[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[Texas_Dawg]

If McClintock and Simon were real conservatives, they would do whatever it took - including withdrawing from the race - to insure a democrat was not elected. Somehow, I don't think they're really conservatives.

I think they are conservatives. Just very, very, very selfish ones.

[gop_gene]

Do you think Ahhhhnald is a "real conservative"? Or is he just a liberal Democrat playing Republican to get elected?

That makes no sense. While I agree with you that AS is not very conservative (i.e. a Rockeferfeller/liberal republican, if anything), you're saying you think he's actually playing Republican to get elected? If that's the strategy, wouldn't it make more sense to play the liberal Democrat he supposedly is and make it more easier on himself to get elected in a liberal democrat state?

[FairOpinion]

"Your Governess is a demon sent straight from hell."

"You're absolutely right. The only reason she got in was because the Arizona republicans insisted on doing exactly what the California republicans are doing right now."

===

Then you know how I feel.

[LdSentinal]

Since Arnold announced last week, what overtures has he given to California conservatives? Nada.

He's hired Buffet, a Democrat socialist as a campaign advisor and now the pervert Rob Lowe, a Clinton fundamentalist. Is it no wonder Republicans are being attracted to McClintock and Simon? When Arnold gives something to conservatives regarding the issues, please let me know.

[LdSentinal]

Correction: Buffet is Arnold's economic advisor, who wants to dismantle Prop. 13.

[McGavin999]

Then you know how I feel.

I keep trying to warn them, but they won't listen.

[FairOpinion]

"Arnold Schwarzenegger has supported Prop. 13 for 25 years," said campaign spokesman Rob Stutzman, adding that the actor was the keynote speaker earlier this summer at an event honoring the silver anniversary of the passage of the property tax initiative credited with launching a national anti-tax revolution.

"Arnold is an admirer of Howard Jarvis (the late co-author of Prop. 13) and has referred to him as the original tax terminator," Stutzman said. "He will be a fierce protector of Proposition 13."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2003/08/16/RECALL.TMP

[ambrose]

Why didn't he say this himself? And why did they wait days to refute Buffett? Sorry, but the Buffett remarks stuck me as a trial balloon.

John & Ken were totally ripping into Ahnold today. Arnold should have picked up the phone and called them right away.

[Penner]

I agree, if 1 and 2 are reversed. October is long way off.

[tophat9000]

Of course, but once that they saw that the conservative grassroots was going to be successful in making the recall happen, they decided to highjack it, with their Riordan clone. They have been telling us to sit down and shut up while they "save the day" ever since.

Thank you! for saying the truth......I soooo sick to the national party pulling this crap on us

The kicker is were see the same crap here almost all from non Californians

If you don't live here ....butt out!...let me repeat that....butt out!...

Grassroots Californians making the recall happen..this is a special election they created....

So can we please have just one election without the National party F---ing it up ..... there always pulling the same crap over & over...

This bullshit really started with prop 187 ...the National Republican party was dead seat against it (no matter that Wilson and the prop 187 broke with the national party and won big)

Ever since the national party been trying to run the show to “save us”.....

(I swear there some EAST COAST Republican party think tank that has come up some time back with some model of what they think they need to win in California base to some bicoastal Hollywood stereotypes and a visit or two the LA and the bay area)

They wouldn’t know the Center Valley from the Inland Empire if you showed them on a map ....

Hell all they know of California is within 15 miles of the beach......

[FairOpinion]

"Of course, but once that they saw that the conservative grassroots was going to be successful in making the recall happen, they decided to highjack it, with their Riordan clone"

---

That's funny, coming from a McClintock supporter. Issa was the one who put in millions of his own personal money, without which the recall would have gone exactly nowhere. McClintock and Simon didn't put in a dime. They are the ones who are trying to ride in on Issa's money. Issa had the wisdom and decency to withdraw, to help the Republican party. McClintock and Simon,on the other hand insist on staying in the race and being spoilers.

[tophat9000]

Typo (one of many) Center Valley. should be Central Valley....

[tophat9000]

Issa had the wisdom and decency to withdraw, to help the Republican party.

I think Issa got his arm twisted HARD from some folks back in DC

[KQQL]

Here is why Arnie will sink, if he sticks with his RAT advisors..

Buffet to Arnie................Raise Property Taxes in CA...

[KQQL]

Here is why Arnie will sink, if he sticks with his RAT advisors..

Buffet to Arnie................Raise Property Taxes in CA...

[grania]

It never crossed my mind that some Paleo-Cons might vote in the 'rat primary to stop Dean. I suppose if you see little difference between the 'rats and the Republicans this stratagy makes some kind of twisted sense. Defeat the most liberal of the viable candidates and pray that Jesus comes back soon because all the candidates for Prez are evil.

And, I understand the neocon strategy but disagree. The risk of Dean winning might be slight, but is it worth it? Anything can happen on election day; it's like a one-game World Series would be. Who thought he'd get this far? Remember, Clinton was a "throw-a-way" who wasn't expected to win.

What's fascinating is that everyone who follows things seems to agree on one fact...we really, really don't want Dean to be President.

[grania]

While I agree with you that AS is not very conservative (i.e. a Rockeferfeller/liberal republican, if anything), you're saying you think he's actually playing Republican to get elected? If that's the strategy, wouldn't it make more sense to play the liberal Democrat he supposedly is and make it more easier on himself to get elected in a liberal democrat state?

I'll buy that. He's more likely a "Republican" as far as business-profit things are concerned and a "Democrat" for his social policies. His liberal social views don't represent a huge percentage of the Republican Party, not at all.

It is an issue for those of us who don't live in California, too. If the Party wins without considering what the social Conservatives believe in, it leaves us disenfranchised, with nowhere to go.

[ImpeachandRemove]

Fill me in here, Californians. Is it really true that prop 13 rolled back and then froze valuations in place, so that a millionaire who has lived in one mansion since that time pays less than a family starting out with a new starter home?

[ImpeachandRemove]

Let each candidate take his best shot until mid September or so. Then let each trailing candidate drop out and campaign with the front runner, whoever that is.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

Here we go again. The "shoot ourselves in the foot" wing of the GOP is splitting the vote, whereas the Dems are compromising and uniting behind a candidate in order to win a plurality of votes.