[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"The ONLY hope is to put a (R) in who can change things around and then we have the next few elections in the bag."

My goal is to defeat democrats. Only one person in the race can do that - the terminator. Your candidate - McClintock - is an ankle biting 3rd stringer who is AGAIN going to get his head handed to him.

[The Old Hoosier]

If Arnold is a real Republican, he'll get out now so McClintock can win.

[UCAL]

I think that this poll shows very little growth potential for Bustamante and lots of opportunity for the Republican front-runner as the election nears. With several weeks left to go, most voters are sticking with their candidate of choice with the hope that Arnold's campaign will suffer a meltdown due to gaffes or other missteps.

If you remember the 2000 election, Ralph Nader's support dropped precipitously on election day as his supporters decided not to "waste" their votes and pulled the lever for Gore.

If the polls remain frozen at around this level as Election Day nears, look for Arnold to move up rapidly. Yes, there will be a certain percentage of Simon, McClintock and Ueberroth supporters who will stick with their initial preference but significant numbers will swing behind whomever they think will win.

[Consort]

Then Clinton showed everybody what a real tax increase looked like. It as the voter's fault. If they had reelected Bush, the Clintons would be back in Arkansas today and all the scandals/impeachment, 370+ judges and 2 SCOTUS Justices would not have happened. That's the way it is.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"If Arnold is a real Republican, he'll get out now so McClintock can win."

McClinotock is the Alan Keyes of this race. Stupid, unprincipled and forever a loser.

[afuturegovernor]

The sad shape of the California Republican Party is the fault of conservatives and moderates alike. Both are responsible for election loss after loss. And both sides want to circle the wagons and fire inward rather than fight Democrats.

[thtr]

22+9+8+4+25=68 ? Are 32% undecided?

[The Old Hoosier]

OK, all the conservatives backing or thinking of backing I just want to know, in the spirit of honest inquiry, and in the hope of maybe convincing someone: Is there one single stance Arnold has taken that you agree with? Just one.

Honestly, now, this is not an attempt to bash anyone, I just want to know if you agree with any of his policies...

One more thing--the fact that he voted for prop 187 does not mean he plans to enforce it or appeal it.

[vbmoneyspender]

McClintock - is an ankle biting 3rd stringer

What kind of Republican breaks Reagan's 11th Commandment. Have you followed McClintock's career or even heard him talk? I don't think you would say that if you heard him discuss his positions. And why trash him in the first place when it is still possible that the Dems may dig up some dirt on Schwarzenegger that may severely damage Arnold to the point that McClintock has to become the Republican frontrunner?

[section9]

You are, of course, dead on. The GOP is once again dividing its forces. All Bustamante has to do is remain where he is.

Now, as mentioned above, we don't know what the turnout model is for this race-it's completely unprecedented. I suspect that they are using the 2000 model because its turnout was higher than 2002. Anyway, that's just a guess on my part.

If Arnold starts going to the public and campaigning, as in real deal campaigning, and starts getting traction, then it will be time for Simon, McClintock, and Ueberroth to bail. Arnold will start picking up Republicans who want their vote to "count". It's just like Simon to blow a gasket when asked to retire from the field, btw. The guy is a doofus.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[grania]

Bush is a winner.

Absolutely. But, is he sacrificing his conservative values for this win?

More sensible people prefer victory over defeat. What I call Arnold is a winner

Here I disagree. "More sensible people" do not sacrifice everything they believe in for a hollow victory.

Arnold is an unknown. If he wins, we have a Republican Party that has lost its social values. If he loses, do we have anything left at all?

[Ann Archy]

Warren Buffet will LOSE this election for Arnold! Is Arnold sabotaging his own candidacy or is his wife or does he think that Buffet is a Republican???

Arnold...you are an IDIOT for hiring Buffet.

[Consort]

It still looks like:

1. Cruz
2. No Recall
3. The rest of the field.

[goldstategop]

Only the ultra-purists would prefer Nikita Dean as President. <shudder

[Rabid Dog]

"I am pro-life, pro-gun, pro-immigrant and pro-government. If you don't like America, you can leave."

From your webpage. No wonder you don't like Tom. You are pro-government and he isn't. Good thing you don't live in CA.

[RonDog]

I think that this poll shows very little growth potential for Bustamante...

I wish that you were correct.

Unfortunately, it is much MORE likely that as the election approaches, the RAT-enablers will begin to rally round this bum in DROVES - to protect their meal ticket.

We need Arnold's media expertise and "left-wing" appearance to pull together enough "mainstream" Californians to counter the combined power of the lifetime government bureaucrats, the union thugs, and the trail lawyers, etc. - who have helped to elect RATs to virtually every OTHER position in this state.

[The Old Hoosier]

Simon can throw his support to McClintock--they're both conservatives so it will stick.

Maybe half of Arnold's people can go for McClintock after Arnold implodes in the coming days, to avoid letting Bustamante win.

[Ann Archy]

You really are delusional....Arnold has 5....FIVE TIMES the percentage that McClintock has!!!!

[The Old Hoosier]

I am pro-life, pro-gun, pro-immigrant and pro-government. If you don't like America, you can leave.

I can't see how someone who believes what you do could ever support Arnold Schwarzenegger, an anti-gun, pro-abortion, pro-homosexual agenda liberal.

[The Old Hoosier]

His support is very squishy. How many people just think it's cool for the terminator to be governor? That's why his numbers have been so volatile.