47%

Right - heavily right leaning (McClintock/Simon) = 17%

This is what people from the west coast keep saying over and over again: The Right can not win out here. By extension, that means McClintock and/or Simon can not win out here. These numbers bear that out more than anything else. If Arnold falters further (doubtful), it isn't McClintock or Simon that will reap the votes -- it's Ueberoth, or Bustamante, or some other more minor candidates. Those liberal and left-leaning and centrist votes in California will not go over to the conservatives, they will find some other outlet more closely aligned with their views.

[RJCogburn]

It's a no contest discussion, Laz.

T_C_L is a silly girl who has problems both with thinking and English.

[Lazamataz]

It's a no contest discussion, Laz. T_C_L is a silly girl who has problems both with thinking and English.

Perhaps. But her thinking is extremely dangerous to the country, especially when she branded people 'enemies of the state' for merely criticizing Dubya. Not even Clinton supporters when that far.

Therefore, I conclude: Best case, she's a Democrat Underground plant intent on showing conservatives in the worst light. Worst case: She's a fascist that Mussolini would be envious of.

In either case, I will not let her forget her words, and from now until the day I die, I will remind her of her fascism and demand that she defend it.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"It's a no contest discussion, Laz."

You both seem to have a little TOO much in common.

[grania]

We certainly don't share the same high level of intellect

One thing I've never been accused of is being dumb.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"One thing I've never been accused of is being dumb."

I'm not accusing you of being dumb. I have no doubt the potental to think in a reasonable fashion exists. My suspicion is you've been held hostage for so long to some sort of union that you can't help yourself. As opposed to someone like Laz, who has all the symptoms of a genetic or organic disability.

[grania]

Around here, we can always tell when someone has no rational way to defend their views. They result to silly personal attacks. Go to the playground and pick on some 6 year olds...you'd be really happy there.